The New England Patriots stunned the football world last Sunday when they scored a season-opening upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a validating performance for first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, who ran a demanding and physical training camp.
Upsets happen all the time, though, especially in season openers. While fans certainly should feel better about the Patriots, we still don’t know whether the Week 1 performance was indicative of a team primed to exceed expectations.
But if the Patriots replicate the performance this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks? Then we might be onto something.
The Seahawks don’t have as much talent as Cincinnati, but their defense is better and they’re a more physical team overall. In some respects, Seattle is a worse matchup than the Bengals for New England.
Let’s look at five big keys to the Patriots earning a win in Sunday’s home opener.
What Patriots Must Do To Beat Seahawks in Week 2
Protect Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett did an incredible job of managing pressure from the Bengals. The veteran quarterback showed poise in the pocket, took multiple big hits, and made plays with his arm and legs in key situations.
The Bengals posted a 44.8% pressure rate against Brissett, the second-highest rate for any defense in Week 1, according to TruMedia.
The highest rate belonged to the Seahawks, who pressured Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix on 44.9% of his dropbacks. In his first game as Seattle’s head coach, former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald deployed varied and effective pass-rush packages.
Brissett and the Patriots got away with it against the Bengals, who have an iffy secondary and allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to run all over them. But the Seahawks have a much better run defense — they tied for fourth in Week 1 with a 75% rush defense success rate — and are better in the secondary with stud corners Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon.
If Brissett gets pressured at a similar rate on Sunday, he’ll need his receivers to counter by getting open quickly against Seattle’s secondary. That might be too big of an ask.
It was just one game, but the Seahawks ranked first in defensive EPA last week after ranking 29th in 2023.
Win the Time-of-Possession Battle
A clear path to victory for New England: ride the running game into long scoring drives and keep the ball out of the hands of Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense.
The Patriots won the time-of-possession battle against the Bengals by nearly nine minutes (34:03-25:57). Meanwhile, Seattle lost its time-of-possession battle against Denver, holding the ball for 28:46 compared to 31:14 for the Broncos.
Obviously, it didn’t prevent the Seahawks from winning. But this is a longstanding issue for Seattle, which was out-possessed in each of the last four seasons.
For the Patriots, it’s not just about running the ball effectively. They need to get off the field on third downs and generate turnovers. This could be another area in which Mayo’s hardcore training camp could prove advantageous.
The Patriots missed just 5% of their tackle attempts in Week 1, per TruMedia. No other team missed fewer than 10%.
If the Patriots tackle that well again, they’ll have a good shot at beating the Seahawks.
Reach the Red Zone — and Convert
The Patriots reached the red zone on four of their 10 drives in Week 1, good for 40%. That was an improvement upon last season when New England reached the red zone on just 17.3% of drives, ranking last in the NFL.
By contrast, the Seahawks, who made it to the red zone on just one of 13 drives in Week 1, ranked 12th in red-zone drive percentage last season (30.3%).
Again, it was just one week. And both teams have new head coaches and offensive coordinators, so their offensive numbers from 2023 might not mean much. Regardless, if the Patriots reach the red zone more often than Seattle, they’ll probably win.
But it’s not just about reaching the red zone. One touchdown and three Joey Slye field goals were enough to win the season opener, but the Patriots must score more touchdowns.
Look for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper to be top targets if New England nears the goal line. Brissett and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt love themselves some tight ends.
As for the Patriots defense, they’re historically stingy in the red zone. Since Week 1 of last season, New England has been the only defense to rank top-six in both red-zone defense and first downs allowed.
Make Big Plays in the Passing Game
The Patriots weren’t exactly explosive in Week 1. Their four longest plays were a 16-yard run by Brissett, a 16-yard run by Stevenson, a 16-yard catch by Hooper, and a 17-yard catch by Tyquan Thornton. New England was the only team without a play of 20+ yards in Week 1.
The Seahawks hit on three such plays against Denver: a 34-yard TD run by Smith, a 23-yard TD run by Kenneth Walker III (who’s dealing with an oblique injury), and a 30-yard TD catch by Zach Charbonnet. They also got a 19-yard reception from Tyler Lockett.
The Patriots have the pass-catching talent to generate big plays. DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Thornton all can make plays down the field, and Henry remains an above-average receiving tight end.
But, again, none of that will matter if Brissett doesn’t operate from a clean pocket.
Keep Geno Smith in the Pocket
At 33 years old, Smith isn’t as mobile as he once was. His rushing yards declined from 366 in 2022 to 155 in 2023. But the veteran still can move, as evidenced by his 34-yard scamper in Week 1.
In fact, with that run, Smith became just the fourth QB aged 30 years or older since 2000 with a TD run of 30+ yards. The other three QBs are Ryan Tannehill, Byron Leftwich, and Donovan McNabb.
New England’s secondary should be able to hold up against Seattle’s receivers, and Smith isn’t a threat to run wild. But the Patriots can’t allow Smith to break contain on broken plays, especially on third downs.