The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. Both teams are looking to debut their newly acquired quarterbacks and assess their respective futures.
For all information about NFL betting and fantasy football, this is a one-stop shop for the Steelers vs. Falcons season-opening matchup.
Steelers at Falcons Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Steelers +145, Falcons -175
- Total: 42
This is a pretty simple bet for me for a couple of reasons.
One, we’re fading the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense, which looked dreadful during the preseason and has a very dire skill-position group to go along with a mediocre (at best) quarterback room.
Steelers QB Russell Wilson has been limited in practice due to calf tightness, but I’m interested in this under regardless of who is under center for Pittsburgh. While the Atlanta Falcons have a weak pass rush, their defense is much improved with the additions of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons.
On the other side, I don’t trust Kirk Cousins in his first game back from tearing his Achilles against this Steelers defense. Not only will Cousins be rusty and getting acclimated to a new team, but he’ll be going against the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. Considering his lack of mobility coming off the injury, that’s a scary thought.
Best of all, this total is above a key number of 41.5. This under is my favorite bet of the week.
Prediction: Falcons 17, Steelers 13
Pick: Under 42
Steelers at Falcons Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: Fox
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FOX NOW
- Radio Stations: WDVE 102.5 FM, 92.9 The Game
- Starting QBs: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins
After a fierce attempt to take the starting job in the preseason, fellow newcomer Justin Fields fell just short of the starting spot, getting edged out by Russell Wilson. However, in his announcement, head coach Mike Tomlin was vocal about having packages to get the former Chicago Bears QB on the field. Tomlin told Rich Eisen, “My friend Raheem Morris better be ready for a Justin Fields package … there’s too much talent to be sitting around watching.”
While two-QB systems can get a bit complex, Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seem keen on utilizing Fields’ ability as a rusher while letting Wilson be the primary passer.
As for Atlanta, they, too, get a massive change under center after a horrible offensive output in 2023. QB Desmond Ridder got traded to the Cardinals (and cut after a rough preseason), and veteran bag chaser Kirk Cousins was brought in on a four-year, $180 million contract to become the new signal-caller.
The Falcons’ offense is about to undergo a radical transformation. After having a quarterback they were hesitant to let pass the ball, Cousins will likely get the opposite treatment. While still recovering from an Achilles injury, Cousins played some of the best football of his career before the injury last season.
Steelers at Falcons Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: Would you believe me if I told you that, of all of the featured games this week, this is the one that features the two best quarterbacks who paid off best, on a per-pass attempt basis, against pressure last year?
It’s true. Both are obviously on different teams now, but the point remains that these two wily veterans can still find holes in defenses.
Wilson was conservative in these spots (13.1% fewer attempts downfield than league average when pressured), but that has the potential to keep him as a viable QB2/Superflex option because it elevates his floor.
There’s some upside layered into his profile given the soft deep touch he has showcased throughout his career and the physical gifts of George Pickens. I’m not ranking Wilson as a top-15 signal-caller this week, but if you squint hard enough, a vintage performance is within the range of realistic outcomes.
Kirk Cousins: In his Atlanta debut, I have Cousins pegged as QB16, though he is smack dab in the middle of a tier that extends up to QB11, making him a viable DFS option if ownership projections have him as a contrarian play.
His aDOT has dipped in consecutive seasons. While a new team could reverse that trend, I’m not sold that it will be necessary for him to produce viable numbers this week against a Steelers defense that allowed the seventh-most yards per reception after the catch last season.
2023 Pass Rate Over Expectation:
- Vikings: 6th
- Falcons: 32nd
It’s safe to project the 2024 Falcons to rank somewhere in the middle third of the league with his weekly upside relying on this team trending closer to last season’s Vikings. It wouldn’t shock me if this unit gets to the top 10 in pass rate, but it’ll require time and comfort.
Pittsburgh ranked 10th in blitz rate and opponent passer rating a season ago. It is a viable defense that figures to give Cousins problems (since 2022: second in completion percentage when not blitzed, 22nd when blitzed) out of the gate.
Anything can happen, but I expect to be relatively off of Cousins for the first month of the season before exploring DFS options in October, when the Falcons face the Bucs (twice), Panthers, and Seahawks.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring during the preseason, and while his status is TBD (it seems to be trending in the right direction, but has yet to be confirmed), I’m not playing Harris in Week 1 if I can avoid it.
The story behind Harris has been pretty simple through three seasons – limited efficiency and a reliance on volume and touchdowns. The volume could remain, especially should Warren be a surprise inactive, but this profiles as an empty-calorie situation.
Last season, the Falcons (first in defensive rush EPA on first down) owned the fourth-best red-zone defense and coughed up just five scores on 390 running back carries; not only the lowest rate in the NFL but the lowest by an NFC team over the past decade.
A Harris manager is swimming upstream if these rates prove stable. He averaged just 6.7 PPR points per game a season ago when held out of the end zone.
Toss in the fact that this Atlanta offense should stay on the field more than it did in 2023 (25th in time of possession) now that Cousins is under center, and we could be looking at a low drive count for the Steelers.
If you have the luxury, I’d rather count on players like David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert – running backs on potent offenses with a well-defined red-zone role.
Jaylen Warren: The hamstring injury during the second week of the preseason wasn’t as serious as we had feared, and Warren seems to be in a good health spot entering this game.
On the bright side, we saw his snap share rise from 31.7% in 2022 to 48.5% last season, and it’s reasonable to think that Warren eventually leads this backfield in opportunities.
Key word: Eventually.
The injury set that timeline back a bit, and considering he has never played the majority of snaps in a September game (only one career September game with even 8.5 PPR points), Warren is not of interest to me this week. For reference, 10 PPR points were needed to be on the Flex radar last season.
I wouldn’t punt on Warren if this week is discouraging. At the very least, if he can separate himself in this passing game, he could see his highest usage games come late in the season when the Steelers close the fantasy season with games against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs – spots where the game script is likely to favor his skill set.
Bijan Robinson: The only decision to be made with Robinson is if I rank him as the top overall running back on the slate this week – and I did! The Steelers gave up at least 22 PPR points to a running back on five different occasions last season, and of the seven running backs that saw elite usage against them (20+ touches), the majority exceeded fantasy expectations by over 12%.
I’ll be watching this game to confirm that Robinson’s usage matches with the preseason suggestions. If it is, he’s a threat to lead skill position players in scoring this season.
Buckle up!
Tyler Allgeier: I have some shares of Allgeier with the thought that he could potentially carve out a nice niche by the time bye weeks come about, but banking on standalone value out of the gate is far too optimistic for me.
Just once during the second half of last season did Allgeier reach a 36% snap share. And with talks of Robinson being used in a Christian McCaffrey-like manner, it’s tough to project much change on that front.
The contingent value keeps Allgeier on your roster, but there’s no reason to get cute to open the season against 2023’s ninth-best defense in terms of rushing success rate.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens: This game could very well be a perfect snapshot of what 2024 as a whole looks like.
Pickens is going to earn targets at bulk in an offense that is void of pass-catching options, and he’s paid off elite usage up to this point in his career.
Career when seeing 8+ targets:
- 19.3 PPR PPG
- 32.3% fantasy production over expectation
There will certainly be some peaks and valleys this year – and in this game. The Falcons were a top-10 defense in terms of deep pass yards per attempt and completion percentage, but well below average on those throws in passer rating and TD rate.
In short, Atlanta defends the deep ball well, but when they get gashed, it’s in a big way.
Pickens is a low-end WR2 for me this week with the thought being that, with enough bites at the apple, he makes at least one splash play to justify being in starting lineups.
I expect Pittsburgh’s WR1 to be a headache this season, and that is why I don’t have a ton of shares. Still, I do think he can give managers a strong week to open the season.
Drake London: This new-look offense figures to feature London in a big way, though it might take some time for him to move into the WR1 conversation. The Steelers were the fifth-best red-zone defense in 2023, and if Robinson is truly the focal point of the offense, that puts London’s scoring equity in question to a degree.
That’s about it when it comes to my concerns. London is a top-20 option for me this week with the thought being that if he can sustain his volume (7+ targets in 10 games last season), the increased quality of those looks will carry him to strong numbers.
I want to see a nice connection with Cousins before going all-in on London, but I anticipate this duo developing chemistry in short order. That’ll result in London pushing into my top 15 at the position before long.
Darnell Mooney: I’m open to the idea of Mooney providing bye week value at some point this season, but with him catching just 71 passes over the past two years (across 27 games), and with three high-usage players ahead of him in Atlanta’s offense, I’m very much going to need to see it before betting on it.
I wouldn’t worry about rostering him now. I would, however, keep an eye on his usage given how positive the Falcons’ schedule is to end the fantasy season:
- Week 13 vs. Chargers
- Week 14 at Vikings
- Week 15 at Raiders
- Week 16 vs. Giants
- Week 17 at Commanders
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: I’m cautiously optimistic about Freiermuth. With just four touchdown catches over the past two seasons, the former Nittany Lion hasn’t cashed in on the promise he showed as a rookie when he caught seven scores. But with Diontae Johnson now a Panther, there are plenty of targets available for a career year to occur.
When running 30+ routes, Freiermuth has averaged 11 PPR points per game. Freiermuth reached double figures in 10 of those 12 games with 30+ routes run. In games with fewer than 30 routes run, he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game.
I can’t say with certainty that Freiermuth will be unleashed in that manner this season, but it’s within the range of outcomes, and that is why he’s in my top 15.
There is only so much upward mobility at tight end due to the increase in depth, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Freiermuth proves to be a very viable option for those who punted on the position.
Kyle Pitts: Is this the year? We have four months to figure that out, but the Steelers holding opponents to the second-lowest red-zone completion percentage certainly isn’t ideal.
That said, even in a vanilla offense, we’ve seen Pitts’ athletic profile be used downfield in a significant way, and that is how you beat Pittsburgh, which allowed the seventh-highest deep completion percentage in 2023.
Due to the price you paid on draft day, you’re not afforded the time to wait and see like someone considering Freiermuth.
Pitts is my TE9 this week, and that makes him a starter in most formats. I could see him climbing as high as TE7 as soon as next week (MNF at Philadelphia) if he checks the usage boxes I need to see in Cousins’ debut.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Steelers at Falcons Key Stats To Know
Steelers
Team: The Steelers committed 22 fewer penalties than their opponents last season, the third-best differential in the league.
QB: Russell Wilson held onto the ball longer-than-NFL-average 46.5% of the time last season, a rate only topped by Justin Fields (54.3%). Desmond Ridder ranked 11th in percentage of quick-release throws for Arthur Smith last season.
Offense: The Steelers ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation in 2023 while the Falcons ranked 32nd – Arthur Smith has taken his playbook from Atlanta to Pittsburgh.
Defense: The Steelers ranked 10th in blitz rate and opponent passer rating a season ago. They are a viable defense that figures to give Cousins problems. Since 2022, Cousins is second in completion percentage when not blitzed and 22nd when blitzed.
Fantasy: George Pickens for his career when seeing 8+ targets: 19.3 PPR PPG and 32.3% fantasy production over expectation.
Betting: Of the teams playing on the road this Sunday, the Steelers own the highest cover rate when away from home over the past two seasons (64.7%).
Falcons
Team: The Falcons have won exactly seven games in five of the past six seasons. Only two other teams have even three seven-win seasons over that stretch and 15 teams don’t have a single one.
QB: Kirk Cousins ranked behind only Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud in terms of Passer Rating when trailing last season (109.8).
Offense: The Falcons were the worst team at converting goal-to-go drives into TDs last season (48.1%, league average: 71.5%).
Defense: Last season, the Falcons (first in defensive rush EPA on first down) owned the fourth-best red zone defense and coughed up just five scores on 390 running back carries, not only the lowest rate in the NFL but the lowest by an NFC team over the past decade
Fantasy: Kyle Pitts scored 176.6 PPR points as a rookie and has totaled 212.9 in the two seasons since.
Betting: Kirk Cousins is 1-7 against the spread in his past eight indoor games. His past four indoor games have all come in under the total.