After two quality years to start his NFL career, the arrow was firmly pointing up on Pat Freiermuth entering the 2023 season. Unfortunately, a combination of injuries and dreadful quarterback play led to a complete disaster of a season. With a bunch of offensive changes for the Pittsburgh Steelers, can Pat Freiermuth’s fantasy football value be restored in 2024?
Pat Freiermuth’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s really hard to find any silver lining in Freiermuth’s 2023 performance. Seeing him score twice in the first month of the season was helpful, but he also caught a grand total of eight passes over that span. Then, Freiermuth got hurt and missed the next five games.
When Freiermuth returned, it was more of the same. I guess we can look at his nine-catch, 120-yard Week 12 explosion as an example of his upside, but it’s hard to put too much stock into an outlier when he quite literally did not catch more than three passes in any other game.
The Steelers weren’t exactly a team with an abundance of offensive weapons. They had two main threats in the passing game: Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Freiermuth should’ve been third.
Instead, Freiermuth became an afterthought. His 13.9% target share was a 5.1% drop from the previous year. His 1.13 yards per route run was 31st in the league, and he averaged just 6.6 yards per target, 32nd in the league.
The best argument for a Freiermuth bounce-back is looking at his first two seasons. We saw what Freiermuth is capable of. He averaged 9.5 and 9.3 fantasy points per game (ppg) in 2021 and 2022, respectively. I believe he has the potential to be an 11-12 ppg guy. But two things need to happen.
First, Freiermuth needs more volume. With Johnson now in Carolina, there’s even less target competition than he had during his first three seasons. Freiermuth has a very real chance to be second on this team in targets behind Pickens.
Second, the Steelers, in general, need better quarterback play. They’re going to get it. That’s a certainty. However, there’s a stark difference between improved quarterback play and impactful quarterback play.
It’s not exactly difficult for Russell Wilson or Justin Fields to be better than Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will be able to propel Freiermuth to TE1 heights.
Furthermore, there’s the issue of the Steelers being incredibly run-heavy. Last season, they led the league with a 52% neutral-game-script run rate. This season, they brought in Arthur Smith to be the offensive coordinator. His Falcons were second behind the Steelers with a 51% neutral-game-script run rate.
The Steelers have two capable backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. They have a history of running the ball at excessive rates and an offensive coordinator who operates the same way. Even if Freiermuth’s target share ticks up, the overall passing volume may render it largely meaningless.
If there is a silver lining, it’s the price. Freiermuth’s ADP is currently TE15, No. 130 overall. This is a guy who was going inside the top 10 just one year ago.
I have Freiermuth at TE34 as well. While I am not looking to draft him specifically, we all have to draft someone at tight end. If I end up missing out on a top-12 TE, Freiermuth has as much upside as anyone outside of the TE1s.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insights on Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth burst onto the fantasy football scene. He scored on 17.4% of his collegiate receptions at Penn State and his nose for the end zone seemingly translated — he was one of four tight ends to catch 60 passes and score seven times during his 2021 rookie season.
It’s been tough sledding since, though, as he has scored just four times in 28 games, a crippling development given that he averages under 10 yards per catch for his career and offers very little upside aside from touchdown count.
Can he recover with a change under center in his age-25 season, and should you select him at his current 133rd ADP?
What’s the upside? Why invest in an Arthur Smith offense if you’re not forced to?
Freiermuth is being selected as TE15 and outside of the first 10 rounds. But in a position that is getting increasingly deep, his profile just doesn’t interest me at all. He has one career game with over 85 receiving yards – and 18 with under 30. Generally speaking, I don’t mind a low floor at the position, but if there isn’t a high ceiling to complement that risk, what exactly are you aiming for?
Cole Kmet and Luke Musgrave are a pair of NFC North tight ends being drafted in this range. I’m not positive they outproduce Freiermuth, but I’d rather bet on their respective offenses, which have the potential to score 30 points in any given week.
Heck, you could make the same case for Jonnu Smith with the explosive Dolphins. Cade Otton never comes off the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that at least gives him the opportunity to fall into some PPR value. If you’re considering Freiermuth at the end of your draft, you can aim for a higher ceiling with the understanding that you’re likely to be cycling through the position throughout the season.