Patriots vs. Jets Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: Could Bill Belichick Really Start a Season 0-3?

Can the Patriots get a much-needed win over a heated AFC East rival? Let's look at the odds and our prediction for this Patriots vs. Jets matchup.

The last time the New York Jets were able to defeat the New England Patriots was three U.S. Presidents ago. But if the streak ends Sunday, it will mean Bill Belichick’s first 0-3 start since the 2000 NFL season. Let’s look at the odds for Sunday’s matchup.

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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Spread: Patriots -2.5
  • Moneyline: Patriots (-148); Jets (+124)
  • Over/Under: 36
  • Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: MetLife Stadium
  • Channel: CBS

Game Prediction

There hasn’t been a lot to like about the Patriots’ 0-2 start. The running game is averaging 3.5 yards a carry, and quarterback Mac Jones has been sacked six times already, including four times last week against the Miami Dolphins. They have also committed four turnovers already this season.

The good news for New England is that it probably won’t need a lot of offensive production to pull out a win in this matchup. The Jets’ offense has been abysmal so far this season, with just two offensive touchdowns in two games. New York is near the bottom in total offense (252.0 YPG, 29th), has five turnovers (T-3rd-most in NFL), and is a horrible 6 of 23 on third downs (26.1%, 31st).

Zach Wilson has done a good job of reminding everyone why the Jets went out and acquired Aaron Rodgers in the first place. In last week’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Wilson completed only 44% of his pass attempts (12 of 27), was sacked three times, and finished with a passer rating of 38.1, the second worst of his young NFL career.

(By the way, the career low for passer rating in a single game for Wilson is 37.0 back in 2021 against … the Patriots.)

The question surrounding the Jets is, which defense will show up for this contest? Will it be the defense that allowed just over 300 total yards (314) and had four takeaways in the season-opening win over the Bills? Or the defense that allowed 30 points and 382 yards against the Cowboys?

The Patriots’ defense has been the better of the two sides of the ball thus far. And despite that, they still nearly gave up 400 yards at home last week to the Miami Dolphins (389 yards). Stopping the Jets’ rushing attack and forcing Wilson to beat them should be a popular strategy for the Patriots.

And while they allowed 145 yards on the ground to the Dolphins last week, the Patriots are facing a Jets team that was led in rushing last week by Wilson, who had all of 36 yards.

MORE: Week 3 NFL Betting Predictions

It’s hard to see the Patriots not being able to cover a spread that’s less than a field goal against a team they have beaten 14 times in a row. But I’m more inclined to go with the under as the play there. In 13 of the 14 losses the Jets have endured during this losing streak to the Patriots, they have scored more than 17 points once. Once.

Assuming the Jets’ defense performs better at home than last week in Dallas, this doesn’t figure to be anything other than a low-scoring game. Even the lowest over/under total on the board this week doesn’t scare me.

Best Bet: Under 36 points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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