New England Patriots running back Pierre Strong Jr. entered this year competing for the RB2 role behind clear starter Rhamondre Stevenson. With the Patriots signing Ezekiel Elliott, Strong will now be the RB3 — at best. What is Strong’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Pierre Strong Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook
The mere possibility of Strong having fantasy value in 2023 was tenuous, at best, before the Zeke signing. Stevenson is locked in as the starter. Strong was never a threat to his role as the feature back. The hope with Strong was that he could emerge as the clear backup and primary passing-down back.
In 2020, Strong commanded an 11% target share at South Dakota State. That establishes his ability as a receiving back.
The Patriots, and Stevenson himself, have made it no secret that they don’t want to give him 350 touches. Stevenson admitted he wore down toward the end of last season. While Stevenson is a quality pass catcher himself, if Strong was the next man up, the passing game makes sense as the spot to take some of the load off of him.
All of that is moot at this point. Although Elliott only got a one-year deal, he’s going to be the team’s RB2. Look for Zeke to spell Stevenson in short-yardage spots and take most of the goal-line work.
Strong is now competing with Kevin Harris and possibly, if he can ever stay healthy, Ty Montgomery for the RB3 role. Montgomery is 30 years old and hasn’t mattered since 2017, though. That creates an interesting dichotomy between Strong and Harris because they are completely different players.
The most likely beneficiary of a Stevenson injury would be Elliott, who would see increased early-down work. If Elliott were to get hurt, it would probably be Harris who steps into that role.
Strong is smaller but much faster. He ran a 4.37 40-time and has a 95th percentile speed score. The man can fly. He won’t be used for dives between the tackles. There’s not much of a path for Strong.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Strong at His ADP?
Strong had a lot of obstacles to overcome to even secure the Patriots’ RB2 role. He was unable to clear them all. Even if he settles in as the RB3, he would need two injuries to even potentially matter as part of a likely timeshare with Harris.
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There are plenty of other running backs that need fewer things to happen for them to fall into fantasy value.
Strong’s ADP sits at RB74 at the time of writing. I imagine it is much lower by the time you read this. I have him ranked at RB85. I don’t intend to draft any running backs outside of the top 60. And neither should you.
