Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs. It’s all led up to this moment. From the preseason prep, drafting the right players, working the waiver wire during those pesky bye weeks, and taking down your rivals. It has all led to these final three weeks of win or go home football. Every decision you make will be critical as the margins are reduced as the talent of the competition gets better and better each step you take. Let me help you get an edge on your opponent this week as I breakdown the Week 14 fantasy weather forecast in the NFL.
Last week was brutal, easily being the worst forecast we had seen all year thanks to a winter storm that moved across the country, bringing strong winds, snow, and rain to the east coast. Luckily for us, this week is a welcome reprieve from the wintery conditions of Week 13, as there aren’t too many concerns overall. There are a couple of games that are worth keeping an eye on, however, that I will break down and see if you need to be concerned for your fantasy players.
Before we break down the Week 14 weather forecast, here’s a reminder that if you have any questions regarding fantasy football, check out our recent articles from our talented staff here at PFN. We have you covered from PPR & Standard rankings, waiver-wire additions, start/sit recommendations, daily dynasty content, podcasts, and much more to help you make the most of this fantasy season.
Game Impacting Winds
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM)
Orchard Park looks to have the strongest winds of the week when looking ahead at the forecast. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be around all game with gusts above 30 mph. Forecasted temps in the mid to low 40s are going to be pushed into the low 30s making for a chilly day of football. While there will be cloudy skies, there is no threat of precipitation for this game, making the wind the only factor to watch.
While these winds are well above the threshold where we start to see it affecting the play on the field, both these teams feature mobile quarterbacks with strong arms that will help counteract the conditions. We might see a few balls sail or come up short depending on the direction of the wind, but I am not overly worried given these teams’ playstyles. You are starting your studs here no matter what. I will knock down both Justin Tucker and Stephen Hauschka a bit in my rankings for the week due to the wind.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (1:00 PM)
While not as strong as the wind in Buffalo, I still expect to see winds between 15 to 25 mph in Cleveland for this game. These won’t have a significant impact overall but will have a slight reduction in the overall passing and kicking success of both teams. Temperatures in the low 50s will not drop low enough to matter.
I fully expect the Browns to have a fantastic day on the ground this week. All the factors are there for a massive day for Nick Chubb and also Kareem Hunt. The combination of the Bengals having the worst rushing defense in the NFL along with both Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry banged up means they will lean on their talented duo to get an AFC North divisional win. Chubb is a locked-in RB1 for me, and Hunt is a reliable RB2 option, especially in PPR leagues.
Slight chance of rain
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (4:25 PM)
As of right now, the forecast shows some rain moving into the area early in the day and should dissipate as we get closer to kickoff. It looks like it will be over prior to the start of the game. There is still the chance we see some early in the game, but I am not concerned about the strength of it, and it shouldn’t be more than a drizzle that will end quickly. Other than that, 51-degree temperatures and eight mph winds won’t have any impact on the game.
Looking around the league, the matchup of the Titans’ offense versus the Raiders’ defense is one of the most significant disparities in terms of DVOA for the week, only ranking behind the Minnesota Vikings offense against the Detroit Lions defense per Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Oakland ranks 26th in DVOA against the rush, making for a fantastic matchup for Derrick Henry to have a potential top-5 finish in Week 14.
Chance of heavy rain
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (8:15 PM Monday)
Usually, I always list the worst forecasted weather first. However, due to this game being played on Monday, there is plenty of time for the weather to change. As we get closer, I will be posting updates on my Twitter account (@TommyGarrettPFN) and will also update this article if there are any changes leading to kickoff. The downside of this situation is the timing because you will need to make decisions on Sunday if you want to make any changes due to the forecast.
As of right now, this weather looks to be a copy of what we saw in Baltimore last week, just a bit warmer. I am expecting to see rain starting before noon and continue all day, dropping upwards of 3/4 of an inch of rain. This trend will continue and will likely see an additional 1/2 inch overnight. Add this to the 15 to 20 mph winds, and we could see some pretty miserable conditions on Monday night.
I have to say I am much more worried about the Giants’ offense in this game. Not only in adverse weather, but also we see the return of Eli Manning under center. How he will look is simply a guess at this point. I expect to see a healthy dose of Saquon Barkley as they will try to limit costly mistakes and implement a more conservative approach. Add in Eli’s willingness to consistently dump the ball off to Barkley that Manning has always shown, and he could have a solid day so long as they Giants can maintain possession.
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (1:00 PM)
After missing four games due to injury, Davante Adams looks to keep his hot streak going against an embattled Redskins passing defense. Since returning, Adams has been a stud with at least seven catches in four straight games and three touchdowns in his last two contests combined. Lock him in as a top 5 play every week. The 40-degree temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and 12 mph winds won’t have much impact on this game.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (1:00 PM)
Remember when we all were making fun of the Dolphins and them tanking for Tua? Don’t look now Jets fans because if the Dolphins win this game, not only will they have the season sweep against their former head coach but also will share the same record at 4-9 on the season. Be sure to keep an eye on the status of Le’Veon Bell on leading up to this game. Bell didn’t practice Thursday or Friday, and head coach Adam Gase has stated he is “unsure” if the running back will be available. If not, look for a backfield split between Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery to split the duties. The 43-degree temperatures, partly sunny skies, and four mph winds give us a clear forecast for the game.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 PM)
All signs point to the return of Marlon Mack in Week 14 from surgery to repair a broken hand. However, don’t be so quick to feel confident in starting him this week. After Friday’s practice, head coach Frank Reich had this to say in regards to Mack’s status:
“As far as playing time workload for Mack, don’t expect a crazy amount of touches for him, although he will still be the feature back. “Not thinking a big pitch count,” Reich said of Mack’s role on Sunday. “Even when he’s humming, we don’t hesitate to rotate those guys.”
Does that sound like someone you want to rest your fantasy team’s fate on? I don’t. The matchup is pretty bad too. The Buccaneers have the best rush defense in the league, and I expect the Colts to try to exploit them through the air, something that Mack has little to no involvement with. Adding all this up, along with the Colts desire to use multiple running backs, makes me want to steer away from Mack if I don’t have a better option. He is a mid-tier flex play for me in Week 14. As for the weather, the 80-degree temperatures, sunshine, and six mph winds make for another beautiful forecast in the Sunshine State.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (4:05 PM)
Hopefully, you didn’t shave after No-Shave-November ended because mustaches are back in style with the return of MinshewMania. In doing this, the Jaguars just gave themselves an $88 million controversy they sill need to figure out in the offseason. I will urge you to temper your expectations as the Chargers are no pushover, especially since they just got safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips back from IR. The 72-degree temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and eight mph winds do make for perfect mustache wearing weather, though.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (4:25 PM)
Do you have two functional legs? Heck, do you have one really strong leg? I ask because that’s more than the Patriots have as they currently don’t even have a kicker on their roster at the time of writing this, although there is speculation they will bring back Nick Folk. Maybe they will go for two-point attempts and fourth down conversions all day, and the analytic world will praise Bill Belichick for being a forward thinker.
You and I both know this wouldn’t be a surprise from either side. In all seriousness, I do expect this to be a fantastic game against two of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Also, don’t be surprised if James White has another great game this week. It’s December, but the 58-degree temperatures, cloudy skies, and eight mph winds won’t be an issue for your fantasy football teams.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (8:20 PM)
Has Rashaad Penny finally turned the corner? Coming off the best two week stretch of his career where he has racked up 236 total yards on 33 touches along with 3 touchdowns, it’s hard not to wonder. If Penny can close the season off with a great final stretch, he will be one of the most discussed fantasy football players in the offseason. For now, he is the second option on one of the best rushing offenses in the league. I have him ranked in Week 14 as a player worth Flex consideration. The 57-degree temperatures, cloudy skies, and eight mph winds make for a worry-free night of football to end the day.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 PM)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 PM)
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (1:00 PM)
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (1:00 PM)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (4:25 PM)
Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 and @PFNFantasy to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2019 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our Fantasy Football section for more coverage and our weekly rankings for both standard and PPR scoring.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.