No. 12 Oregon vs. Arizona isn’t exactly a prime-time matchup, and half of the country will likely miss it with a 9 p.m. ET kickoff. However, when these two meet in Tucson, it’s rarely a predictable affair. Despite being the favorite in nearly every matchup, the Ducks haven’t defeated the Wildcats in Arizona since 2011.
Oregon vs. Arizona Betting Preview
- Spread: Oregon (-13)
- Moneyline: Oregon (-475); Arizona (+380)
- Over/Under: 70.5 points
- Game time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
- Predicted weather at kick: 75 degrees, partly cloudy, 7-8 mph winds
After Georgia embarrassed Oregon in the season opener, the Ducks have rattled off four straight victories, scoring 40+ points in each. And while Arizona is 3-2 in a relatively weaker strength of schedule, they have been a bit of an offensive powerhouse as well, dropping 30+ in all but one game (17 vs. Mississippi State). Which unit will reign victorious Saturday night?
Prediction for Oregon vs. Arizona
Oregon’s offense relies on a balance between the run and pass, as QB Bo Nix has generated over 280 passing yards just once this year, and that came against FCS-level Eastern Washington in Week 2. Yet, he’s been a big part of the rushing attack, producing a team-leading five TDs and the second-most yards at 261.
The game plan won’t change, especially against a lowly Arizona defense that has allowed the third-most points (31.2) and total yards (400.8) per game in the conference. So, expect to see a steady dose of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington in the backfield as the Ducks’ front five overpowers the Wildcats.
Now, Arizona will still air it out against an underachieving Oregon defense. QB Jayden de Laura and Co. are one of the pass-happiest teams in the nation at a rate of over 60%. Thus far in 2022, de Laura has the edge on Nix at the position, thanks in part to an impressive receiving trio of Jacob Cowing, Dorian Singer, and Tetairoa McMillan.
Oregon opened as 11-point favorites, and it’s gone up to -13. But it’s important to note that the Ducks have failed to cover in their last five road games. As for the 70.5 total, the Over is 6-1-1 in Arizona’s last eight contests, and the Ducks are 4-0 in their last four. Understanding this is a Pac-12 game between two rolling offenses, I expect the Over to hit and Arizona to cover the spread with a non-zero chance of pulling out the major upset.
Prediction: Oregon 42, Arizona 31
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
The top values for all the meaningful players are available thanks to FanDuel.
- QB Bo Nix, Oregon: $11,500
- QB Jayden de Laura, Arizona: $10,200
- RB Michael Whiley, Arizona: $7,800
- RB Bucky Irving, Oregon: $7,500
- RB DJ Williams, Arizona: $5,500
- RB Noah Whittington, Oregon: $5,400
- WR Jacob Cowing, Arizona: $9,700
- WR Troy Franklin, Oregon: $8,000
- WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona: $7,800
- WR Dorian Singer, Arizona: $7,500
- WR Chase Cota, Oregon: $6,000
- WR Dont’e Thornton, Oregon: $5,400
- TE Terrance Furguson, Oregon: $6,100
- TE Tanner McLachlan, Arizona: $5,300
As mentioned above, the Ducks are going to run the ball, and they are going to do so effectively. Both Irving and Whittington will likely see 10+ carries and 60+ yards, but Nix has vultured their TDs the last three weeks.
Neither is a surefire bet to score a TD, and their passing usage has been practically nonexistent. Nevertheless, Irving is averaging a ridiculous 7.5 yards per carry, which may be his floor against this Arizona front seven.
The Oregon players you want in your DFS lineup are Nix for his aforementioned rushing upside and WR Troy Franklin, who has become the No. 1 option this year. On Arizona’s side, de Laura has thrown for 400+ yards in the last two weeks. If the OL can buy him time, which isn’t guaranteed against a formidable Oregon DL, he should be able to connect with Cowing and Singer multiple times.
However, if the OL folds and de Laura doesn’t find a rhythm in the pocket, we could see another three-interception performance as he had against Miss State in Week 2. His top two receivers will still get theirs, but I’d shy away from de Laura in this matchup. Instead, expose yourself to some Michael Wiley, the Wildcats’ lead back who has scored in each of the last four games.
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