The 2024 NFL season features a rare Friday matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil. This means homefield advantage will not be a factor in deciding who wins this game.
It will be a tale of two very different teams. The Packers are coming off of a scorching end to the season that resulted in a huge payout for their young quarterback, Jordan Love.
The Eagles started off the 2023 season 8-1 but then began to tumble and eventually ended their season with a Wild Card loss and the firing of both coordinators, Sean Desai and Brian Johnson.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles -2 - Moneyline
Eagles (-130); Packers (+110) - Over/Under
49 total points - Game time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Arena Corinthians, Sãu Paulo, Brazil
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview and Prediction
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has a history of preferring the run. His pass rate over expectation (PROE) as an offensive coordinator in the league (2019-now) has only been above zero in 2021 with the Dallas Cowboys and in 2023 with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Part of this could definitely be because the Chargers had a non-existent rushing game to lean on last year, ranking second to last in front of only the Jaguars in rushing expected points added (EPA). This aligns with previous Eagles teams perfectly, as they haven’t had a positive PROE since 2020.
Saquon Barkley looks to see a mid-career resurgence behind the best offensive line he has ever played with. In Week 1, the Eagles face a Packers run defense that ranked 14th in the league in defensive rushing EPA. New Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s defenses at Boston College ranked 46th, 87th, 50th, and 52nd in the 2020-2023 seasons in terms of rushing defensive predicted points added (PPA).
There were roughly 130 college football teams in the data set, meaning there was only one season where they weren’t in the top half. Consequently, the Packers’ defense seems likely to at least remain competitive against the run this season, but the advantage is with the Eagles.
Pre Tru Media, the Packers were the third-best team last season at generating pressure without blitzing (38.6%, NFL average: 33.3%). Luckily for the Eagles, Jalen Hurts ranked fifth among 31 quarterbacks with over 250 passing attempts in EPA per dropback under pressure.
Furthermore, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith rank 13th and 26th, respectively, among 286 pass catchers with over 100 routes run as far as yards per route run under pressure. As a team, the Eagles rank seventh in the league in offensive EPA when under pressure.
On the other side of the ball, it’s impossible not to be concerned about the Eagles’ defense. Love was ranked fourth under pressure and the Packers second overall as a team. This should be a compounded factor in the game, as the Eagles were 28th in defensive EPA when not getting pressure and 30th when they did.
They will have to depend on the rookie Quinyon Mitchell to match up against the talented Packers WRs. According to NextGenStats, the Packers had five pass catchers earn more than 45 targets in 2023, and all but one of them were in the top half of the league in average separation. Tight end Luke Musgrave was the highest and ranked second overall, with Jayden Reed behind him at 23rd overall.
The Eagles played man coverage 293 times in 2023, ranking 11th in the league. Their EPA on those plays was dead last in the NFL. In turn, the Packers’ offense ranked seventh in EPA against man coverage, seeing it on one more play than league average.
Mitchell ranked 10th among college football corners in PFF Grade in man coverage last season, which will be vital to improving his defense’s chances against this offense. The one slither of hope this defense has is Vic Fangio. Fangio is one of the top defensive minds in football and could get the best out of his guys.
Overall, this game is extremely close. The spread is only two points in favor of the Eagles for a reason. The biggest question I have is whether the Eagles’ defense can do enough to stop Love at least a couple of possessions and allow the offense to grind out a victory.
Darius Slay ranked 102nd out of 135 corners in PFF grade against man coverage last season. In 2022, he ranked 14th. Corner play is extremely volatile from year to year, and for that reason, I give the edge to the Packers.
My Picks: Packers +2, Packers ML (+110)
My Alternate Picks: A.J. Brown 60+ receiving yards, Jayden Reed 50+ receiving yards
Longshot: Saquon Barkley 80+ rushing yards
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