Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, Pick: Who wins on Monday Night Football?

The AFC East is heating up -- let's break down the Week 13 Bills vs. Patriots conference clash and make a pick and prediction.

The Buffalo Bills bounced back in New Orleans, taking down the Saints 31-6. However, now they face the on-form Patriots in what will be a completely different test in Week 13. New England is one of the hottest teams in the league, and that’s never a good thing for any of their AFC East rivals. Let’s break down the Patriots vs. Bills conference clash, the NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills pick, prediction | Week 13

  • Spread:  Bills -3 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Bills -160, Patriots +140
  • Over/Under: 45

I’m somewhat stunned by the line on this game. The New England Patriots have given up a grand total of 26 points in their last four games combined. The offense is running at an efficiency no other team in the NFL is currently matching.

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Mac Jones has slotted into the Patriots’ system without a single hitch. He’s exactly what New England knew they needed and can run that offense with no problem. They’re healthy, have a great group of backs, and run the ball effectively each week. Any one of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, or Brandon Bolden can open up the game at any time. Stevenson is particularly looking like an excellent draft pick.

Bill Belichick has rebuilt his roster and added what he wanted. Now, the Patriots are at the 12-week mark and back at the top of the AFC East. It’s somewhat concerning for fans of any other team that the Patriots are heating up the way they are.

The Bills have been inconsistent lately

The Bills, on the other hand, managed a bounce-back win against a Saints team missing a whole list of players. Buffalo themselves got a couple of key pieces back, including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.

Buffalo’s defense played well. The Bills limited Trevor Siemian and the Saints to only 6 points, and they gave Josh Allen and the offense a chance to spend plenty of time on the field. They were a little slow to get going but ended the game with a decent 31-point haul. Josh Allen continues to effectively run when given the space to do so — my concern is how much of a chance New England will allow him to do that. Allen will also need to limit the turnovers to stand a chance against the Patriots, having thrown 7 picks in his last four outings.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills betting trends

Buffalo has been the favorite in all but one game this season (Kansas City), which they won outright. They go into this one at home once again the favorites, but they’re 2-2 in their last four weeks against the spread (ATS). The Bills are 6-4-1 ATS after starting 4-0 — they’ve gone for two wins, three losses, and a push in the last six games. Buffalo is also 6-6 with over/unders.

The Patriots have covered the spread the last six weeks in a row. They’ve been the favorite in five of those six games and covered spreads up to -7.5 (which they’ve done twice vs. the Jets and the Titans). They’re 8-4 ATS for the season after starting 1-3. New England is 5-6 covering the overs, going 2-2 in their last four, with the defense holding teams to minimal scoring totals.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills prediction

In my mind, the Patriots are a heavy favorite for this game. I was shocked to see the line open up at +3 for them. I’d expect to see that come down before the Monday Night Football game because I think a lot of bettors will be going after it. The Bills might have beaten the Saints comfortably, but they still don’t run the ball well unless Josh Allen takes off. Buffalo is too one-dimensional for an on-form, disruptive New England defense.

The Bills could not stop the Colts the week before in their own stadium. Indianapolis can run the ball, and Buffalo couldn’t stop them. The weather is not an advantage for the Bills, who needs to throw the football to win games. The Patriots, just like the Colts, can run the ball effectively and thrive on short-yardage throws. That’s not Buffalo’s game. New England wins this, covering easily.

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 13

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