NFL Wild Card Round Player Prop Bets for Saturday’s Games: Picks Include C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Isiah Pacheco, and Others

Our top NFL Wild Card Round player prop bets for today's games include picks for C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Isiah Pacheco, and others.

With two playoff games today, our betting team has made a variety of player prop bets for both contests.

Which players should you be backing in the first game of the day between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans? How should you be betting player props for the night game, where the weather is going to be a huge factor?

We break it all down in our top NFL Wild Card Round player prop bets for today’s games.

NFL Wild Card Round Player Prop Bets: Saturday Games

Joe Flacco Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115 at ESPN BET)

Ben Rolfe: Here are Flacco’s passing yards in his last four games: 309, 368, 374, 311.

Included in that is 368 yards at an average of 8.8 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 96.1.

The Texans have been good against opposing QBs in the last two weeks, but they’ve had their troubles against some good passing games and some surprising ones.

This season, the Texans have allowed over 300 passing yards to the Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow), New Orleans Saints (Derek Carr), and Atlanta Falcons (Desmond Ridder).

Flacco has every chance of doing that again this week to a team allowing an average of 253.4 passing yards per game to opponents.

Kareem Hunt Under 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Kyle Soppe: Fading both backfields (or at least a piece of both) is something I rarely do because they aren’t correlated. That said, “rarely” isn’t “never,” and the numbers point strongly in this direction.

The Browns haven’t been shy about betting on Flacco to elevate their 2023 ceiling, as they have the second-highest pass rate over expectation since the veteran took the reins.

In a matchup against the second-best yards-per-carry defense in a weatherproof spot at NRG Stadium, why wouldn’t we expect Cleveland to open things up in this spot?

Kareem Hunt (battling a groin injury that cost him practice time early in the week) doesn’t have a 10-yard rush since Nov. 19. Cleveland running backs as a whole have lost yardage on 13.1% of carries.

The veteran RB hasn’t had more than 12 carries in a game in over two months, a trend he might have to reverse in this matchup.

One for the road when it comes to Hunt:

  • Hunt: 23.7% of carries have come in the red zone
  • Jerome Ford: 7.8% of carries have come in the red zone

Those carries hold fantasy football value, but they aren’t a major concern for me when targeting yardage props.

C.J. Stroud Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Brian Blewis: This line is incredibly low because of the matchup against an elite Browns defense. But this defense didn’t travel well this season, as they allowed 29.6 points per game on the road, tied with the Broncos for the most in the NFL.

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Meanwhile, this Browns defense is facing a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who has excelled at home. In eight home starts, Stroud threw for 310.8 yards per game, 17 TDs, and averaged 8.94 yards per attempt.

Stroud only went under this prop in two home games this past season — Week 6 against the Saints and a 26-3 blowout win over the Titans. Considering the value we’re getting because of the matchup, all of the trends say this is an overcorrection.

Devin Singletary Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: For the season, only 39% of yards gained against the Browns have come on the ground, the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL this season. Devin Singletary has taken over Houston’s backfield from Dameon Pierce, but are we sure he’s matchup-proof to the level that sportsbooks are giving him credit for?

This season, Singletary doesn’t have a carry of at least 25 yards, making a single splash play unlikely to undo this bet.

My faith in the Browns’ front four has me thinking they’re making contact with Singletary around the line of scrimmage. With the Texans’ lead back averaging just 1.6 yards per carry after contact — a rate that ranks behind luminaries like Miles Sanders and Joshua Kelley — efficiency is something that I’m more than happy to bet against.

Dalton Schultz Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Dalton Schultz has gone over this yardage line in three of his four last games, but this seems like the right opportunity to sell.

Schultz is going up against a Browns defense that was by far the best at defending opposing tight ends this season — allowing six fewer targets and 162 fewer yards than the next-best team.

When these two teams last played each other back in Week 16 (with Davis Mills at QB), Schultz had eight catches for 61 yards. Considering his 11 targets were tied for a season-high total and more than the previous three weeks combined when Stroud was active, this performance seems like a total anomaly.

Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Considering their injuries on offense, the matchup against a great Chiefs defense, and the cold temperatures and high winds we’re expecting, this sets up as an easy matchup to fade Tua Tagovailoa. But his passing yards and passing touchdown props are very marked down and present little value in taking the under. So let’s go in a different direction.

In four games against playoff teams away from Miami this season, Tua didn’t have a completion for 35 or more yards on a combined 91 pass attempts. When these teams met in Germany earlier this season, Tua had only one completion for greater than 20 yards on 34 attempts. I’m not expecting it to go much differently this time around.

Isiah Pacheco Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Soppe: In the regular season, Miami ranked fourth in pressure rate but also missed the sixth-most tackles. To me, that shouts dump-off passes.

Could Kansas City opt to go with a run-heavy approach a la Buffalo in its December dismantling of Dallas? It could happen, but we know Andy Reid wants his quarterback to hold the team’s fate in his hands, so I’m tempted to project plenty of dropbacks for Patrick Mahomes in this spot.

Assuming that is the case, Pacheco’s development as a receiving threat out of the backfield figures to jump off the screen.

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He has caught at least three passes in all three of his games against top-10 pressure defenses this season — those little check-down passes have connected in similar matchups, and if you’re telling me I get Pacheco’s running style in space with a 3+ reception projection, I’m thrilled with this leg of the SGP.

Mahomes’ aDOT dipped by 14.6% last postseason from the regular season, further proof that where Pacheco lives in the passing game could be featured in a significant way against Miami.

Rashee Rice Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110 ESPN BET)

Ben Rolfe: The Dolphins have been allowing an average of 177.25 yards to opposing WRs in the past four weeks. Last week, they allowed the combination of Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir to amass 192 receiving yards as the two WRs regularly found themselves in space.

The Dolphins’ pass rush struggled for consistency throughout the game, which meant Josh Allen was able to get the ball to his receivers down the field.

The main WR on show for the Chiefs is Rashee Rice. Sure, they will use others throughout the game, but Rice has become their main weapon of choice. He sat out last week but now appears to be healthy after practicing in full to open the week.

Rice has topped 64 receiving yards in three of his last four games and four of his last six.

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