After an up-and-down 2024 season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, veteran quarterback Russell Wilson is expected to receive interest from a number of QB-needy teams this offseason.
Will he return to Pittsburgh or take his talents elsewhere, and how much money will get paid annually? Let’s examine what kind of contract the 36-year-old could sign once he hits the open market.
How Much Will Russell Wilson Get Paid This Offseason?
- Projected Contract: $30-35 million per year
- Projected Contract Length: 2-3 years
Given that Geno Smith essentially replaced Wilson in Seattle, it seems fitting that Wilson’s next contract should be similar to Smith’s.
Based on the salary cap growth since Smith signed that deal, there will likely be a slight inflation in value, but for all intents and purposes, it should be a very similar deal.
Wilson finished as the 17th-ranked QB in our metrics — two spots below Smith. Of course, Wilson also finished ranked above players getting paid significantly more than Smith (including Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins) and one spot below Kyler Murray ($46.1 million per year).
Last season, Wilson threw for 2,482 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 63.7% completion percentage across his 11 starts. Wilson was fine after taking over as the starter, but he didn’t elevate Pittsburgh over what Justin Fields provided or prove to be any “safer.”
He finished the year with a -0.00 EPA/DB (23rd) and ranked outside the top 20 both from a clean pocket (0.23 EPA/DB) and when pressured (-0.38 EPA/DB). Wilson struggled in the fourth quarter of close games (28th) and had a 38.8% conversion rate on third down (17th).
Wilson is the No. 81-ranked player in PFSN’s Top 100 Free Agent Rankings.
Spotrac projects Wilson’s deal to be in the $38.5 million per year region across two seasons, using Smith, Rodgers, Stafford, and Cousins as comparables. This is where things get tricky because Wilson is more of a proven asset than Smith but is a lesser player when signing this deal than Cousins, Rodgers, and Stafford were.
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Smith’s deal had a base of $25 million a year and a chance to earn escalators. Wilson’s deal should start at between $30 and $35 million per year, with incentives and escalators similar to Smith’s. Any team looking to sign Wilson should give him the opportunity to earn $40-45 million a year with those incentives and escalators.
The guarantees in Wilson’s contract will be interesting after a mixed few seasons in Denver and Pittsburgh.
He is not coming off a peak season like Baker Mayfield was when he inked a deal worth $33.3 million per year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a successful 2023, but he has a better pedigree. Therefore, something along the lines of $40-50 million in guarantees makes sense on a two- or three-year deal.