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Patriots vs. Bills DraftKings DFS Picks: Top lineup includes Josh Allen, Damien Harris, and Dawson Knox

Are you competing in a DraftKings contest for the Patriots vs. Bills playoff game? Here are our favorite DFS picks for Saturday's game.

If you’re competing in a DFS tournament or 50/50 competition for the Saturday Night Football single-game slate between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve run through dozens of potential game scripts to arrive at the most likely scenarios, and how these scenarios would impact fantasy football performances. Here are our top NFL DFS picks for the Bills vs. the Patriots, based on DraftKings pricing.

Top NFL DFS DraftKings picks for Bills vs. Patriots | Bills

This lineup assumes a hard-fought, grind-it-out game in frigid weather, featuring two teams that know each other very well after having faced off twice in recent weeks. For Buffalo, it assumes their star quarterback gets his points, while the Patriots’ stellar defense contains most of his teammates.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($19,200)

When evaluating Josh Allen’s “greatness” entering this season, there were two basic ways to measure it. One was in fantasy, where he was universally viewed (justifiably) as an ascending talent. The other was on the field, where entering his fourth NFL season he was trying to lead his team to a Super Bowl victory. Doing so would earn him a degree of immortality reserved for those deemed “winners.”

With Allen, the question was whether he’s a franchise QB or a franchise-elevating QB. There is a clear distinction. We know it when we see it. Franchise QBs are better than replacement value while franchise-elevating QBs are irreplaceable.

On balance this season, Allen has been irreplaceable. Still only 25 years old, he’s continually improving. Notably, this season he’s run more than ever before (122 attempts) and for more yards than ever before (763). This elite-level, dual-threat ability should serve him well Saturday night. In their first matchup this season, Allen looked tentative against the Patriots, running it only 6 times for 39 yards. In their next matchup — a victory — he ran 12 times for 64 yards.

That will be the key for Allen in this playoff game. If he’s forcing the Patriots to lose focus because of his continual threat to run, he should finish as the top fantasy scorer of the evening.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills ($6,600)

We’re not anticipating Allen going deep too often tonight. This game will be won largely in the trenches and on the successful execution of pile-moving runs and quick-out routes.

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Dawson Knox could thrive in this scenario as a primary passing-game target and weekly touchdown threat. The Bills are too deep on offense for the Patriots to lock down more than one receiver, maybe two. Knox should find some openings.

Tyler Bass, K, Buffalo Bills ($4,000)

What do you get when you cross two great defenses in sub-15-degree weather without heavy winds? Quite possibly, a kicker-friendly game.

Tyler Bass has demonstrated that he can connect from nearly 60 yards when necessary. By the second quarter, these teams should have a good sense of how many points they’ll need to win, and whether going for a field goal on fourth-and-2 from their opponent’s 25-yard line makes sense. There’s a good chance they’ll take the 3 points and put their faith in their defense.

Top NFL DFS DraftKings picks for Bills vs. Patriots | Patriots

New England’s players assume their backfield comfortably outperforms their passing game, as we’ve seen for much of this season. These players also reflect Mac Jones’ likely limitations in extraordinarily cold weather, facing one of the NFL’s best passing defenses in more than a decade.

Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots ($10,400)

It’s hard to imagine New England competing if Damien Harris has an off game. So this lineup assumes the Pats remain competitive enough to keep operating through their backfield. Interestingly, Harris has averaged fewer yards per carry when trailing vs. when tied or winning. Similarly, Jones’ QB rating is more than 20 points worse when trailing vs. when tied or winning.

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These combined stats suggest Jones has faced difficulty in catch-up mode — perhaps due in part to lack of NFL experience. So the hope here is that the Patriots keep things close enough where they can remain patient on offense, working through Harris to generate yards and possibly a touchdown or two.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, New England Patriots ($5,200)

For nearly two months, spanning most of October and November, Kendrick Bourne was on the weekly streamer radar. That’s the luxury of finding the end zone — something Bourne did 5 times during that stretch, including on a 25-yard TD throw to Nelson Agholor to open their Week 7 scoring against the hapless Jets.

Ironically, Bourne’s offensive snap count during the Week 15-18 stretch was as high as ever. But he hasn’t scored, and that’s made him fantasy kryptonite. Is that fair? Of course not. He’s still getting roughly the same number of looks. So at this price, Bourne is a nice dart throw. He’s as likely to score as any Patriots receiver.

Nick Folk, K, New England Patriots ($4,200)

Entering this season, Nick Folk’s best statistical campaign was in his rookie year — all the way back in 2007 as a sixth-round rookie with the Dallas Cowboys. This season, he’s enjoyed a career-high 36 made field goals, thanks in part to a career-high 5 makes from 50+ yards. In fact, every season he’s hit at least once from 50+.

Moreover, in the last two years, he’s 62-of-67 on field-goal attempts (92.5%). For context, Justin Tucker is 61-of-66 these past two years (92.4%). So yes, Folk is not just good. He’s playing at an elite level. That’s the kind of player we want in this kind of game.

BJ Rudell is the Fantasy Football Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of BJ’s work here, listen to him on PFN’s Fantasy Football podcast, and check out his contributions in PFN’s free fantasy newsletter. Give him a follow on Twitter: @BJRudell.

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