This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without sound decision-making on a consistent basis, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at the New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals game and try to optimize your lineup with players who on your radar.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -8.5
- Total: 41
- Patriots implied points: 16.3
- Bengals implied points: 24.8
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Should Joe Burrow Be Ranked Outside of the Top 10 This Week?
- Fantasy Points: 17.9
- Passing Yards: 242.8
- Passing TDs: 1.8
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 9.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
Sitting Burrow is a viable move for fantasy managers to open this season. I have him just inside my top 12 at the position, so I’m not writing him off, but you need to be aware that he is sitting atop a tier that extends all the way down to QB20. Those 10 quarterbacks are separated by very little, and he is at risk of underwhelming.
First and foremost, we aren’t sure how healthy Burrow is. The great Stephania Bell has been cautioning against labeling a return to practice and a return to form as anything but two different things. Burrow is going to play this week, but he’s been managed all offseason long and could certainly be limited.
As concerning as it is, it gets worse when you look back at slow season openers for Burrow in each of the past two seasons (cumulative Week 1 stats: 84 pass attempts, two touchdowns, and four interceptions).
Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase had loud offseasons while Joe Mixon moved on. This offense should still be good, but it might require time. Yet, that’s several moving pieces to take into a game against a Patriots team that excelled on the defensive side of the ball:
- Third-fewest yards per drive
- Fourth-lowest touchdown rate
- Sixth-best red-zone defense
- Seventh in blitz rate
I’m playing both of the primary rookie quarterbacks over Burrow this week if I have the chance, and I think it’s within the range of outcomes for a veteran like Derek Carr (vs. WAS) or Matthew Stafford (at DET) to post a better total to open the season.
Is Rhamondre Stevenson Still a Lineup Lock?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.0
- Rushing Yards: 48.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 2.5
- Receiving Yards: 16.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Some players are gifted enough to rise above an offensive environment that offers support, but most fall victim to such situations and Stevenson seems to be falling into that bucket.
Last season, just 6.4% of his carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs). I don’t think he is most to blame for that. It’s tough when 60.9% of your carries come with 7+ defenders in the box, but the situation projects no different this year than last, and that has him sitting outside of my top-20 at the position, a spot in the ranks I expect him to occupy all season long.
If you drafted him as something of a Zero RB build, he’s fine. He’ll get his fair share of touches, and the Bengals were the second worst first down rush defense of the past decade last season by EPA. It’s not likely to be an exciting day at the office, though his role does carry enough of a floor if you hammered the other positions early.
Is Zack Moss or Chase Brown Worth Your While?
- Fantasy Points (PPR)
Brown: 8.5
Moss: 10.0 - Rushing Yards
Brown: 28.5
Moss: 54.8 - Rushing TDs
Brown: 0.1
Moss: 0.2 - Receptions
Brown: 2.2
Moss: 1.5 - Receiving Yards
Brown: 24.9
Moss: 12.1 - Receiving TDs
Brown: 0.1
Moss: 0.1
Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will Cincinnati lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?
When Zack Moss got 15 or more rushing attempts last SZN (he did in 6 games) he averaged: ⬇️👀
– 92.2 rushing yards per game
– 4.33 Y/C on 126 attempts
– .66 TDs per gameI love this signing by the Bengals. Win/Win situation.
– Bengals get a good RB that doesn’t need to be… pic.twitter.com/MQoRbjjBbV
— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 2, 2024
We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.
Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.
This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.
Is Ja’Lynn Polk the Sleeper in This Loaded WR Class?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.4
- Receptions: 2.1
- Receiving Yards: 31.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
The encouraging second-round pick deserves to be rostered due to the lack of clarity in target distribution for New England. However, we are a ways away from playing a Patriots pass catcher in annual leagues with any degree of confidence.
The Bengals allowed a league-high 12.3 yards per completion in 2023, making them a defense to target, generally speaking, though this low-octane offense isn’t one that I’m comfortable betting on at the moment.
With Kendrick Bourne (Week 8 ACL tear, PUP list) on the shelf, a high-volume DFS player might take a stab at the highest upside member of this receiving room, but for most of us, Polk is very much a wait-and-see prospect.
Should PPR Managers Flock to DeMario Douglas?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.9
- Receptions: 2.7
- Receiving Yards: 33.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Receivers with relatively “boring” skill sets need at least quality or quantity of targets to play in their favor, potentially both. I’m not sure Douglas opens the season with either.
After all, we had a hard time extracting value from Tyler Boyd while he was with the Bengals, and that’s who Douglas is. However, Douglas is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field on a consistent basis in an offense that is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field.
Douglas averaged 8.6 YAC on balls thrown less than five yards last season, third-best among qualifiers (behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice), but this situation simply isn’t built for fantasy success.
I’d hang onto him for now if you don’t have a pressing, must-add on the wire and hope that he can earn a heavy target share, but I’m not optimistic that this offense supports a single pass catcher you have to roster.
What Is Ja’Marr Chase’s Outlook After an Uneven Offseason?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.1
- Receptions: 5.7
- Receiving Yards: 77.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.6
His status for this game has become a talking point, as he and head coach Zach Taylor are pretty clearly not on the same page.
Last week, Taylor indicated that Chase would be a full participant in practice despite a contract “hold in,” and less than 24 hours later, the team’s WR1 showed up late for practice wearing street clothes and not pads.
With two years left on his deal, this appears to be more of a power play by Chase than the use of much leverage, but the fact remains that his status is uncertain. If he plays, you play him. I hate to make it that simple, but he has seven of the top-10 WR games produced over the past two seasons when Burrow is under center, including four better than Higgins’ best over that stretch.
Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas should be added to the back end of your roster whether you roster Chase or not – free pieces of a Burrow-led offense are worth a roll of the dice should this situation get uglier.
Should Tee Higgins Be Started With Confidence?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
- Receptions: 3.7
- Receiving Yards: 54.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
And we all thought Higgins would be the most disgruntled Bengal receiver in Cincy entering the season. It hasn’t been a banner offseason for the Orange and Black, but Higgins has been with the team and, regardless of Chase’s status, might be most well-positioned to make a mark against a stingy Patriots defense.
Last season, 12 of the top 14 WR performances against New England saw that player post at least a 9.8 aDOT in that game, with the average being far higher than that (13.4).
Since the start of 2022 on passes from Joe Burrow:
- Higgins: 11.5 aDOT
- Chase: 9.5 aDOT
Higgins was viewed as the bottom of the “you’re very good, but you’re still the WR2 in your own offense” tier of receivers, getting picked up to two rounds after Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Even in a tough matchup, I have him ranked ahead of two of those three and believe he’s a locked-in WR2.
Can Hunter Henry Be New England’s Top Target?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.4
- Receptions: 2.5
- Receiving Yards: 28.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
Henry scored twice in his first two games and three times in his final two – and once in between. With this team bringing in target competition without much promise in terms of significant offensive upside, this isn’t a unit I’m targeting if I’m streaming the tight end position.
If the scratch you need to itch is that of an AFC East waiver wire tight end, Tyler Conklin and Jonnu Smith have my attention more than Henry.
Is Mike Gesicki a Week 1 Sleeper?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 4.2
- Receptions: 1.7
- Receiving Yards: 18.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
There will be a time this season in which the stat “he runs a route on over 70% of his career snaps” will matter, which is why I have Mike Gesicki labeled as a tight end sleeper. However, in Week 1, there’s no need to go to a thin option like this.
I believe there will be a third option in Cincinnati’s passing game that will be of interest to fantasy managers, and Gesicki is my bet. Add him to your watch list now, and be patient.