One of the most heartbreaking moments of the 2023 NFL season was when Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb clutched his leg and suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The All-Pro RB needed two surgeries to repair his ACL, MCL, and meniscus.
Chubb resumed practicing last week, starting the three-week practice window for him to return to action. When healthy, Chubb has been one of the best running backs in fantasy football, so let’s explore whether you should try to buy or sell him prior to his return.
Should Fantasy Managers Buy or Sell Nick Chubb?
Chubb is expected to return at some point in the next few weeks, but there’s no guarantee he’ll resume his usual workload immediately.
It’s very possible that the Browns will gradually increase his usage over time, just to be cautious with the star running back.
#Browns Nick Chubb in individual drills on 1st day back: pic.twitter.com/wNbsqWEokA
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 2, 2024
When healthy, Chubb has been a consistent fantasy force, averaging between 15.9-17.3 fantasy points per game from 2019-2022. Even in limited action last season, he showed elite rushing ability with 6.1 yards per carry.
From 2020 to 2022, 42 running backs carried the rock at least 300 times. Chubb had as good of a case as any of them to be considered the top rusher over that stretch (minimum 300 carries), as he ranked first in yards per carry (5.3), second in rushing yards per game (89.6), and third in rushing touchdowns per game (0.7).
If Chubb can return to form and give you 15-17 fantasy points per game for even seven or eight games (including the fantasy playoffs), he’ll be a valuable piece.
However, here’s the pessimistic scenario: Chubb turns 29 years old in two months, so there’s a real chance that he can’t return to his All-Pro form. He might end up in a timeshare with Jerome Ford and there’s always the risk of him reaggravating his injury. While he possesses league-winning upside, the uncertainty around his recovery and return timeline make Chubb a risky fantasy asset.
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It’s possible that you won’t be able to insert Chubb into your starting lineup until the fantasy playoffs, so how to approach him as a trade asset really comes down to the state of your team.
If your fantasy team needs help immediately, it might make sense to trade Chubb to a contender while there’s positive news about him practicing and nearing a return.
Similarly, if you’re off to a good start and looking for a stash to help you in the fantasy playoffs, Chubb is an intriguing trade target. It’s possible the fantasy manager who drafted Chubb is frustrated since he didn’t play in Week 5 and doesn’t have an exact timeline to return, particularly if their fantasy team has struggled early in the season. It can’t hurt to send out a few offers to see if you can buy Chubb at a discount.
Also, if you have Ford, now is the time to sell him. He’s currently the RB23 in PPR leagues, and his value will plummet once Chubb returns to the lineup. If you can swap him out for a player with a more secure role whose success is more sustainable, I would recommend doing that as soon as possible.