Packers vs. 49ers Predictions and Expert Picks for the Divisional Round: Should You Back Jordan Love as an Underdog Again?

Can Jordan Love upset a top-seeded NFC team for the second week in a row? Our experts make their Packers vs. 49ers predictions and give out their best bets.

The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are facing each other yet again in the postseason, only this time with two different starting quarterbacks for each team. After last week’s blowout win over the Cowboys, can Jordan Love lead the Packers to another huge upset?

In our Packers vs. 49ers predictions, our betting experts give out their best bets, which include picks against the spread, player props, and more.

Packers vs. 49ers Odds

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  • Spread
    49ers -9.5
  • Moneyline
    Packers +360, 49ers -450
  • Total

Packers vs. 49ers Predictions and Expert Picks

Bearman: I love the Packers and what Love (see what I did there?) have done this season, but with all due respect to the Cowboys, this is a step up in class for a very young team.

The 49ers won by double digits in 11 of 12 wins during the regular season (and the one that didn’t was a late field goal by the Rams), so I’m not worried about covering a big number here. They’re better across the board, have more experience, and are well-rested. When healthy, they’re hard to beat.

Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)

Blewis: I’m with Bearman here. I have a feeling this game is going to serve as a reminder about how good this 49ers team is, with another lopsided victory over a playoff team.

As Bearman mentioned, the 49ers’ only win of one score or less during the regular season was due to a meaningless field goal as time expired. During the season, when they were at full strength, we saw the 49ers beat up on playoff teams like the Steelers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Eagles by an average victory of 22.8 points.

MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket

The Packers’ upset over the Cowboys was really impressive, but I don’t think they have much of a chance against the Niners. It would be shocking to see the 49ers’ defense implode like Dallas did, and I don’t have any faith in the Packers’ defense shutting down their offense.

I pounced on the 49ers when the spread inexplicably dropped to eight points at ESPN BET — but I would recommend this up to 10.

Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)

Soppe: The 49ers are a big favorite in this spot and part of that is how their passing game matches up with the Packers. For the season, Green Bay creates pressure at the sixth-highest rate, a defensive style that a quick-striking San Francisco pass game could dismantle in short order.

But wait, there’s more. The Packers rank 25th in opponent completion percentage when pressured and 24th in opponent aDOT (average depth of target) in those pressured spots. Those trends point in the direction of the Niners’ All-World RB.

Catch rate when Brock Purdy is pressured:

  • Christian McCaffrey: 68.8%
  • Brandon Aiyuk: 63.3%
  • George Kittle: 57.7%
  • Deebo Samuel: 52.0%

Targets per route when Purdy is pressured:

  • Christian McCaffrey: 22.9%
  • Brandon Aiyuk: 19.6%
  • Deebo Samuel: 19.0%
  • George Kittle: 16.0%

It’s rarely a bad idea to look at CMC with optimism, and this specific matchup should be viewed no differently!

Pick: Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel)

Soppe: Jordan Love has Cheeseheads across the globe optimistic that the franchise has landed on a third straight franchise quarterback.

That may be true (I still need to be sold, but the early returns are certainly encouraging), though seeing it out west isn’t statistically likely.

Four times this season, a QB reached 270 passing yards against the 49ers, and in each of those instances, they kept picking at a scab created by an alpha target earner.

  • Week 2 (no Cooper Kupp) – Puka Nacua: 15 catches (38.5% target share)
  • Week 7 (no Justin Jefferson) – T.J. Hockenson: 10 catches (27.9% share)
  • Week 8 – Ja’Marr Chase: 10 catches (37.5% share)
  • Week 13 – AJ Brown: 8 catches (31% share)

We all like the direction of this Jordan Love pass game, but there is no denying that this Packers offense, at the moment, lacks an alpha receiver that can take over a game like what we saw in the above instances.

  • Average top GB earner, 2023: 23.9% target share
    • Average top GB earner, since Week 6 bye: 22.3% target share

Outside of those standout performances, the 49ers cough up just 193.6 yards through the air per game and only 6.0 yards per attempt. At that per pass production, Love would have to throw at least 42 passes, something he hasn’t done since September (Week 3 vs. Saints).

Pick: Jordan Love under 250.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Rolfe: This line for Brandon Aiyuk immediately stood out to me when talking about a WR that had over 100 receiving yards in three of the final four games that mattered for the 49ers this season. Aiyuk did play in the final game of the season, but that can hardly be held against him, given the lack of talent surrounding him.

Aiyuk has proven himself to be a crucial part of this offense, topping 100 yards in seven of his 16 games and going over 70 yards in eight of them. The Packers’ defense allowed an average of 171.25 yards per game to WRs in the final four weeks of the season, so I expect Aiyuk to breeze past the 70-yard mark.

MORE: Updated Super Bowl 58 Odds

Given he also got to six receptions in three of those four games that matter, over 5.5 receptions at +165 is also something I may well jump on ahead of kickoff.

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at ESPN BET)

Katz: It goes without saying anyone can pop off for a huge reception, leading to him finishing with the most receiving yards in the Divisional Round. But realistically, one of the five favorites should probably win it.

Brandon Aiyuk is listed behind the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, and Mike Evans. Is Aiyuk likely to lead the weekend receiving? Of course not. But should he be priced this far behind Collins? I don’t think so.

Aiyuk is the 49ers WR1. Their game against the Packers has the highest total of the slate. He topped 100 yards receiving in seven games this season. I think there’s good value on Aiyuk here.

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk to lead the weekend in receiving yards (+950 at DraftKings)

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