Patriots vs. Bills Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Josh Allen, Rhamondre Stevenson, Mac Jones, and Others

Tonight is the fourth meeting between these rivals in less than a calendar year. Here are top Patriots vs. Bills prop bets for Thursday Night Football.

If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this thrilling New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Week 13 matchup on Thursday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

Top Patriots vs. Bills Player Prop Bets To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

These recommended bets assume the Bills will win by a rough score of 23-16. This marks the fourth meeting between these two clubs in less than a calendar year. Buffalo won the last two, while the Patriots eked out a snowy, windy victory early last December when Mac Jones attempted only three passes.

In that weather-impacted New England victory, three Pats RBs combined for 217 rushing yards on 38 attempts, or 5.7 yards per carry. With only Stevenson expected to carry the load tonight, I’m not expecting similar heroics.

Josh Allen Player Props

As well as New England has played on defense, we need to consider that five of their opponents are among the bottom 11 in passing yards. A sixth team featured overwhelmed QB Sam Ehlinger in (assuredly) his final start of the season.

We all know Buffalo’s offense is the real deal, and tonight should serve as another example of a great offense overpowering and outmaneuvering a great defense. Since posting 31 points on the road against the Rams in Week 1, followed by 41 versus the impressive Titans in Week 2, the Bills have looked unstoppable when playing their best football.

And “their best” is the key. Josh Allen drives this offense. As long as his elbow holds up, it’s hard to envision New England shutting him down. Perhaps more modest numbers than usual? Sure.

But the Pats are surrendering the sixth most QB rushing yards. If Allen doesn’t find much room downfield, he won’t hesitate to pick up chunk yards and force New England to weigh losing on the ground or through the air.

  • Passing yards under 267.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
  • Passing touchdowns over 1.5
    (-155) — BetMGM
  • Interceptions under 0.5
    (+110) — DraftKings
  • Rushing yards over 42.5
    (-114) — FanDuel

Stefon Diggs Player Props

I love Stefon Diggs netting his 10th score tonight. But a 5-65 line seems more realistic than a 7-85. Of course, those who watched Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen scorch New England on Thanksgiving might think differently.

Now let me hit you with a moon-sized bucket of truth: Jefferson’s and Thielen’s nine catches apiece marked the first time anyone’s caught more than six passes against the Patriots since Week 3 (Mark Andrews). And Tyreek Hill (Week 1) is the only other wideout to have accomplished this feat.

By and large, New England defenders have forced opposing QBs to show some humanity and spread the ball around. Bad news for Diggs. Great news for his fellow humans.

  • Receptions under 6.5
    (+106) — FanDuel
  • Receiving yards under 84.5
    (-114) — FanDuel

Mac Jones Player Props

Has Mac Jones turned a corner? Not long ago, he was pulled for Bailey Zappe, who briefly looked like a better fit in this offense. But turnovers doomed Zappe (for now), giving Jones the opening to rebound. And the rest is modern history.

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But I’m not yet sold on Jones, particularly in a brutal road game like this one. The Bills are second in the league in interceptions — an area where Jones has severely struggled until recently. CB extraordinaire Tre’Davious White returned last week, playing 16 snaps; he should have a bigger impact tonight.

  • Passing yards under 226.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
  • Passing touchdowns under 1.5
    (-225) — DraftKings

Rhamondre Stevenson Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson will get all he can handle this evening — or much less if the Patriots find themselves down around 18+ points in the third quarter. Although he ran efficiently against Minnesota last week, since Week 6, he’s averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, compared to a blistering 5.5 in the opening five weeks.

Stevenson’s greatness must be balanced by the weight of enduring the heaviest workload of his career. The numbers don’t lie, and facing a solid Bills run defense, he might have something like a 23-85 ceiling. More realistically, if New England has to prematurely abandon the run, he might wind up with only around 15-57.

I came up with those estimates before looking at his prop lines, so they wouldn’t subconsciously influence my projections. As it turns out, his lines assume he’ll be phased out fairly early in the running game. So relatively speaking, I’m more bullish than market expectations. That makes him a buy in the props world.

  • Rushing attempts over 15.5
    (-114) — FanDuel
  • Rushing yards over 61.5
    (-114) — FanDuel
  • Receptions over 4.5
    (EVEN) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards over 35.5
    (-114) — FanDuel
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