The Big Game
Be a better bettor! Enter your email address and get access to the Big Game Betting Guide, which features a detailed analysis of the last 19 Super Bowls. Enjoy actionable information on which title contenders hold under-the-radar advantages before and during the NFL title game.
Whether you’re betting on moneylines, player props, or anything in between for the biggest football matchup of the year, our data and conclusions will help you think smarter about Super Bowl LVII. Because if these trends hold, you’ll know more than most of the betting market.
The Big Game Betting Guide
Be a better bettor! Enter your email address and get access to the Big Game Betting Guide, which features a detailed analysis of the last 19 Super Bowls. Enjoy actionable information on which title contenders hold under-the-radar advantages before and during the NFL title game.
Whether you’re betting on moneylines, player props, or anything in between for the biggest football matchup of the year, our data and conclusions will help you think smarter about Super Bowl LVII. Because if these trends hold, you’ll know more than most of the betting market.
What's Inside?
Regular-Season Wins
Among Super Bowl contenders, how much do regular-season wins correlate with winning the title – or even covering the spread? Most people remember the undefeated Patriots falling to the Wild Card Giants in Super Bowl XLII. New England was a 12-point favorite. Surely, the unexpected happens. But are these anomalies? Or are they somehow actionable?
Battle-Tested Teams: Narrow Wins and Losses
Among Super Bowl opponents, are more battle-tested teams – squads that compete in and/or win more games decided by a touchdown or less – more likely to win the big game? We examined regular-season margins of victory and defeat to determine whether there are trends bettors might apply in their decision-making process.
Penalties
A Super Bowl contender that led the league in regular-season penalties. A more disciplined opponent. Who’s more likely to win, and how might in-game penalties shake things up? Because as we know, penalties in isolation aren’t necessarily destructive. Much depends on the timing and severity. By understanding their impact on a micro level, we can make sense of our findings on a macro level.
Rush and Pass Attempts: Super Bowl vs. Regular Season
Prop bets and DFS competitions might be largely won or lost before the coin flip . . . if only we knew which team would win. Ah, but we can play the probabilities. Because there are some fascinating game-script trends to help us determine the risks and benefits of betting big on a bell cow, fading a top-10 QB, or even going all in on a No. 2 wideout.
Quarter-by-Quarter Scoring
When are Super Bowl teams most likely to score during the regular season, and during the big game? And how might this inform our approach to prop betting? Because if we have evidence that certain quarters yield more scoring action than others, we can reverse engineer likely game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes.
High Point Scorers
10 of the top 11 scoring teams this season reached the playoffs. Last year, it was 11 of the top 13. The year before that, all of the top nine. The fact is, Super Bowls often feature at least one offensive juggernaut. How frequently do they win and/or cover the spread?
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