Week 13 of the NFL delivered a wild slate of games, headlined by the Carolina Panthers’ upset over the Los Angeles Rams, the Chicago Bears’ surprise Black Friday win against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Cincinnati Bengals’ shock Thanksgiving victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Those unexpected results, along with a handful of other twists, caused major shifts in several teams’ postseason outlooks. With the playoff race tightening, let’s take a look at the biggest surprises that reshaped the NFL playoff scenarios after Week 13.
Which Are the Teams Whose Playoff Outlook Took a Hit
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving dropped them to 6–6 and pushed them onto a difficult path to the postseason. According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, their playoff odds fell by 22.7%, down to 21.7%, meaning Kansas City will likely need to win at least four of its final five games to have a chance at a Wild Card berth.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s five-game winning streak ended in an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as five turnovers doomed the Ravens. Their playoff chances took a 19.4% hit, dropping to 41.1%. Baltimore’s Week 14 matchup against Pittsburgh now looms as a pivotal moment in the AFC North race.
Detroit Lions
The Lions fell to the Packers on Thanksgiving, slipping to 7–5 on the season. Their playoff odds suffered the most dramatic drop of any team in Week 13, down 28.8% to 35%. Detroit now travels to face Dallas on Thursday Night Football, and another loss would be disastrous, pushing their postseason odds to just 17.4%.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were stunned by Bryce Young and the Panthers on Sunday, dropping to 9–3. While still firmly in playoff position, their chances of winning the NFC West fell by 20.6%, as Seattle remains level at 9–3. The Rams’ odds of securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed also dipped by 16.2%.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia’s playoff chances remain strong despite its Black Friday upset loss to Chicago. However, their push for the NFC’s top seed took a significant blow, falling by 11%. The race at the top is now wide open between the Eagles, Bears, Rams, and 49ers.
Teams Whose Playoff Outlook Improved
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud made his return to the Houston Texans’ starting lineup this week, and the result was the same as their previous three games: a victory. The Texans marched into Indianapolis to beat the Colts 20-16, improving to 7-5 and winning their fourth straight game. Their playoff odds jumped 16.9%, reaching 64.1%, a remarkable turnaround for a team that opened the season 0–3.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 13 was a good one for the Jaguars, as their win over the Titans and the Colts’ loss to Houston propelled them into first place in the AFC South. Their playoff chances improved by 10%, climbing to 82.1%.
Teams Who Are out of Playoffs Race Heading Into Week 14
The New York Giants, who lost to the Patriots on Monday Night Football, were the first team to get knocked out of the playoffs after falling 2-10 in Week 12. They were joined in Week 13 by the 1–11 Titans, 2–10 Raiders, 2–10 Saints, and 3–9 Cardinals, marking the fewest number of teams still in contention entering the final five weeks since at least the 2002 season.
Several more teams could join that group depending on Week 14 results:
- Atlanta Falcons: Eliminated with a loss to Seattle, or if the game ends in a tie and both the Buccaneers (vs. Saints) and Packers (vs. Bears) win or tie.
- Cleveland Browns: Eliminated with a loss to the Titans.
- Minnesota Vikings: Eliminated with a loss to the Commanders.
- New York Jets: Eliminated if they lose or tie their Week 14 matchup.
- Washington Commanders: Also eliminated with a loss or tie in their Week 14 game.