I gave you my initial NFL picks for this week on Monday morning, but since then, I’ve had more time to look at the lines, evaluate the matchups, and monitor the injury reports. Now, some of my picks have changed, while others have remained the same. So without further ado, here are my NFL Week 11 predictions, picks against the spread, and over/unders.
NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
Chargers -165, Packers +140
It’s hard to trust the Los Angeles Chargers as a road favorite of three points in Lambeau Field, given how their defense has been playing, even against the Packers. Their offense is still not an impressive unit, but they’ve recorded a season-high for yards in consecutive weeks, which is very encouraging. Against a Chargers defense that is allowing the most passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt, I like this streak to continue.
On the other side, Green Bay is — once again — one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and their stats in defending the pass are boosted by the quarterbacks they’ve gone up against — Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Brett Rypien, and Kenny Pickett.
For the season, this is a matchup of the 23rd and 27th-ranked defenses by DVOA, and the total is only 43.5
Pick: Over 43.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
Titans +260, Jaguars -320
Was last week’s 34-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers an aberration for the Jacksonville Jaguars? Or were they not as good as their 6-2 record indicated? I think it’s somewhere in the middle.
So far this season, the Jaguars have been underperforming offensively and over-performing on defense. Despite the lofty expectations for this unit, the Jaguars are just 19th in yards per game, 19th in DVOA, and 23rd in EPA/play. Meanwhile, defensively, they’re top 10 in EPA/play, success rate, and DVOA.
After a horrible performance against the Niners in which he had three turnovers, I think Trevor Lawrence bounces back here against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL that has also generated the fewest takeaways this season. I don’t love it at seven, however, so I’ll tease it with another divisional home favorite.
Pick: Jaguars -1 and Lions -1.5 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
Raiders +600, Dolphins -900
I missed the value on the Miami Dolphins when the spread was single digits, but I still like them to win handedly.
We have plenty of evidence of them being capable of blowing out bad teams, and yes, the Las Vegas Raiders are still a bad team despite a two-game winning streak. Those were two home games against Daniel Jones/Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, this is a major step up.
Pick: Dolphins -12.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
Cowboys -525, Panthers +400
The last time the Dallas Cowboys were double-digit favorites on the road, they lost outright to the Arizona Cardinals. I’m not predicting an upset win here, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Carolina Panthers keep this under 11 points.
As much as Bryce Young has struggled, he is far superior to DeVito, who the Cowboys faced last week, and the Panthers will be coming off 10 days of rest after just playing on Thursday Night Football.
It’s also a little suspicious that this line isn’t higher, especially considering the Cowboys are coming off a 32-point win in which they put up 640 yards of offense and averaged 8.3 yards per play.
Pick: Panthers +10.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Odds
Cardinals +185, Texans -225
Maybe the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for the Houston Texans considering how good C.J. Stroud has been as a rookie, but the Arizona Cardinals are a much more competent team now with both Kyler Murray and James Conner back.
I initially liked the Cardinals in this spot after how Murray looked in his first game back from injury last week, but I’ve started to become more concerned with Arizona’s defense on the road against Stroud. I don’t need to give you the stats to tell you how impressive Stroud has been, but it’s worth noting that this will be the worst defense they have faced all season.
I would’ve preferred this at 48 or lower, but my confidence in both offenses here, combined with my lack of faith in Arizona’s defense, has me liking the over.
Pick: Over 48.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds
Steelers +100, Browns -120
Holy moly, is this a low total! Considering the matchup, however, it seems warranted.
With a total this low — featuring two turnover-prone quarterbacks — I won’t be taking the under, but you’re mistaken if you think I’m trusting the combination of Kenny Pickett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson to cash an over for me.
The Pittsburgh Steelers won this matchup in Week 2 despite being outgained by 153 yards, largely because of two defensive touchdowns. As inexperienced as DTR is, I’m not sure I like this matchup for Pickett much better, who ranks only ahead of Zach Wilson in EPA/play + CPOE for the season among quarterbacks with at least 176 snaps.
The Steelers’ luck has to run out eventually as well, and in a week where I’m sure there are plenty of Pittsburgh backers, this could easily be it.
Pick: Browns ML (-120)
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Odds
Giants +340, Commanders -425
I’m not sure the Washington Commanders deserve to be a nine-point favorite against anybody, even against this Giants team with DeVito under center. I would lean toward the Giants, but I can’t stomach backing DeVito under any circumstances, so I’ll go in a different direction.
Given that I don’t think this will be a blowout, it’s worth noting that New York with DeVito has scored seven non-garbage time points so far. Even with the Commanders’ offense hitting its stride, that’s why the total is so low. Also, the last time these two teams played, there were 21 combined points scored, and that was with Tyrod Taylor for the Giants.
Pick: Under 37.5
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds
Bears +300, Lions -4380
The line has dropped quite a bit since it has been reported that Justin Fields will be back, and there has been a lot of sharp money on the Chicago Bears.
In two games since acquiring Montez Sweat, the Bears have allowed just 514 yards of offense. The perception is they’re much improved defensively, and while they do have an underrated run defense, those two games came against the Saints and Panthers, two far inferior offenses to the Detroit Lions.
MORE: NFL Over/Under Standings
The Lions, to a similar extent to the Eagles, can beat you in a variety of ways offensively, and at home, they’ve been a juggernaut this season, averaging nearly 30 points per game.
Two of the Bears’ three wins this season have come on Thursday Night Football (one of which was against the Panthers). Their other win was against the Josh McDaniels/Brian Hoyer-led Raiders. I still think they’re one of the five worst teams in the NFL and that there has been an overcorrection with this line.
Pick: Lions -7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
Buccaneers +385, 49ers -500
The 49ers were back at full strength last week, and they quickly reminded us that before their three-game losing streak and injuries to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, they had a strong case for being the best team in the league.
I find this Buccaneers defense to be a bit overrated because their metrics are inflated by performances against underwhelming offenses in the Bears, Saints, Falcons, and Titans, who they held to an average of 12 ppg. In games against top 10 offenses, that number is more than double. When completely healthy, no team has held the 49ers to under 30 points this season.
Instead of taking the game over here, I’m going to isolate the 49ers’ team total.
Pick: 49ers over 26.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
Jets +260, Bills -320
As much as the Buffalo Bills’ defense has struggled in recent weeks, a matchup against Zach Wilson is almost as good as it gets, which is saying something with the number of backup quarterbacks being thrust into starting roles.
On the other side, the Bills are 1-2 in their last three games against the Jets dating back to last season, and Josh Allen’s struggles are a big reason why. Since 2022 vs. the Jets, Allen has averaged 196 passing yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt and five interceptions. Each of those games had a combined score of less than 40 points as well.
Unders are a combined 13-6 in Jets/Bills games this season, and that’s the direction I’m going in with this pick.
Pick: Under 40.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
Seahawks -115, Rams -105
The Los Angeles Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks by 27 points on the road in Week 1, and that was without Cooper Kupp. For this matchup, they will have Kupp and Matthew Stafford back after a one-game absence, and they’ll be facing a Seahawks defense that I think is overrated by their easy schedule.
After a three-game stretch against the Giants, an injured Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and the Cardinals in which they allowed just 10 ppg, the Browns, Ravens, and Commanders scored a combined 83 points against Seattle. For the season, they’re just 20th in DVOA and 25th in yards per game.
The Rams’ defense is even worse than Seattle’s, but I have an easier time trusting Stafford at home than Geno Smith on the road, who has been quite erratic this season.
Pick: Rams ML (-105)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Odds
Vikings +110, Broncos -130
Last week, I hyped up both of these defenses in my picks column, noting that they were both underrated and much improved from earlier this season. Then they both proved me to be correct and made me look smart for a change (thank you!).
While I’m sold on these defenses, I’m not completely there with either Joshua Dobbs or Russell Wilson. Combined with the trend of prime-time unders (11 in a row and counting), I’m going to continue going that route with night games.
Pick: Under 42.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
Eagles +115, Chiefs -135
I think the Philadelphia Eagles are the better team, but this matchup is more favorable for the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 20-6-1 ATS in games when the point spread is three points or less, and per the Action Network, he is 15-1 SU in his last 16 night games.
As we saw in the Super Bowl, I’m expecting Mahomes to be able to pick apart this Philly pass defense. Especially since the Chiefs’ offensive line, which is the top-ranked unit in pass block win rate, should be able to contain their pass rush once again.
I think this will be a one-score game, but I have to lean with the Chiefs here as long as it’s under a field goal.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5
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