PFN Simulations Predict AFC South Winner: Will Texans Defend Their Division Title?

With OTAs in action, PFN's Playoff Predictor has tried to figure out who will win the AFC South. Who came out on top?

The AFC South has been thought of as a weak division in recent years, but that isn’t the case now.

Featuring a bunch of young teams with high upside, the AFC South could be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL this season.

Whether it be the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, or Tennessee Titans, each team brings something to the mix that will make every game a battle.

With OTAs having just gotten underway, Pro Football Network’s NFL Playoff Predictor tool has simulated what could happen and who could come out on top in the AFC South in 2024.

Texans Dominate for AFC South Title, But Challengers Arise

After winning the division in 2023, our simulations have the Texans holding the best odds to win the division once again. They are followed by the Colts and Jaguars, who could both contend for the division title, too.

The Texans return a strong offense with Bobby Slowik running the show. C.J. Stroud is entering his second season with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, while the team also added Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Danielle Hunter, and much more in free agency.

The Colts added some new players in the draft, but they are banking on staying healthy. They return Anthony Richardson, who suffered a season-ending injury early in 2023. They also return almost the rest of their team from a year ago. If they stay healthy, the Colts could pose a big threat in the AFC South.

The Jaguars could also win the division after winning it in 2022. In 2023, the Jaguars started 8-3 before suffering a major collapse and missing the playoffs. A big reason why was the health, or lack thereof, of Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and some others. Now healthy, mixed with some new additions, the Jaguars could pose a threat once again.

A Rising Titans Squad?

While the Titans didn’t win the division in any simulations, they should be much improved in 2024.

In addition to returning second-year quarterback Will Levis, they added Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed, and many more. Additionally, they had what could be a strong draft class.

The new coaching staff will still face an uphill battle, but the Titans could pose a threat or trap game for any team they face.

Potential NFL Playoff Matchups

The Texans’ most frequent playoff opponent in PFN’s simulations is the Baltimore Ravens, who sent them home in the 2023 postseason. Houston was also pinned against the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals, on top of the Colts, in our simulations.

The Colts’ most frequent opponent was the New York Jets. In addition to the Jets, they drew matchups with the Bills, Texans, Ravens, and Chiefs.

For the Jaguars, their most common opponent was the Bills. They also got paired with the Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jets, and Bengals.

Finally, in the Titans’ single playoff appearance, they faced the Bengals.

What Team Will Get the No. 1 Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?

While the Texans and Jaguars never got the first overall pick in PFN’s simulations, they also never got a pick in the top five. The Colts, on the other hand, got the first and fourth picks 6% of the time each.

Now, the Titans got the first pick 12% of the time. They also got the second pick 24% of the time, the third pick 12% of the time, and the fourth and fifth picks each at a 6% clip.

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