Just when you think you have the NFL figured out, the league surprises you again. Week 4 of the 2024 season offered plenty of shocking results, astounding upsets, and highlight-reel plays.
Who looked the best during today’s games, and who’s already looking ahead to Week 5? Let’s take a step back and assess whose stock is up and whose is down after Week 4.
Stock Up | Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 4-0, an incredibly impressible accomplishment for a club whose preseason win total was regularly listed at 6.5. Sunday’s victory was a strange one. While it started like last week’s blowout over the Houston Texans, Week 4 eventually forced Sam Darnold and Co. to hang on for a win over the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers.
Minnesota scored on four of its five drives to take a commanding 28-0 lead. They were still up by three scores at halftime and when they punted to Green Bay with 41 seconds remaining in the third quarter.
We're learning things about ourselves every single week.#Skol pic.twitter.com/8BGmwUxA9S
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 30, 2024
The Vikings’ fourth quarter was an unmitigated disaster. Darnold was strip-sacked on Minnesota’s first drive of the quarter. While he led a field-goal drive when the Vikings got the ball back, Darnold’s offense punted and turned the ball over on downs on each of its next two series.
Meanwhile, the Packers scored touchdowns on three of their final five drives, including their game-closing five-play, 95-yard TD drive. Minnesota’s defense held on for a 31-29 victory, but this was the closest game the Vikings have played this season.
Darnold continued to outproduce his one-year, $10 million contract, completing 20 of 28 attempts for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. The Jets’ defense in Week 5 will be Darnold’s stiffest defensive opponent yet, but Minnesota has outperformed every expectation thus far.
Stock Up | Washington Commanders
Should we just give Jayden Daniels the Offensive Rookie of the Year trophy now?
The No. 2 overall pick has been the NFL’s second-best quarterback behind Josh Allen over the past two weeks. Daniels completed 88.7% of his passes in Weeks 3 and 4, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt while achieving 0.52 EPA per dropback. For reference, Brock Purdy led the league at 0.34 in 2023.
On Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals tried to fool Daniels by dropping eight defenders into coverage on 36.1% of his dropbacks. That was the highest drop-eight rate for any defense in a single game this season. Daniels went 9-of-11 for 85 yards and 0.28 EPA per dropback on those throws.
Most importantly, the upstart Commanders are now 3-1 and leading the NFC East. This isn’t a situation where Washington is underperforming its metrics or has simply gotten lucky en route to three straight wins — their +19 point differential is ninth-best in the NFL and backs up Daniels and Co.’s early-season performance.
Stock Down | Jacksonville Jaguars
You can’t really say, “This is as low as it can get,” about a team that employed Urban Meyer as its head coach within the past three years. But the Jaguars became the first NFL team to fall to 0-4 by losing to the Texans on Sunday — and Doug Pederson is undoubtedly on the hot seat.
This wasn’t an embarrassing defeat like last week’s 47-10 blowout by the Buffalo Bills. Jacksonville didn’t commit its usually back-breaking mistakes. Lawrence didn’t throw any picks and took just one sack; he fumbled once, but the Jags recovered.
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However, Jacksonville let Texans QB C.J. Stroud average 8.6 yards per attempt and take Houston on a game-winning drive at the end of the fourth quarter. He went 5-of-5 for 44 yards on the drive, including a game-winning one-yard TD pass to fourth-string RB Dare Ogunbowale with 18 seconds remaining.
Whether or not Pederson is still the Jaguars’ head coach on Monday morning is an open question.
Stock Up | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Holding the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense to 16 points Sunday was impressive, but the Buccaneers can hardly gloat after stifling a Jalen Hurts-led attack that was missing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
However, Philadelphia’s defense had all its key pieces in place, and Baker Mayfield and Co. still had a field day.
Mayfield completed 30 of 47 attempts for 347 yards and two touchdowns while taking only two sacks. His 74.6 QB was tied with the Texans’ C.J. Stroud’s for No. 1 in the NFL in Week 4. Mayfield spread the ball around, hitting eight different Bucs receivers for at least one catch. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton hauled in six receptions each.
Time for @TomBrady's #LFG Player of the Game Award 🏆
Congrats to @Buccaneers QB @bakermayfield for his performance vs the Eagles! pic.twitter.com/ZmaiSoTsDg
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 29, 2024
Mayfield was particularly impressive on throws off of play-action. He completed 10 of 11 attempts for 133 when using a run fake on Sunday; his 12.1 yards per attempt on those throws ranked fifth on Sunday.
After a disastrous loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, the 3-1 Buccaneers are back on top of the NFC South.
Stock Down | New York Jets
Teams that allowed 10 points or fewer in a game since 2020 were 292-12 entering Sunday’s action — before the Jets became the 13th loss in a stunning defeat to the Broncos.
This was the type of game New York lost when Zach Wilson was under center. Gang Green’s defense wasn’t supposed to be let down by its offense with Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback.
Rodgers looked like his vintage self in the Jets’ Week 3 over the New England Patriots, but Week 4 was a disappointment. New York never found the end zone, instead settling for three field goals. The Jets were lining up to attempt a 4th-and-goal from Denver’s one-yard line at the start of the second quarter, but a false start forced Robert Saleh to change his mind.
By EPA per dropback, Bo Nix’s performance was the second-worst by a QB in a win over the past decade. The first-round rookie completed 12 of his 25 attempts for just 60 — yes, 60! — yards. Nix’s 2.4 yards per attempt was tied for the 10th-lowest by any quarterback in a single game since 2015.
New York (2-2) shouldn’t have lost this week.
Stock Up | Cincinnati Bengals
A season-saving win? The Bengals got their first victory of the season on Sunday, averting an 0-4 start by taking down the Carolina Panthers in a 34-24 victory.
Joe Burrow picked up where he left off in Week 3, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and tossing two touchdowns. After a game-opening punt, Cincinnati’s offense scored on four straight possessions. They slowed down after that, managing only two field goals over their final five drives while hanging on for a win.
Starting 1-3 isn’t ideal, but it’s not a death sentence. Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, four of 36 teams that began a season 1-3 made the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, all three of those turnarounds came in 2021 after the league added an extra regular-season game and an additional Wild Card slot.
The Bengals get the division rival Baltimore Ravens in Week 5 before traveling to face the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns in Weeks 6 and 7.
Stock Down | Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, the Chiefs took down the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4 to stay undefeated.
But star wideout Rashee Rice suffered what is feared to be a torn ACL on Sunday. Head coach Andy Reid said Rice will undergo an MRI on Monday but admitted that Kansas City expects bad news on its leading receiver.
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Kansas City’s underneath passing strategy has benefitted Rice, who entered Week 4 leading the league with 23 receptions and 3.39 yards per route run. While he’s only averaged 5.21 air yards per route, Rice had made up for his lack of depth by averaging 7.8 yards after the catch, fourth-best among wideouts.
The Chiefs already lost RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown to injuries. Will K.C. have to find another receiver for Patrick Mahomes at the NFL trade deadline?