We have a small slate for the late afternoon, with three games involving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers, the New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills, and the Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams.
We have you covered with more NFL Week 11 predictions for each of these contests, with picks against the spread, player props, and over/unders.
NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks: Late Afternoon
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
Buccaneers +450, 49ers -600
Blewis: The 49ers were back at full strength last week, and they quickly reminded us that before their three-game losing streak and injuries to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, they had a strong case for being the best team in the league.
I find this Buccaneers defense to be a bit overrated because their metrics are inflated by performances against underwhelming offenses in the Bears, Saints, Falcons, and Titans, who they held to an average of 12 PPG. In games against top-10 offenses, that number is more than double. When completely healthy, no team has held the 49ers to under 30 points this season.
Instead of taking the game over here, I’m going to isolate the 49ers’ team total.
Pick: 49ers over 26.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Soppe: The 49ers are 12-point favorites this week, and that inherently comes with some volume risk when it comes to evaluating the passing game.
That, along with a healthy group of pass catchers, is all I need to fade George Kittle. This season, in games in which Deebo Samuel has played, Kittle has seen 4.1 targets per game (down from 9.0 in the two games Samuel sat with the shoulder injury). For his career, the tight end averages 9.8 yards per target, putting us in a spot to do some simple multiplication:
- 4.1 targets x 9.8 yards per target = 40.2 yards
It’s never that easy, but in a game where we expect San Francisco to take their foot off the gas to keep their offense at full strength with a short work week ahead (at Seattle on Thursday night), this could easily be one of those dud games from Kittle.
Pick: George Kittle under 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
Jets +270, Bills -340
Blewis: As much as the Buffalo Bills’ defense has struggled in recent weeks, a matchup against Zach Wilson is almost as good as it gets, which is saying something with the number of backup quarterbacks being thrust into starting roles.
On the other side, the Bills are 1-2 in their last three games against the Jets dating back to last season, and Josh Allen’s struggles are a big reason why. Since 2022 vs. the Jets, Allen has averaged 196 passing yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt and five interceptions. Each of those games had a combined score of less than 40 points as well.
Unders are a combined 13-6 in Jets/Bills games this season, and that’s the direction I’m going in with this pick.
Pick: Under 40 (-110 at FanDuel)
Bearman: So people want to lay seven with a Buffalo Bills team that is second in the NFL with 18 giveaways, is averaging 20.5 points per game during a 2-4 run, and is facing a team that has one of the better defenses in the league?
No thanks. I’ll hold my nose, but I’ll take the Jets and seven points here and hope they don’t lose 13-3.
Pick: Jets +7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to overthinking things, so I’m going to pat myself on the back for keeping it simple this week.
The Bills have the fourth-highest opponent rush rate over expectation this season, and I think that’s a sticky trend. They allow the fourth-most yards per carry this season, and by running the ball, opponents shorten the game and thus magnify any Josh Allen mistake that should occur.
The ineptitude of the Jets offense is why this number is lower than may seem reasonable. Due to the downside of Zach Wilson and company, Hall has cleared this number just twice despite flirting with 5.0 yards per carry.
I understand the risk, but with the Bills seemingly unable to overcome their defensive injuries and New York’s wanting to bleed the clock in this matchup, Hall is a good bet to clear the 15 carries he has averaged over his past five games and cruise past this number.
Pick: Breece Hall over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
Seahawks -115, Rams -105
Blewis: The Los Angeles Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks by 27 points on the road in Week 1, and that was without Cooper Kupp. For this matchup, they will have Kupp and Matthew Stafford back after a one-game absence, and they’ll be facing a Seahawks defense that I think is overrated by their easy schedule.
After a three-game stretch against the Giants, an injured Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and the Cardinals in which they allowed just 10 PPG, the Browns, Ravens, and Commanders scored a combined 83 points against Seattle. For the season, they’re just 20th in DVOA and 25th in yards per game.
This Rams defense is even worse than Seattle’s, but I have an easier time trusting Stafford at home than Geno Smith on the road, who has been quite erratic this season.
Pick: Rams +1 (-110 at FanDuel)
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