If you’re competing in a DFS tournament or 50/50 fantasy football competition for today’s single-game slate between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve run through dozens of potential game scripts to arrive at the most likely scenarios and how these scenarios would impact fantasy performances. Here are our top two recommended picks for Bills vs. Patriots DFS lineups, based on FanDuel pricing.
Top NFL DFS picks for Bills vs. Patriots | Lineup No. 1
This lineup assumes the Patriots keep the game close or win outright based on a very strong backfield attack. It also assumes a low-scoring game in which two of fantasy’s most consistently good kickers can thrive and where Buffalo’s offense is mostly held in check.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($17,500)
Josh Allen has wrapped up one of the greatest QB regular seasons in NFL history. He’s the first quarterback ever to have two seasons with 400+ fantasy points. Three years ago, I thought Patrick Mahomes was a shoo-in to get there first.
Ironically, Allen’s only TD-less game came against the worst team in the league, the Jaguars. Beyond that hiccup, he’s had double-digit touchdowns in 13 games. His offensive core is almost fully healthy, and the Bills’ defense is one of the league’s best. As one of the top dual-threat QBs in the game, Allen is a terrific, high-upside DFS option.
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots ($15,600)
This will be the third meeting between the Patriots and Bills since December 6. In their first two matchups, Damien Harris rumbled for a combined 214 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28 carries.
Despite rushing for only 12 yards in his rookie 2019 campaign and 691 last season, Harris already is No. 22 all-time in Patriots rushing yards and No. 15 in rushing TDs. Furthermore, his 4.8 career yards per carry is more than half a yard better than any New England RB above him in either category. In other words, Harris might be the best running back to ever wear the white and nautical blue (um, the Patriots uniform). As he goes, so goes New England today. He belongs in your DFS MVP slot.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots ($10,000)
Can Rhamondre Stevenson thrive alongside Harris? Possibly. And that’s the risk we run starting him in DFS. But at this price, and with reports the game will be played in sub-15-degree temperatures, an RB-heavy New England attack seems likely, particularly with Buffalo boasting one of the best pass defenses (in terms of opposing QB rating) in the last 12 seasons.
While Stevenson clearly plays second-fiddle to Harris, the rookie no doubt is the real deal, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and demonstrating enough trust from head coach Bill Belichick to earn bell-cow usage, including against Buffalo in Week 13. In a run-heavy game script, Stevenson is a nice-upside option.
Tyler Bass, K, Buffalo Bills ($9,500)
Here’s where things get interesting in our first lineup. Tyler Bass is a back-end K1, though that doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s 51-for-51 on extra points and has not missed a field goal attempt since … well, that snowy mess of a game against the Patriots in Week 13.
He’s comfortably above average when it comes to field-goal accuracy (88% this season). Bass is also able to kick it from deep, including 3-for-3 from 50+ yards in last year’s playoffs. If today’s contest is as low-scoring as it might be, Bass could net four field goals.
Nick Folk, K, New England Patriots ($9,000)
We have $9,000 left. We could go with a receiver like Kendrick Bourne or Nelson Agholor. But if we believe this game will be a grind-it-out affair centered around good field position, then the No. 2 fantasy kicker is a great play for our final DFS lineup slot.
Old enough to be Bass’ uncle, the 37-year-old Nick Folk has been an extraordinary find for a franchise needing a reliable leg. 2021 marks Folk’s most productive season of his career, hitting all 31 attempts from inside the 50-yard line, as well as 5 of 8 attempts from 50+. There’s a good chance he’ll be heavily involved today.
Top NFL DFS picks for Bills vs. Patriots | Lineup No. 2
Our second lineup assumes a comfortable Bills victory, led by an effective running game and passing attack. Meanwhile, Damien Harris would be game-scripted out by halftime. Josh Allen replaces Harris in the DFS MVP slot, while Harris and both kickers would be replaced by the following new players.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills ($13,500)
A couple months ago on the PFN Facebook page, we lamented that Zack Moss inexplicably was garnering more on-the-field and fantasy love than Singletary was, even though Singletary was statistically far more impressive in the running game (5.1 yards per carry vs. 3.6 for Moss).
These days, lamentations have been replaced with sighs of relief. While his ypc has come back to Earth a little bit, Singletary has operated as the unquestioned bell cow these past four games while netting a whopping 6 touchdowns. If Buffalo’s cooking today in frigid temperatures, then Singletary should benefit.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills ($11,000)
With Allen serving as this lineup’s MVP, the assumption is that he’ll throw for at least 2 touchdowns and maybe more. Experts will tell you, “the Patriots are the best team against TEs, yielding only 6.7 fantasy points per game.” And these experts would be right.
But — and here’s where context matters more than stats — nearly all of New England’s opponents started non-top-20 TEs. The fact is, the Patriots have had an easy schedule against tight ends. Dawson Knox scored the last time these two teams faced off, his ninth of the season. He’s a sneaky start.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills ($8,000)
Almost no one will start Emmanuel Sanders in DFS today. In addition to missing the last two games with a knee injury, the veteran hasn’t surpassed 8.5 DFS points since Week 6.
We have $8,000 remaining and could choose Bourne ($8,000) or Agholor ($7,500). Both are fine dart throws. But Sanders is an intriguing, under-the-radar receiver who’s appeared in 13 playoff games for four other teams. The 34-year-old flashed earlier this season. He earned a combined 10 targets in Buffalo’s two games against New England. He could certainly flash again.