NFL Week 5
Photo Credit: USA Today

NFL Week 5 disappointments

Jameis Winston: 18.29

If OSM is the only metric that you look at, Jameis Winston might be the best quarterback in the NFL. He had the second-highest overall grade for a quarterback in 2018, and through the first four weeks of this season, he had the highest grade among all quarterbacks. After an awful Week 1, he received grades of 34.74, 52.0, and 41.19. But this week, in a key divisional matchup against the Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints, he regressed significantly.

Winston had an overall grade of 18.29. It wasn’t the worst grade of any quarterback, it just barely cracked the bottom ten, but compared to his normal performances it represents a massive drop-off. A number of factors led to Winston’s uncharacteristically poor performance. His 55.6% completion percentage was the second-lowest of any quarterback so far this week. Not only that, it was actually 5.7% lower than expected, based on the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That was the fifth-worst differential among the quarterbacks that have played so far in Week 5. When you combine those poor statistics with -1.8 air yards differential between his intended and completed air yards, tied for ninth-worst among qualifying quarterbacks, you get a truly terrible performance.

I know a lot of people won’t be disappointed by Winston’s play because they didn’t have high expectations for him in the first place. Even though he didn’t throw any interceptions this week, performing poorly in critical situations is exactly what they expect him to do.F But, after having worked with the OSM metric now for close to a year, I have come to expect more from the Buccaneers quarterback.