In this Thursday’s New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup, we get a repeat of the unforgettable Super Bowl LI, but who does our prediction for the game have coming out on top this week? Let’s take a look at the performance of these two teams this year, the NFL odds, make a prediction for the outcome, and look at what channel/station you can watch/listen to this Patriots at Falcons clash.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction and odds | Week 11
- Spread: Patriots -6.5 (odds from DraftKings sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Patriots -280; Falcons +225
- Over/Under: 47
The Patriots come into this game on a four-game win streak with some awe-inspiring numbers on both sides of the ball. They have scored 37.5 points per game in those four games while allowing just 12.5 points per game. In the last two weeks, opponents have a combined 13 points.
When we look at their performance against the spread, they are 6-4, but 4-3 as favorites. Nevertheless, they’ve covered in the last four games, including three times as favorites.
Additionally, despite their sturdy defense, the over has hit in five of their last six games. Those stats would suggest that our prediction should have the Patriots covering and the over hitting this week.
Atlanta’s volatility continues
The Falcons’ season has been quite the roller coaster. They have alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks, but their loss to the Dallas Cowboys was a new low point for the season. Their offense has been hard to judge, having scored 30 and 27 points in Weeks 7 and 9, respectively, but just 13 and 3 in Weeks 8 and 10. Their defense had been performing reasonably until giving up 43 points to the Cowboys last week.
Atlanta is 3-5-1 against the spread this season and 2-3 as underdogs. Playing in Atlanta, they are 0-3 against the spread, with their only “home” cover coming in their London game against the Jets. In games in Atlanta, the under is 2-1 across the three games, largely due to the ineptitude of the Falcons’ offense in those games.
Patriots vs. Falcons prediction
After last week, this game feels like it should only go one way. The Patriots had their way with the Browns across several aspects in what was an extremely impressive performance. They made their run game work against one of the best run defenses in the league, and Mac Jones made some fantastic throws.
As for Atlanta, everything that could go wrong went wrong against Dallas. Down 28-3 — a scoreline they are all too familiar with — the Cowboys blocked a punt for a touchdown, adding the icing on the cake of a disastrous week for Atlanta. They will be looking to bounce back, but the way the Patriots are playing right now, it’s hard to see them losing.
Patriots at Falcons prediction: Patriots 30, Falcons 23