With 25 wins and over 900 points scored in the past two seasons, regular season and fantasy football success hasn’t been an issue in the City of Brotherly Love.
In the Philadelphia Eagles fantasy preview, we assume that strong statistics await us in 2024, though how they could be distributed is a bit different as a result of the team bringing in Saquon Barkley this offseason.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett, Tanner McKee
RB
Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley
WR1
A.J. Brown, Johnny Wilson, Joseph Ngata
WR2
DeVonta Smith, DeVante Parker, Austin Watkins Jr.
WR3
Parris Campbell, Ainias Smith, Britain Covey
TE
Dallas Goedert, Grant Calcaterra, Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.
Jalen Hurts’ Fantasy Outlook
Jalen Hurts’ status as an elite fantasy quarterback is well established at this point — 38 rushing touchdowns over a three-year run at the QB position will do that.
I do share some of your concerns that Saquon Barkley‘s addition, along with Jason Kelce’s retirement, could eat into Hurts’ production on the ground. But I’d argue that with a bell-cow back at his disposal, the odds of Hurts being at his best when it matters most for you increases (three of his four worst performances last season came after the Week 10 bye).
Hurts remains a Tier 1 quarterback for me, if for no other reason than he added talent while the Buffalo Bills (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) and Kansas City Chiefs (TBD on the Rashee Rice situation) are experiencing some changes in their pass game.
In drafting Hurts, you’re looking at one of the highest floors at any position in our game. That’s not a bad way to spend an early-round pick!
Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Outlook
Are we going to party like it’s 2018? OK, so a back with over 1,500 NFL touches on his résumé isn’t likely to show the same juice he did as a rookie (reminder: 2,028 yards, 91 catches, and 15 touchdowns), but putting an elite talent like this on the back end of his physical prime in a loaded offense is good for business.
You’re getting too cute if you’re not at least considering Barkley a first-round talent this season after he produced over 1,300 yards and scored 10 times in 14 games for a Giants team that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in essentially any offensive metric you want to look at.
A #Giants highlight!
Saquon Barkley gives New York a spark 💣pic.twitter.com/Tus4XkC0tM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 22, 2023
Barkley profiles as a nice scheme fit in Philadelphia and has a nose for the end zone that should help alleviate some of the pressures on Hurts. The scoring upside alone keeps Barkley in the first two rounds of drafts, and if he can give us his career norm in terms of efficiency (4.3 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per catch), we could easily be looking at a top-five running back in 2024.
Due to the young position talent across the league, you’re not going to pony up a pick in the first half of Round 1 for Barkley, and maybe not a first-rounder at all (his early ADP checked in at 14th overall).
MORE: Consensus Rookie Rankings
That trend has me wanting to pick in the second half of drafts this year, securing a target monster of a receiver (think Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams) along with Barkley as I build a super team loaded with volume/potential.
Wide receivers appear destined to be the vast majority of the first 10 picks, and I believe that makes an RB-WR build very advantageous for those drafting in the back end of Round 1, leaving Barkley as the perfect option in which to build.
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Outlook
It was a bumpy road to the finish line last season for A.J. Brown managers. But at the end of the day, he played every game and racked up over 1,400 receiving yards, something he has done in both seasons since he joined the Eagles.
A.J. Brown came with BAD INTENTIONS today 😮💨#FlyEaglesFly
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2023
The late-season swoon was a reminder of the downside that presents itself in an offense centered around a quarterback who can be sporadic at times as a passer. Don’t let that blind you to just how special Brown’s ceiling is.
As he enters his age-27 season, it’s possible that we’ve yet to see the best that Brown has to offer. This offense is going to be as potent as ever with Barkley — meaning Brown could improve upon the 15.2 yards per catch and the one touchdown every 7.6 quarters numbers that he’s produced as an Eagle.
The consistency concerns keep Brown out of my top tier of receivers, but once the top five WRs are off the board, he makes as much sense to target as anyone in the second half of the first round.
DeVonta Smith’s Fantasy Outlook
On the bright side, DeVonta Smith has missed just one game in his NFL career and is a burner who has averaged over five catches per game in both seasons since Brown was inserted as the alpha.
The downside, if we’re going to nitpick, is that Smith has yet to give us the type of consistency that we look for from a weekly fantasy starter and hasn’t grown in terms of target earning rates.
Smith had seven games a season ago with a 30+ yard catch — upside that I expect to still very much be in his profile as he enters his age-25 season. The concern is the dip in opportunities (8.0 per game in 2022 down to 7.0 in 2023) and if that number is at further risk with Barkley in the mix and, likely, a healthier version of Dallas Goedert.
DeVonta Smith had 18 receptions for 20+ yards in the 2022 season — tied for 8th-most among NFL WRs (via @IE_NFL)pic.twitter.com/ExTstGgpx1
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 15, 2023
A repeat of the past two seasons is roughly what I have projected for Smith (85-90 catches for 1,150 yards, and seven touchdowns). But that stat line could be less productive in practice than it looks on paper if we get the swings that we did in 2023 (seven games with no more than 50 yards and eight games with no more than five targets).
The depth of the position as a whole drags down Smith’s ranking. I could see him being a decent value in the fourth round at his low-end WR2 price tag, but I think that’s the responsible spot to put him in the rankings.
Opportunity cost is my concern — would you rather draft him there or wait a few rounds for a Jayden Reed/Terry McLaurin type (based on early ADPs)?
Dallas Goedert’s Fantasy Outlook
Goedert’s experience and savviness are valuable to the Eagles as a team, but his best fantasy days are in the rearview. And given the influx of talent at the TE position over the past few seasons, this veteran is no longer a lock to be considered a weekly starter in 2024.
Forget the point that he hasn’t played a complete season since his rookie campaign in 2018, we’re talking about a tight end in Goedert who has never cleared five touchdown receptions and is coming off of a year in which he averaged a career-low 10.0 yards per catch.
Goedert’s ability to earn nearly six targets per game last season is still encouraging and keeps him viable in PPR leagues, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to rank him as a top-12 TE option.
- Would you rather him over the pedigree of Brock Bowers? Not me.
- Would you rather him over Jake Ferguson’s youth and greater role? Not me.
- Would you rather him over Dalton Schultz’s spot in a pass-heavy offense? Maybe?
For me, that lands Goedert right on the starter fringe. The floor can be reasonably comforting, and if he falls into the ninth round, I don’t mind pulling the trigger, understanding that you’ve built a solid foundation before that. I’m simply cautioning against seeing a name that we locked into starting lineups for years and assuming that’s the case for 2024.
Eagles’ Fantasy Sleeper: DeVante Parker
Show of hands if you’ve fallen for the “this is the DeVante Parker year” thing at any point over the past four seasons after he piled up 1,202 yards and scored nine times for the Miami Dolphins in 2019.
This is the internet, so I can’t see who is raising their hands, but I know I am, and I know I’m not alone.
On the bright side, Parker costs you absolutely nothing this season and is at least a part of an elite offense after spending two years in New England.
Parker’s spot on this depth chart may not look appealing, but consider the options ahead of him. Brown and Smith are obviously great, but Goedert is a tight end flirting with 30 years of age who has missed multiple games in each of the past four seasons (eight DNPs over the past two years).
By no means am I suggesting that Parker is likely to even see the field, let alone thrive, but he’s not as buried as you might think. And we know this offense is going to provide scoring opportunities.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Parker averages north of 14 yards per catch for his career and is just one season removed from posting five double-digit PPR performances in a Patriots offense that … well, struggled.
If you’re in a deeper format where your final few bench spots are lottery tickets with little to no expectations, you could do worse than Parker. If your league has a tighter bench, you won’t need to draft him, but I’d earmark Parker at the first sign of any health concerns for Brown or Smith.