Packers vs. Cowboys Predictions and Expert Picks for the Wild Card Round: Back Mike McCarthy in His Revenge Game?

Will Mike McCarthy get revenge on his former team? We break it down and give out our best bets and Packers vs. Cowboys predictions.

In an NFL Wild Card Weekend filled with revenge games, the storyline of Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy going against his former team in the Green Bay Packers has been overshadowed by Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. But this game also features an ascending quarterback in Jordan Love, who will try to outpace Dak Prescott and this elite Cowboys offense at home.

In our Packers vs. Cowboys predictions, we break down this playoff matchup between two historic franchises and give out our best bets, which include picks against the spread, player props, and more.

Packers vs. Cowboys Odds

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  • Spread
    Cowboys -7
  • Moneyline
    Packers +270, Cowboys -340
  • Total

Packers vs. Cowboys Predictions and Expert Picks

Blewis: The biggest mismatch in this game is easily the Cowboys’ offense playing at home against the Packers’ defense.

In the regular season, Dallas averaged 37.4 points per game at home, which was nearly six points better than the next closest team. Prescott was particularly sensational at home, throwing for 308.8 yards per game, 22 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, with a QB rating of 120.0.

In eight home games, he threw for over 400 more yards, eight more touchdowns, had half as many interceptions, and his yards per attempt was almost two yards higher than in nine road starts.

While this Cowboys offense is basically matchup-proof at home, they get a Packers defense that was one of the worst in the NFL during the regular season. Since Joe Barry has been their defensive coordinator, this has pretty much been the story every season in Green Bay.

MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket

Considering they cleared this number in all but one home game during the regular season, and the Cowboys’ playoff woes don’t start until the Divisional Round, I’m going to take the over on their team total of 29.5 points.

Pick: Cowboys over 29.5 (-116 at FanDuel)

Bearman: With all due respect to Love and the great season the Packers have had, the Cowboys are just better, especially at home.

Dallas was a perfect 8-0 at home this season, winning six of those games by 20 or more. CeeDee Lamb might be the best wide receiver in the game, and that’s a tall list.

Prescott has this team rolling at home, and I just don’t see the Packers keeping up.

Green Bay deserves all the credit in the world for making it to the dance, but they won’t beat Dallas in Arlington, and it shouldn’t be fairly close.

Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110 at FanDuel)

Soppe: We get a hot Packers team traveling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team that has had their moments this season looking like the best team in the league. For me, this is the matchup with the widest range of outcomes, given the peaks and valleys we’ve seen from both of these teams.

Since Halloween, the Packers have lost just one game by 8+ points, and it required Baker Mayfield to post a perfect QB rating at Lambeau, the first-ever such performance.

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Even then, the Packers had the ball on Tampa Bay’s 30-yard line with a chance to get within seven points on their final possession.

The Cowboys have had their fair share of blowouts in both directions. For the season, they’ve been outscored by 16 points when facing playoff teams. Yes, the blowouts factor into that, but the wide range of outcomes is something that I’m betting on in taking the points with an upward-trending Love-led Packers team.

Pick: Packers +7.5 (-120 at ESPN BET)

Rolfe: The Cowboys, when favored at home, has been a virtual lock this season, barring one entertaining game with the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas has the better offense, the better defense, but also has the superior ability to choke at the worst moments historically.

Despite that, I am still backing the Cowboys in what should be a high-scoring game. I just don’t want to back them giving away a touchdown, so let’s go for another teaser here.

Pick: Cowboys -1.5, over 44.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Katz: For the better part of the second half of the regular season, Jayden Reed has been the Green Bay Packers’ WR1. In his final three games of the season, Reed’s lowest receiving yardage total was 52.

The Dallas Cowboys have a great defense. But Love is going to be able to complete passes. Where the Cowboys struggle the most is defending the slot. Reed runs 68% of his routes from the slot.

With the Cowboys installed as touchdown favorites, we can reasonably project negative game script for the Packers. A total of 49 yards is a low bar for Reed to cross.

Pick: Jayden Reed over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

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