The NFL Week 4 fantasy football weather forecast is here to help you set your lineups. But before we get to that…when the hell did it become October? I swear that just last week it was March. I guess that is what 2020 does to you mentally, given how ridiculous this year has been. Maybe it was naive of me or just hopeful thinking. Still, I thought that perhaps the NFL and Fantasy football would be spared from what is going on globally, but unfortunately, reality has caught up.
We now are all dealing with the effects as games are shifted due to unprecedented circumstances. All we can do is move on and deal with the effect as best we can with the best information we have at the time. Good luck this week. We might be needing that right now more than ever.
Note: All times are Eastern Standard time, and forecasts will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing this up to kickoff. All betting lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
I bring this up first because of all the games in Week 4, we have more uncertainty on this one more than any other. Currently postponed, we have no idea if it will be played this week, likely on Monday, or pushed off until a later date.
Please make sure to get with your commissioners and determine your league’s plan regarding players in the matchup. Once we have a definitive answer, we will be posting updates across the site as best we can.
Chance of rain during the game
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 (Sunday 1:00 PM) 42.5 o/u
It seems like every week, I am talking about Florida with a chance of rain, but that is a daily forecast for the Sunshine State. Can we start a petition to remain it the “Chance of Rain State?” It might not look as good on a license plate, but at least it would be accurate.
There is a solid chance we see showers during the game as the percentage raises during the morning into the afternoon for the 1:00 PM kickoff. While I don’t expect to see high rainfall totals, it will still have an impact on ball security when the ball gets dewy. Winds will remain below the impactful level around 10 MPH, and temperatures will be mild, around 80-degrees.
Unfortunately, neither team will be at full strength as both Chris Godwin and Mike Williams will miss the game due to injuries. It will be up to both Keenan Allen and Mike Evans to carry the load for the passing game. On an interesting note, Sunday will mark the first time since 1950, there was a 20+ year age gap between opposing starting QBs. With the league’s oldest starting QB (Tom Brady, 43) vs. the youngest (Justin Herbert, 22).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (Sunday 1:00 PM) 49 o/u
Practically a copy and paste of the Tampa forecast just that it will be a bit chillier as Fall has hit the Midwest. There will be a chance of rain for most of the game, but nothing that will impact the play on the field. Winds will stay below 10 MPH with cooler temperatures hovering around 63-degrees.
I think this is under the radar for a game that will be entertaining to watch and relatively high scoring. The best thing for the Jaguars is the return of D.J. Chark. I know I was surprised just how affected Garnder Minshew’s play was when missing Chark in the lineup.
Both of these teams will throw the ball a ton, especially the Bengals, as RB Joe Mixon comes into the game banged up. Joe Burrow, who is on pace for 765 attempts, has not thrown less than 36 in a game. The volume will be there in this game for someone like Tyler Boyd to have a fantastic fantasy performance in Week 4.
Chilly, windy forecast
Indianapolis Colts -3 at Chicago Bears (Sunday 4:25 PM) – 43 o/u
Our first chilly game of the season, and it is fitting that it is Chicago. While the thermostat will read 53 degrees, it certainly won’t feel like that thanks to the blustery winds. Forecasted for 17 MPH winds and gusts around 25 MPH, temperatures will feel like they are in the 30s. The wind is the only factor that we are concerned with as they start to have an impact once they cross the 15 MPH threshold. Long passes and kicks will be most impacted due to the increased winds.
I am very interested to see if the shot in the arm that Nick Foles brought to the Bears’ offense continues in this matchup. The willingness to get aggressive brought value to the entire offense. I expect this to be a close game and come down to the 4th quarter, right when Phillip Rivers likes to throw a crippling interception.
Unseasonably warm weather
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 at Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 54.5 o/u
Time for some fun in the sun as this game will be one of the best of the weekend. Not that I expect it to be competitive, but tons of offense on display. One thing that could lead to the increased offense is the defenses getting gassed due to the unseasonably warm weather. At first, 86-degree temperatures are virtually nothing, but temperatures will close in on triple digits with the heat index as we push 100 degrees.
My best advice for this game is to play everyone. Both of these teams love to throw the ball and have poor passing defenses, especially Seattle, who is missing Jammal Adams and has given up a league-high 1,292 passing yards. The only players who I might temper expectations on are the running backs, for different reasons. Chris Carson comes in banged up but should play. As for Myles Gaskin, it is because I expect the Dolphins to get behind early and have to abandon a consistent rushing attack. They will both be lower-end RB2s for me in my rankings.
Worry-Free Weather in Week 4
Baltimore Ravens -13.5 at Washington Football Team (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 45.5 o/u
It is almost surprising that one of the best teams in the NFL, full of talent, has so few players you feel comfortable starting every single week. Outside of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, who else are you confident in your fantasy lineups every week?
Yes, Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins have played well, but they both severely limit each other’s upside. Dobbins is RB35 in PPR, followed by Ingram at RB45. Even Marquise Brown, who I thought was a breakout target for 2020, has disappointed and sits at WR55. Brown has only 12 catches on 18 targets for 152 yards on the season.
As for the weather in Week 4, expect mostly cloudy skies, 6 MPH winds with 69-degree temperatures.
Arizona Cardinals -3 at Carolina Panthers (1:00 PM) – 51.5 o/u
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, both DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk will be active for Week 4. Hopkins and Kirk missed practice this week while dealing with ankle injuries. My play in this game is RB Kenyan Drake, as I think this is the week that fantasy manager’s patience is rewarded.
Drake gets a beautiful matchup against a Panthers defense that, in their last 19 games, has allowed 34 rushing touchdowns, including seven of them in their three games this year. He is a top-5 player for me in Week 4.
70-degree temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and 6 MPH winds make for a beautiful weather forecast this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (Sunday 8:20 PM) – 45 o/u
I can’t figure out if we are watching the Eagles or a rerun of M.A.S.H because this team has nothing but injured players. On Friday, the only active wide receiver who was practicing was Greg Ward. That is not a recipe for success. The 49ers start to get some of their players back, none larger than TE George Kittle. Kittle will be a top play this week and will take his frustration out on a depleted 0-2-1 Eagles’ defense.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers -7 (Monday 8:15 PM) – 56.5 o/u
Injured wide receivers. That is the storyline for this matchup as both teams will be hoping they key players can play. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Davante Adams all are carrying a questionable designation into Monday night. Unfortunately, fantasy managers likely won’t have other options available if they are unable to play. Still, you are banking on them playing as you can not leave them on your bench due to their league-winning upside.
Week 4’s edition of Monday Night Football won’t be impacted by weather as we expect 54-degree temperatures, clear skies, and 8 MPH winds.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans -3.5 (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 53.5 o/u
New Orleans Saints -3 at Detroit Lions (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 54 o/u
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys -4 (Sunday 1:00 PM) – 56 o/u
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams -13.5 (Sunday 4:05 PM) – 48 o/u
Buffalo Bills -3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday 4:25 PM) – 52.5 o/u
Teams on a Bye Week
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
Tennessee Titans (3-0)
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