Week 13 was another week of profit for us in this column, going 3-2 on picks, including a two-unit win on the Buccaneers team over. After a shaky middle stretch to the season, we are now closing well down the stretch and can hopefully maintain this momentum over the final four weeks of the regular season. Before we dive into the selections for the NFL Week 14 totals, let’s take a look at the lessons from last week.
Week 13 lessons
Despite the profit, the losses still hurt, and this week maybe more than ever. The Detroit Lions hitting the over on their team total is infuriating. If it was not for a massive breakdown in communication in the Chicago Bears secondary, we might have landed that one. The Lions ended up at 20 points, with seven of them laid on a plate thanks to Kenny Golladay’s early long touchdown. These types of moments are hard to account for, but there is a lesson in not taking totals this low as they can often go over on one mad moment in the game.
The other loss was the New York Jets in Cincinnati. No loss will baffle me more this season than a Jets offense coming off the back of three-straight 34 point games failing to score a single touchdown, let alone 23 points. The lesson here is that trusting Adam Gase will most likely lead to heartbreak. However, with a juicy matchup against the Dolphins defense in New York, they might be tempting again this week.
Now let’s end on the positive, the victories. I started to worry about the Green Bay Packers line when I saw the weather. However, you can nearly always rely on the New York Giants to be incompetent, so we hit the over comfortably. The Buccaneers had hit their over by half time, and thankfully they did because they then went to sleep in the second half. However, that was in large part because they already had 25 points and the game in the bag at halftime.
The final win came in the Steelers and Browns game, which for a moment looked like it might explode into points around the half, but fizzled out nicely in the second half. The under is going to be a regular consideration in Pittsburgh games down the stretch.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Week 14 totals and picks
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
How is this for a weird statistic: the Atlanta Falcons have scored 24 points or less in every home game this season. Meanwhile, they have scored over 24 in their last four road games. That is just a bit strange. However, I do not really see that trend changing this week. The Panthers were shredded by the run game last week, and the Falcons run game is awful. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan was sacked nine times last week and is in the top-five in the league in QB hits. The Falcons scored 29 points in Carolina, largely thanks to Kyle Allen falling apart in a big way. The Panthers just lost their head coach, and with a new regime hanging over their futures, I think we see a massive response from them this week.
1u – Atlanta Falcons Under 24.5 Total Points | -120
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
This is a fascinating number for me because the Packers smoked the Giants last week in the snow, and it has boosted the number. However, while the Redskins are not good, their defense is actually solid. Since Week 6, they have allowed opponents to score over 25 points just once. They also ran the ball well last week and should be able to move the ball on this Green Bay defense, who prioritize pass prevention over stopping the run. Last week the Packers took advantage of the Giants not protecting Daniel Jones from himself enough. This week I expect to see the Redskins keeping the ball on the ground and minimizing what Dwayne Haskins is required to do. This could be one of those games where Packers fans are tearing their hair out that their team has not put away the Redskins entering the latter part of the game.
1u – Green Bay Packers Under 27.5 Total Points | -125
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
This line is insultingly low for a Lions team who moved the ball semi-effectively at times on a solid Bears defense. The Vikings defense is not in the same league as the Bears, and the Lions should be able to get to around 17 points at least. This game could also be a let-down game for the Vikings as they head home after a crushing loss in Seattle. With Green Bay and Chicago on the schedule as well as a trip to Los Angeles, this might be a game the Vikings overlook somewhat. The Lions have only failed to score 14 or more points twice this season, and one of those was on the road in Chicago. David Blough was good enough last week, and the run game was also solid, giving me faith the Lions won’t be a complete dud in this game.
1u – Detroit Lions Over 13.5 Total Points | -138
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
The Tennessee Titans offense has found a completely new gear in their last three games. In those games, they have totaled 108 points for an average of 36 per game. Now they face a Raiders team which has allowed 74 points combined in their last two games. The stats get better for the Titans when you consider the Raiders have allowed less than 24 points on just three occasions this season. Those offenses they have succeeded against? The Broncos, Bears, and Bengals. Hardly a murderers row of offensive opponents. The Titans are riding high right now, and Ryan Tannehill has this team believing with five wins in their last six since he took over.
1u – Tennessee Titans Over 23.5 Total Points | -138
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
This game is going to be a lot of fun! The last four meetings between these teams have seen a total of 239 points scored, at an average of 59.75 points per game. If we narrow that to the last three, the average jumps up over the 60-point mark. These two defenses are middle of the road for the most part, and both offenses should be able to move the ball. Rams home games tend to be higher scoring than others at this time of year thanks to the wonderfully warm Los Angeles weather conditions. This may not be the exciting playoff deciding game we wanted it to be, but it should be a lot of fun to watch all the same.
1u – Over 48 Total Points | -125
Ben Rolfe is an NFL picks writer and editor at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and all of our writers NFL Week 11 picks, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.