NFL Week 13 Predictions and Picks for the Late Afternoon Games: Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship Rematch?

Check out our NFL Week 13 predictions, including NFL picks for every game in the late afternoon, including the NFC Championship Game rematch.

The biggest game today is obviously the NFC Championship Game rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. When the NFL betting lines came out last Sunday, many people were surprised to see the 49ers favored. But when making your NFL picks, should you take the 49ers as road favorites or the Eagles as home underdogs? Let’s dive into the NFL Week 13 predictions for the late afternoon slate.

NFL Week 13 Predictions and Picks

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

  • Spread
    Buccaneers -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Panthers +166, Buccaneers -198
  • Total

Blewis: This is really gross, but I like the Panthers here. Carolina is 1-8-2 ATS this season; they have to start covering eventually, right?! All jokes aside, I like Carolina here for multiple reasons.

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Tampa Bay continues to be overvalued since they started the season 3-1. Since then, they have gone 1-6, with their only win against Will Levis at home. During this span, their defense has been one of the worst in the NFL as well, ranking 29th in EPA.

For the season, Young has the second-highest pure dropback rate, meaning he has thrown the fewest percentage of play-action throws/RPOs/screens — easy plays for quarterbacks. Now with Frank Reich and a few other offensive coaches gone, maybe they’ll find more ways to simplify the passing game for Young.

I got the Panthers at +5.5 before the line movement. I would still play them at +3.5 or higher.

Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Soppe: The Buccaneers are far from a perfect team, there’s no denying that. This pass defense leaves plenty to be desired, and Baker Mayfield has thrown a pick in seven of his past nine games.

Their flaws, however, are unlikely to be exposed in this spot. The Panthers average 5.5 yards per pass, not just the lowest rate in the league this season, but the lowest mark since the Blaine Gabbert-led Jacksonville Jaguars of 2011. As for Mayfield’s interception problem, I’m not worried. Through 12 weeks, only the Tennessee Titans average fewer picks per game than the Panthers.

Putting your hard-earned money on a 4-7 team to win by a margin isn’t comfortable, but their four victories have come by an average of 11.0 PPG. I have zero faith in the 29th-ranked scoring offense to come back from any sort of deficit, so as long as Mayfield can get the Bucs on the board early, I love the trajectory of this bet (taking them ATS is also a live option if you prefer).

Pick: Buccaneers 1H and moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: Last week, Adam Thielen had his worst game of the season, catching one of three targets for two yards. Before that, Thielen caught at least six passes in eight of his previous nine games.

I am buying into the fired-coach narrative a bit here. I think the Panthers come out and play inspired football, and look much more competent offensively. While they’d probably prefer their offense not run through a 33-year-old wide receiver, he’s still the best they’ve got.

The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense. They allow 14.0 receptions per game to wide receivers, the seventh-most in the league. They also allow the second-most yardage to wide receivers. Thielen should have no trouble clearing six receptions.

Pick: Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

  • Spread
    49ers -3
  • Moneyline
    49ers -148, Eagles +126
  • Total

Blewis: I’ve been giving out this pick almost every week now — take the 49ers’ team total over when their offense is completely healthy, as it’s undefeated for the season.

This is especially true in a spot where their offense will have a massive rest advantage. The 49ers are coming off a long week after playing on Thanksgiving; meanwhile, the Eagles just played in a long overtime game in which their defense played 95 snaps. Overall, this unit has played 47 more snaps than the 49ers defense over the last two weeks — that’s almost equal to an entire game.

The Eagles are also banged up on that side of the ball, with Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham both out with injuries they suffered last week. The Eagles have depth at defensive tackle, but they were already thin at linebacker, so Cunningham could really be missed here.

The only concern here would be how Brock Purdy handles this Eagles pass rush. The Eagles just faced the two best quarterbacks in a row at evading sacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. With just two sacks over their last two weeks, they could bounce back here, even with their rest disadvantage.

Pick: 49ers over 24.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Katz: Apparently, road Brock Purdy and home Brock Purdy are things. I’m just not sure I buy it. Purdy has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in five games this year. But it doesn’t get much easier than an Eagles defense that is the second-worst in the NFL against the pass.

The Eagles just gave up 34 points to the Buffalo Bills last week. Josh Allen threw two touchdowns against them in an epic shootout. I think we could see something similar this week.

Pick: Brock Purdy over 1.5 touchdown passes (-129 at Caesars)

Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds

  • Spread
    Rams -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Browns +168, Rams -200
  • Total

Soppe: What is the path to success for either of these offenses? We saw Kyren Williams return last week to give the Rams the ability to melt the clock, a style of play the Browns (third in rush rate over expectation this season) have been employing all year long.

Los Angeles had failed to clear 20 points in four straight games before last week’s easy matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, struggles I expect to continue this week against the second-best yards per defense in the league.

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The Browns have allowed 10 or fewer points four times this season, and their scoring upside without Deshaun Watson (25 total points over the past two weeks) is limited, to say the least.

I’m not sure there are six scoring drives in this entire game, and I’m certainly not forecasting all of those drives to finish in touchdowns. I like this pre-game under, and I’m sure we will be discussing a live under should one of these teams score early!

Pick: Under 40 (-110 at DraftKings)

Katz: The Puka Nacua dream rookie season has hit a bit of a wall. He’s gone over 43 yards in just one of his previous four games, and just two of his last six.

Cooper Kupp is not producing, either, but Kupp merely being in the lineup relegates Nacua to Matthew Stafford’s second target. That is not ideal in one of the most difficult matchups for wide receivers.

The Browns allow just 117 yards per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the league. Their 8.5 receptions per game allowed to wide receivers is the best mark in the league.

Pick: Puka Nacua under 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

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