The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Russell Wilson, QB
Russell Wilson has been worthy of your trust in two of his three starts, and he has elevated this offense in such a way that I’m comfortable assuming this team opens things up in an effort to exploit the Baltimore Ravens’ pass-funnel defense.
In every one of his starts this season, the veteran QB has accounted for at least three scores or completed 70% of his passes — why can’t he do both against the worst EPA pass defense in the league?
Three teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their past four games: the Bills, Eagles, and Steelers. I’m not putting this offense on that level yet, but part of being a successful fantasy manager is adjusting expectations with time. This isn’t the Steelers offense from September. Heck, this isn’t the team from early October. This is a team that is embracing its strengths and looking to make splash plays through the air.
Wilson will be a chalky DFS play, and I don’t think that’s wrong.
Jaylen Warren, RB
Jaylen Warren’s role has seen him in that 40-50% snap range in three straight games, but Najee Harris’ ankle injury could open us up to extended usage in a suddenly strong Steelers offense in the short term.
In his role as it is, Warren has multiple catches in four straight games; when he was pushed into an increased workload against the Commanders, I thought he handled himself well (six of his 14 carries picked up at least five yards while he failed to gain yardage just once).
This has been far from a banner season for the third-year back (21.7% production below expectations), but the upward trajectory of this offense has me encouraged and penciling Warren in as a low-end RB2 should Harris sit.
This is as tough a spot as it gets in terms of running the ball (BAL: in the top three in success rate, rushing yards, yards per carry, and EPA against running backs), but a handful of targets could be enough to position him as a fantasy starter.
Watch the news on Harris — if he is trending toward being active despite limitations in practice, I’ll be out on both backs, but should his health take a drastic swing in one direction or the other, I’ll be reacting.
Najee Harris, RB
An ankle injury is nagging at Najee Harris early this week — that is a situation that requires our attention. Fantasy managers have been enjoying a strong season from Pittsburgh’s RB1, one that has featured more consistency than we’ve seen in years past.
After punching in a touchdown against the Commanders last week, he now has seven straight games with a score or multiple receptions, a profile that is going to bear fantasy fruit more often than not. We saw Harris show out against these Ravens in Week 18 last season (133 yards and a touchdown), but he’s running into the lone strength of this Baltimore defense. That brings in week-ruining potential.
In Washington last weekend, Harris produced 26.7% below fantasy expectations, his worst showing since September, and that came in a game in which he scored (2.5 yards per carry and zero targets).
I have Harris ranked as a low-end RB2 right now, and that’s under the assumption that this ankle injury isn’t overly prohibitive when it comes to his practice status late this week. If that’s not the case, he’ll fall down to a middling Flex rank. For those looking to set lineups ahead of time, I’d rather take my chances on a Cedric Tillman or Jauan Jennings type to round out my starting lineup over Harris right now.
George Pickens, WR
A receiver has cleared 21 PPR fantasy points seven times against the Ravens this season, and they check in on average just under 6’2” (all of them being at least 6′). Enter the 6’3” George Pickens and his upward-trending stock since Russell Wilson took over this offense.
Pickens’ production vs. expectations, 2024:
Weeks 1-6: +9%
Weeks 7-10: +34.3%
Pickens has seen five end-zone targets in those three games, the most recent of which was a highlight-reel 16-yard score last week. Pittsburgh is dialing back his slot usage and simply asking him to flip the field and/or change the score with his high-end athleticism.
I think the acquisition of Mike Williams is further proof of their intentions when it comes to Pickens — they are betting on Wilson to keep defenses honest with a big threat on the other side. Whatever fraction of a target that comes off of Pickens’ projection moving forward due to Williams’ presence is, in my opinion, more than paid back by an increase in the quality of the targets that result from safeties having to respect the other side of the field.
Pickens is locked into my top 10 this week and will not be a chalky piece in the DFS streets that I’m fading.
Mike Williams, WR
Mike Williams’ addition to this team made all the sense in the world. Of course, that’s easy to say after he posts a game where his PPR fantasy point total (10.2) nearly matches his snap rate (12%), but the logic tracks for a deep threat in a Russell Wilson-led offense void of a WR2.
Williams needs to be rostered, and if you’re stuck this week in a position where you are swinging for the fences, why not go in this direction? The Ravens are the fourth-worst defense against deep passes by EPA, and the fantasy numbers reflect as much. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
- KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
- Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
- Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
- Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
- Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
- Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
- Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5
I’m not ranking Williams as a top-30 receiver until we see his role crystalize, but he’s on the shortlist of my favorites to go on a run like what we saw from Alec Pierce in September.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
Russell Wilson has brought a level of professionalism to this offense, and it’s paying dividends for plenty. Pat Freiermuth scored in the second quarter last week on a perfectly timed pick play and that’s great, but the lack of a floor is enough to keep him outside of my top 12 this week, even in a seemingly ideal matchup.
Freiermuth has not earned a single end-zone target this season and has seen three or fewer looks in five straight. Pittsburgh’s chain-moving threat has the potential to fall forward into a touchdown any week, even more so with Wilson under center, but he’s on the list a mile long of TD-dependent TEs.
We are talking about more of a DFS play than a season-long option in my eyes.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Only twice in the 2000s has a team made the Super Bowl after starting the season 0-2 (the 2007 Giants and 2001 Patriots), something that seems more possible with each passing week for these Ravens.
QB: Has Lamar Jackson ended the MVP race before it started? He threw 457 passes last season – if we extend his pace from his past four games across 457 attempts:
- 331 completions
- 4,652 passing yards
- 57 passing touchdowns
Offense: Baltimore averages 2.94 points per drive, just ahead of Jackson’s first MVP season and 23.5% better than a year ago.
Defense: Only twice in the 2000s have the Ravens allowed a third-down conversion rate of 40%—through 10 weeks, their rate this season sits at 46.7%.
Fantasy: When this game starts, we will be 322 days removed from the last game in which Derrick Henry played and failed to reach the end zone.
Betting: The Ravens have covered their past eight road games played on extended rest (1-0 this season with a 10-point win over the Buccaneers as a four-point favorite).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are 7-1 against the Ravens from 2020. However, every game in that stretch has been decided by one score.
QB: Russell Wilson is averaging 10.9 yards per pass when blitzed this season (339 yards and three scores on 31 such attempts).
Offense: Pittsburgh’s first-down offense has the lowest yards per play (4.1, league average: 5.5).
Defense: The Steelers allow just 29.9% of opponent drives to result in points, which is the third-best rate in the NFL (only the Chargers and Vikings have been better).
Fantasy: That’s seven straight games with multiple receptions or a touchdown rush for Najee Harris.
Betting: The Steelers have covered four straight home divisional games (average cover margin: +13.9 PPG).