The Green Bay Packers‘ RB depth chart just got a bit thinner on the eve of the 2024 NFL season.
Fifth-year rusher AJ Dillon re-signed with Green Bay in March but is now set to miss the season with a neck injury. MarShawn Lloyd’s hamstring almost landed him on short-term injured reserve, but he avoided it and will start on the active roster. Will he factor in, or is offseason acquisition Josh Jacobs the star of the show this season?
Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Conner, Benson, and Demercado in 2024.
Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 265.2 (213.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1179.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 9.6
- Receptions: 51.9
- Receiving Yards: 377.3
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
Talent obviously matters in any sport. Of course, we want talented players on our fantasy teams. But in the NFL, at running back specifically, talent is far less important than situation and opportunity.
Last season, Jacobs was woefully inefficient. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and just 4.1 yards per touch. A mere 2.1% of his rushes went for 15+ yards. His 2.89 yards created per touch were barely inside the top 50. Jacobs did face loaded boxes at a very high rate, but his 3.7 yards per carry when he saw light boxes didn’t exactly set the world on fire.
With that said, we know individual efficiency can often be tied to team efficiency. The 2023 Las Vegas Raiders were a very bad offense. As a result, it stands to reason Jacobs’ efficiency should improve on what we expect to be a far superior Packers offense.
We know Jacobs has an elite RB1 upside. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game two years ago. However, thus far, that sure looks like the outlier among his five NFL seasons.
On the Packers, Jacobs is going to be their RB1. However, head coach Matt LaFleur has never utilized a true three-down back. And it’s not like he hasn’t had a talented one. Aaron Jones was on the team for the past seven seasons. In his prime, Jones was an explosive runner as well as an elite pass-catcher. He could’ve touched the ball more than 14-15 times per game. Yet, he never really did.
Whether Jacobs averages 3.5 yards per carry (2023 average) or 4.4 yards per carry (career average before 2023) would have a minimal impact on his production. However, whether Jacobs performs well will have an impact on how much he sees the field. If Jacobs performs poorly and it results in less volume, that’s a problem. So, from that perspective, we want to see Jacobs improve.
There are certainly reasons for optimism. It should be a lot easier running in an offense quarterbacked by Jordan Love than by Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell. And it’s not even possible to quantify the improvement that is head coach Matt LaFleur over Josh McDaniels.
Ultimately, volume is king in fantasy football. Initially, I believed Jacobs would see a lot of it. After further research, I no longer am that confident. At an RB12 ADP, I don’t hate Jacobs. He’s currently my RB14. However, that’s a spot where I’m looking to draft a wide receiver instead.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
MarShawn Lloyd’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 118.0 (104.7 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 668.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.7
- Receptions: 13.4
- Receiving Yards: 133.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4
Every year, we’re reminded that outside of the elite, the running back position is impacted greatly by its situation. The strong fantasy assets are high-end talents in the perfect setting, while there is a massive tier of backs who have either above-average talent OR a plus-scoring environment.
The Packers certainly proved themselves as one of the most improved offenses last season, and the expectation is for that growth to continue for the foreseeable future. Which begs the question – where does Lloyd check in on the talent side of things?
Believe in Jordan Love but not in a hurry to pay for him or roll the dice on this muddy receiver situation? Lloyd is the player for you.
From a macro standpoint, betting against Jacobs is plenty reasonable. Only Derrick Henry averages more touches per game since he entered the NFL (Jacobs: 20.6), and he’s coming off the worst season of his career (3.5 yards per carry and a touchdown once every 38.8 rushes).
From a micro standpoint, the rising tide of Love can lift all boats.
Love’s Production Splits (playoffs included)
- Weeks 1-11: 6.9 yards/attempt, 83.8 Passer Rating
- Rest of season: 7.8 yards/attempt, 112.5 Passer Rating
Packers RB Splits (playoffs included)
- Weeks 1-11: 1.02 yards per carry before contact (27th)
- Rest of season: 1.48 yards per carry before contact (9th)
It should be no surprise that improved play under center positively impacts the running back position, but that disparity is an eye-opening one. Lloyd may not open the season with a Flex-worthy role, especially due to his hamstring injury, but stay patient with him and I think you’ll be rewarded handsomely.
Lloyd is currently being drafted in the Round 13-14 range alongside names like Antonio Gibson, Kendre Miller, and Ty Chandler. I’d make the argument that he holds both a greater floor and more contingent upside than any of those secondary backs in average-at-best offensive environments.
Keep tabs on his various bumps and bruises, but this is a backfield ripe for the picking in my opinion, and this price tag carries all the reward with no real risk.