It took ten weeks, but we finally saw some winter weather make its first appearance in Green Bay. Although the flurries persisted for the majority of the game, the impact they had was negligible as both teams stuck to their standard script. In reality, this is pretty much the norm for football as it takes extremes to have any real impact on a game. As for fantasy football owners, Week 11’s weather forecast doesn’t have too many concerns for me. There are a few games which we need to look closer to as well as a location that might have the most significant impact of the entire slate of games.
Before we break down the Week 11 weather forecast, here’s a reminder that if you have any questions regarding fantasy football to check out our recent articles from our talented staff here at PFN. We have you covered from PPR & Standard rankings, notable additions including an in-house mock draft, start/sit recommendations, podcasts, and much more to help you make the most of this fantasy season.
Note: All times are Eastern Standard.
Mid-Atlantic gets cold, wet, and windy
New York Jet at Washington Redskins -2 (1:00 PM) – 38.5 o/u
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (1:00 PM) – 51.5 o/u
New England Patriots -4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 PM) – 45 o/u
If you have followed along with these articles all season, I break games down individually, but these games have such similar weather forecasts that going over them all at once just made sense.
A coastal storm will bring wet and windy conditions to parts of the East Coast beginning this weekend, bringing rain into the weekend as well as a chance for more on Sunday. Strong high-pressure winds from Canada will settle in across the Northeast at the same time a low-pressure system forms off the Southeast coast. The contrast between the high- and low-pressure systems will drive persistent strong winds near the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast.
All games in this area will see between 15-20 mph winds, which are at the start of the threshold where they begin to have an impact. On their own, the wind would be a slight factor but add in the 40-degree temperatures at their highs, and I would expect to see a subtle decline in offensive production and aggressiveness. I’m talking only a 5-10% reduction; at the end of the day, your star fantasy football players should still be in lineups in Week 11. Nothing this week is fade worthy.
The New York Jets vs. Washington Redskins game gives us our lowest point total of the week and for a good reason. The Redskins announced they are turning to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for the rest of the season. Given what we have seen so far, that’s not an excellent sign for wide receivers like Terry McLaurin. Between inconsistencies and a lack of significant snaps, I have a hard time recommending them as startable options. One player I will be playing close attention to is Derrius Guice, as he makes his return to the NFL following his injuries.
One of the best games of the week has two of the MVP front-runners squaring off in Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens are top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Still, Watson is talented enough and has a safe floor in any matchup, especially given his ability to contribute in the run game. Jackson gets the better matchup of the two. The Houston Texans rank in the bottom-five in passing yards allowed per game. Although they are one of the best in rushing yards allowed, he is a freak athlete and can only be contained for so long before breaking off a long run.
Of the games noted in the overview, Philadelphia looks to have the chance of the worst weather of them as it has the highest probability of precipitation. For the New England Patriots, I’m not concerned. They have shown the ability to play in any weather and adapt as well as anyone. Who is going to be the focus player for them is much harder to predict. I do like their running backs, especially Sony Michel, if they choose to run more assuming the weather is sloppy.
Potential Wind Concern
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -4.5 (1:00 PM) – 49 o/u
As with the previously mentioned games, the Carolinas and eastern seaboard will be impacted by a coastal storm bringing 15-20 mph winds with it. The only difference here is the temperature. The 55-degree highs make this a much more tolerable weather forecast and should not have too much impact other than kicks and the deep ball depending on if it is into the wind or not.
The larger question is, who is even going to play for the Atlanta Falcons? While quarterback Matt Ryan has shed his injury designation, the rest of the offense is a mix match of backups at skill positions. With Ito Smith already on IR, Devonta Freeman has been ruled out of the game as well, leaving the starting duties to Brian Hill, this past week’s hot waiver wire pickup.
Joining Freeman is tight end, Austin Hooper. Hooper’s MCL sprain makes a shallow tight end pool even worse, given his four-game diagnosis. Hooper ranks as the number one TE in both standard and PPR formats, making him one of the best values in all of fantasy football given his ADP. There is no proper backup option for the Falcons, and the best owners can hope for is that the targets go to both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to carry the offense. If you have an IR spot or bench space, hold on to Hooper. It will be worth watching if the Falcons are losing games and basically out of the playoff race, they may choose to place him on IR and sit him for the rest of the season.
Location, Location, Location
Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday 8:15 PM in Mexico) – 52 o/u
It’s not the weather forecast that concerns me here. The 70-degree temperatures and light winds are nothing. It’s the altitude. Sitting at an altitude of 7,200 feet above sea-level, Estadio Azteca is roughly 2,000 feet higher than Mile High Stadium in Denver, Co. At sea-level, there is an effective oxygen rate of 20.9%. At 7,200 feet above sea-level, the number drops to 15.8% effective oxygen, a reduction of nearly 25% of the useable oxygen when at altitude.
For example, if you head from sea level to 7,200 feet, the oxygen saturation of your blood will drop from somewhere in the upper 90s (97-99%) to about 94 percent. Just walking around, you might notice it if you aren’t in shape. If you’re trying to play a contact sport at the highest level, you are absolutely going to notice it. The effects of the altitude I expect to hit the defense more than the offense as guys will get gassed early in drives. This makes for a possibility of high scores due to broken defensive assignments, particularly towards the end of the game.
In Week 11, Damien Williams is getting the benefit of the doubt in the starting role, but as we have seen so far, it’s tough to trust this backfield now and possibly for the rest of the season. I expect to see a lot of points in this game as we push the over on total points, making for a fruitful game for stacking in DFS as well as your weekly lineups.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 at Miami Dolphins (1:00 PM) – 40.5 o/u
Other than DeVante Parker as a lower-tier WR3, I can’t sit here and recommend you start and Miami Dolphins’ players in Week 11. Sure they have managed to win a few games, but that doesn’t always equate to fantasy football success. I’m looking forward to watching rookie running back Devin Singletary this week as he continues his development. Coming into the season as one of my top late-round steals in drafts, it’s great to see him healthy and showing off his impressive skill-set. It’s Miami, so the 74-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and eight mph winds won’t be an issue.
New Orleans Saints -5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 PM) – 50 o/u
Looking back to Week 5, when these teams last played, it’s hard not to get excited for this matchup against some of the best wide receivers in the National Football League. Combining with 18 catches for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns, Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin look to light it up again this week. The 68-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and six mph winds make for a clear weather forecast in this Week 11 matchup.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -10 (4:05 PM) – 44.5 o/u
It’s super frustrating when a star fantasy football player misses a dream matchup, but that’s what it looks like will happen this week with George Kittle. Death, taxes, and playing tight ends against the Arizona Cardinals are all certain things in life. Injuries for the San Francisco 49ers are a concern, but the 64-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and four mph winds are a non-factor here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (4:25 PM)
In Week 11, I am starting all Oakland Raiders in my fantasy football and DFS lineups. Josh Jacobs gets the best matchup possible against a defense giving up 173 yards per game on the ground. Jacobs is a top-five play this week at running back for me in all formats. Derek Carr is also a QB1 for me this week as I expect them to get out early and put the pedal down against the winless Cincinnati Bengals.
As for the Bengals, it’s for the best if you have better options. Ryan Finley hurts the ceiling of all wide receivers, and Joe Mixon is Joe Mixon. As for the weather, 66-degree temperatures, partly sunny skies, and eight mph winds make for a great Week 11 forecast.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams -6 (8:20 PM) – 40 o/u
Lightning doesn’t strike twice, right? I don’t see any way Cooper Kupp doesn’t have a bounce-back performance against the Chicago Bears and attempt to make up for the crushing defeats his fantasy owners suffered last week because of it. Yes, I am still upset by losing by 0.38 points because of his goose egg in Week 10. Thanks for asking.
Although Mitch Trubisky had a solid day last week, I don’t expect him to do it again in Week 11. It’s just hard to have any confidence in the Bears’ offense right now. Seventy-degree temperatures, clear skies, and no wind make for perfect weather.
Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions (1:00 PM) – 47 o/u
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -3 (1:00 PM) – 43 o/u
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings -10 (1:00 PM) – 40.5 o/u
Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.