This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without consistently sound decision-making, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at the Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints game and try to optimize your lineup with the players that are on your radar.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -4.5
- Total: 40
- Panthers implied points: 18
- Saints implied points: 22
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Is Bryce Young a Superflex Option?
- Fantasy Points: 8.0
- Passing Yards: 132.1
- Passing TDs: 0.5
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 11.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I am here for the Year 2 Young emergence.
OK, that might be a bit strong. What I meant to say was that I expect him to prove that he isn’t nearly as bad as the underlying metrics of his rookie season suggest, but that he’s still a very long shot to matter in our game for anyone not playing in a Superflex league.
Dave Canales certainly has an impressive track record when it comes to squeezing production out of his signal-callers, and maybe he can do it to Young, a QB with plenty of room to grow. Heck, maybe we see signs of it this week against a Saints team that I like to put points on the board.
Under Canales:
- Geno Smith: 29 chances (completions + runs) in Week 1, 2022
- Baker Mayfield: 29 chances in Week 1, 2023
Young only had one game last season with 29+ chances, so from a sheer volume standpoint, I think he can overachieve the little that we have seen from him.
That said, let’s not get crazy for a QB who had one game with multiple passing scores after mid-October and is in a less-than-favorable spot.
Is Derek Carr the DFS Sleeper of the Week?
- Fantasy Points: 10.3
- Passing Yards: 164.7
- Passing TDs: 1.0
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 3.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
Ready for the time-to-overthink-it-with-these-100%-accurate-facts-that-are-too-good-to-be-true play of the week?
We are so back. Man, I love this game.
There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top-eight in preventing pressure on their quarterback facing a defense that was bottom-eight in generating pressure.
I’m unable to formulate that as a trivia question due to the structure of this article, but yes, it’s Carr and the Saints against the Panthers.
The Saints weren’t at full strength in the first meeting with the Panthers last season, and New Orleans had to ask for extra space on the injury report for their QB when these teams matched up for a second time last year, so I’m not reading too far into the underwhelming numbers of 2023 in this spot.
Instead, I’m focusing on what should be a clean pocket for Carr to operate from.
Last season, of 30 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per pass when not pressured and 23rd when feeling the heat. Now that I’ve sold you (maybe) that he can be efficient, let’s address the upside.
Over the past five seasons on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
The quantity of deep throws is often the sticking point for fantasy managers, and while I’ll agree that is prohibitive most weeks, I’m not sure it will be in this spot with all offseason to prepare for a defense that ranked bottom-10 in touchdown-to-interception rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt when defending those passes.
Carr has had a 25+ fantasy point game in seven of 10 seasons, and in those games, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 16.7% above his career average.
I can’t rank him as a top-10 play due to a lack of upside on the ground and all 32 teams being in action, but given the quality of QB not available on the main DFS slate due to the loading up of prime-time games, I can pitch him as an interesting GPP play that you can double stack for cheap and still have a Jonathan Taylor/Tank Dell mini stack.
Can Chuba Hubbard Take Advantage of His Role?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
- Rushing Yards: 40.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 1.6
- Receiving Yards: 11.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Jonathon Brooks was officially placed on PUP after the preseason ended, and that gives Hubbard some utility early on — emphasis on “some.”
Hubbard was featured in this underwhelming offense a season ago, and despite playing in every game, he turned that strong volume into just three finishes better than RB18.
If that’s his ceiling, is the chasing of volume even worth it against the best defense in terms of success rate against the run? I have Brian Robinson Jr. and Tony Pollard, two running backs not promised high-end volume, ranked higher for Week 1 thanks to an expected edge in efficiency and/or overall game environment.
Hubbard checks in as a fringe Flex option for me. He offers a level of safety that a Jameson Williams or Christian Watson does not, but he’s going to have to do better than the 0.66 points per touch he gave us last season, which was third-worst among qualified backs.
Can Alvin Kamara Hold Off Father Time?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
- Rushing Yards: 46.1
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 25.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I’m largely out on Kamara this season. He’s pretty clearly past the peak of his powers, and while the pass-catching is still an asset, his ability to do anything else has me worried from a consistency perspective.
Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD):
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
That said, I’m fine with deploying him in this spot, and maybe using a big game as an excuse to move on from him. The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just under 5% of running back carries a season ago, easily the highest rate in the league. It’s a number so high that it could prevent Kamara’s seemingly inevitable regression.
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Carolina also blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season, and we all know that Carr doesn’t need an excuse to use his safety valve.
Kamara was unable to exploit this matchup last season, but I’m not worried about the predictive powers of that. I have him ranked as a starter in all spots this week.
Is Diontae Johnson a Sneaky PPR Flex Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.4
- Receptions: 4.1
- Receiving Yards: 46.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Johnson may be drafted outside of the top 35 at the position this summer, and that will be proven wrong with time. I just don’t see the point in rolling the dice on him in his Panthers debut.
Inspired by @LizLoza_FF's Diontae Johnson optimism
He's 28 and joining Bryce Young (1.01 in 2022)
Since 2004: 13x has a 27-29 year old WR joined a 1st round pick in the QBs Year 2 … 14.5 PPG (WR18 last season)
Even better? 8 of those 13 WRs exceeded 14.5 PPG pic.twitter.com/rF8mysj7aA
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 8, 2024
Last season, opponents failed to pick up a first down on 42.3% of drives against New Orleans, a rate that trailed only the Browns, and one that will likely stick against a Carolina offense that looked lost at sea for much of 2023.
I made the argument for a peaking receiver supporting a high-pedigree Year 2 QB earlier this month, so I’m very much keeping the light on for Johnson. That said, when it comes to team debuts in Week 1, I prefer Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley, and Rome Odunze to name a few in this general Flex range.
Is Adam Thielen Worthy of a Look in PPR Leagues?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.1
- Receptions: 2.4
- Receiving Yards: 24.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
From Weeks 2-6, Thielen was the highest-scoring receiver in the game, and the second-highest-scoring player in the league.
Let me say that again: Thielen was the second-highest-scoring player in the game (tweet me @KyleSoppePFN if you want the top five) over a month. What he did over that run was rack up highly efficient targets less than 10 yards down the field and make the most of them (aDOT: 8.2 yards).
I’m not sure that the short-yardage role is Thielen’s this season, and I’m even less sure that it’s a profitable spot on the field against these Saints.
Last season, New Orleans allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field and surrendered the fifth-fewest completions. With Johnson penciled in as the top target earner and facing the sixth-best team in terms of average time of possession, I’m more than content to bet against the elite volume that Thielen requires to pay off starting him.
The fantasy industry has plenty of blind spots, but the masses properly evaluated Thielen this summer. He shouldn’t be a part of your starting lineup discussion to open the season, and he isn’t the type of player who is a must-roster option.
Is Chris Olave Deserving of the ‘Star’ Label?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.9
- Receptions: 5.5
- Receiving Yards: 75.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
The fantasy community is begging to know if Olave’s talent can shine through in a top-10 sort of way with Carr under center. I have hope, and this could well be a step in the right direction given that the Panthers allowed a touchdown on 24% of opponent drives a season ago (fifth-highest rate in the NFL).
Is @chrisolave_ the most underrated WR in the league? pic.twitter.com/Q3MJsVwfyY
— NFL (@NFL) August 22, 2024
Olave has also had success against the Panthers through two seasons – he’s scored at least 12.8 PPR points in all four matchups and has earned north of 10 targets in three of those games.
Olave is a fringe WR1 for me this week, ranking alongside Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. as alpha receivers with potential upside limiters when it comes to getting them the ball.
Could Rashid Shaheed’s Breakout Season Start in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
- Receptions: 2.2
- Receiving Yards: 35.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I’m of the belief that Shaheed is good at football, but at a loaded position, he’s more of a DFS play than someone to consider for annual lineups until he becomes a 6-8 target per game asset.
For those daily contests, Shaheed is a live wire this week. He and Olave both had 40+ yard grabs against these Panthers in Week 2 last season in large part because Carr can just sit back in the pocket and let his athletes roam.
In 2023, Carolina was the second-worst defense in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.
So just blitz, right?
Wrong. The Panthers were dead last in pressure percentage when bringing the extra man.
I don’t expect Shaheed to garner much ownership with a full schedule this week, and we know the upside is there for a single catch to pay off his price tag.
Is A.T. Perry Worthy of Stashing?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 4.4
- Receptions: 1.4
- Receiving Yards: 19.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Everything about Shaheed’s profile rings true for Perry, as well. The former Demon Deacon has the size (6’5”) and athleticism to dominate jump ball situations; if Carr is going to have all day to identify mismatches, this could be a spot where his WR3 is on the right side of a few bombs.
There’s no reason to be looking this far down your depth chart in Week 1, but it wouldn’t shock me if his name is a popular one when Derek Tate and I do the waiver wire podcast on Monday – or if his name is on one of those “look at the winning lineup for the millionaire maker” posts.
Will Taysom Hill Own a Fantasy-Friendly Role?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.2
- Rushing Yards: 24.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 1.4
- Receiving Yards: 12.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
You’re either in or out on Hill – there simply is no gray area.
If you want to fully commit to Hill, play him every week and don’t waste too much time thinking about it. If you passed on him at the draft, keep it that way, and don’t add the Sunday scaries to your list of weekend anxieties.
Hill might be used in an improved way and prove to be a cheat code, or he will continue to be a random number generator that never has the same role in consecutive weeks.
I’m not big on randomness, and thus, will come in low on Hill (outside of the top 15) until I have a reason to pivot. We just haven’t seen him do it to open a season yet. Hill has just one double-digit PPG game in September on his NFL ledger.
I’d rather bet against Hill and have him beat me the one week I play him than spend all season chasing the ceiling weeks and standing to lose multiple matchups as a result.