Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 17 games.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 17
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems. Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Daniel Bellinger Higher Than 10.5 Receiving Yards
This is an awfully low yardage projection for a guy who has been getting pretty significant burn for the New York Giants. Even with Darren Waller back, Daniel Bellinger is still playing 60% of the snaps. He’s run between 15 and 19 routes over his last four games and gone over this number in six of his last seven.
The Rams allow the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Tyrod Taylor provides a significant upgrade at quarterback over Tommy DeVito. Bellinger should be able to clear this easily.
Tyrod Taylor Higher Than 23.5 Rushing Yards
The Giants are probably going to be trailing for much of this game. Negative game script means lots of dropbacks for Tyrod Taylor. Dropbacks provide opportunities for scrambles.
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Taylor ran for 21 yards last week despite only playing one half of football. In his three starts prior to getting hurt, Taylor amassed 24, 25, and 33 rushing yards. Simply put, this projection is too low.
Jalen Hurts Lower Than 44.5 Rushing Yards
This one isn’t overly complicated. This isn’t about any special matchup or projected game flow. This is just a rushing projection that is way too high.
Jalen Hurts has not been running as much as in previous years. The majority of his carries come from brotherly shoves.
On the entire season, Hurts has only reached 45 rushing yards four times. In a game where the Eagles should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground, there are likely to be fewer opportunities for Hurts to scramble. Combine that with the reduced designed runs, and I don’t see how Hurts gets to 45 yards on the ground.
Chris Olave Higher Than 65.5 Rush+Receiving Yards
It’s not my usual move to take highers on star players. I just feel like Chris Olave isn’t being treated like he’s a star player.
The New Orleans Saints WR1 has totaled at least 94 receiving yards in four of his last five games. This week, he gets a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is allowing 194 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the most in the league. 68.3% of their total receiving yards allowed go to WRs.
With the Bucs solid against the run but terrible against the pass and Olave the clear top target, Derek Carr should look his way early and often once again.
Adam Thielen Higher Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
It’s just too low! I know Adam Thielen has really cooled off since his scorching start. But he’s still the Carolina Panthers WR1. Bryce Young has been playing better and has taken Thielen back up a couple of notches with him.
Last week, caught six passes for 94 yards. He’s gone over this number in three straight.
Even without Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars should score enough to force the Panthers to throw the ball. 43 is a low bar.
Calvin Ridley Lower Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
Fair warning. I have gotten Calvin Ridley pick’ems wrong all season. But this is the week we change our fortune. Ridley is coming off one of his best games of the season, catching six passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He also did it against the aforementioned Bucs defense that can’t stop wide receivers.
This week, Ridley gets a Panthers defense allowing just 125 yards per game to wide receivers, the fourth fewest in the league.
Additionally, while this isn’t necessarily an actionable trend, Ridley has only put together consecutive quality performances twice all season. He’s gotten to 60+ receiving yards six times this season. He’s failed to reach 60 yards in the following week’s game four times. Here’s to hoping he makes it five this week.
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