The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings could have a major impact on the NFC Wild Card race. With a postseason berth hanging in the balance for both teams, which players will step up, and who could be found wanting at a crucial moment?
Ahead of the final game of Week 17, our NFL betting experts give their Packers vs. Vikings player prop bets based on where they can find value in the current odds.
Top Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets
Aaron Jones Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: When Green Bay has the ball, Jones is the play. Fantasy managers will complain about AJ Dillon vulturing a touchdown last week, but that doesn’t matter for Jones in the yardage market.
Dillon saw 42.9% of his carries against the Panthers come inside the 10-yard line, a role that carries some fantasy appeal but doesn’t worry me for Jones here.
Jones has 39 touches in his two games after missing nearly a month, clearing his rushing prop in both of those instances. He has a 20+ yard carry in both of those games and while the Vikings defense is trending in the right direction, they gave up 127 yards on 25 carries to Joe Mixon/Jahmyr Gibbs over the past two weeks.
Love’s completion percentage is down 5.0 percentage points on the road this season compared to when at home and considering that a weaker version of this Vikings defense forced him into his third-worst QBR of the season back in October, I think a run-heavy script is a logical assumption to make.
AJ Dillon Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Jason Katz: I think AJ Dillon’s broken thumb is a legitimate problem. He’s obviously going to play through it, but he played a season-low 18% of the snaps last week.
Dillon carried the ball seven times for just 12 yards. Primarily used in short-yardage situations, there’s rarely going to be an opportunity for Dillon to gain a significant number of yards.
MORE: NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
When these teams last met, Dillon operated as the lead back but only carried the ball six times for 11 yards. The Vikings allow 3.7 yards per carry to running backs and just 74 rushing yards total per game.
With Aaron Jones dominating carries, Dillon will have to break off a long run for this to lose, something he’s not adept at doing.
Jaren Hall Under 1.5 TD passes (-145 at DraftKings)
Soppe: I’m trending toward the under in this game, but given the volatility of Love, I’d rather isolate the Vikings’ pass game. This season, the Packers rank higher in pressure than blitz rate and have seen just 55.6% of touchdowns against them come through the air (10th lowest).
Just five times this season has a team thrown multiple TD passes against Green Bay, one was last week when Bryce Young was in comeback mode and threw a pair in the final 7.5 minutes. Much like sportsbooks, I think this game is close, thus ruling out a garbage time performance like that from Jaren Hall.
I’m not reading too far into it, but Justin Jefferson appears to be the lone man standing among the primary pass catchers, and he has been held out of the end zone in four of six career games against the Green and Gold.
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