While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
With Week 5 of the NFL season upon us, here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.
Top Underdog Pick’em Plays for Sunday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four for 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry.
Lamar Jackson Higher Than 61.5 Rushing Yards
We are spoiled for options this week as both teams are loaded with talent — and Lamar Jackson is sitting right at the top. Jackson has something to prove this year, which is not something you tend to see from a former MVP. But Jackson bet on himself and continues putting the team on his back and legs.
His 61.5 rushing-yard projection feels low to me, especially when you consider Jackson has games of 119, 107, and 73 in the last three weeks and leads all QBs, clearing Jalen Hurts by 111 yards (316 to 215). Heck, he is ninth in the entire league in rushing. Baltimore likes to take their time.
They sit 31st in overall pace of play, 22nd in neutral scripts, and the slowest (32s/play) in the first half. Cincinnati has yet to face a QB who can do more than move in the pocket (Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, and Teddy Bridgewater), let alone a dominant threat like Jackson.
In his 20 games against the AFC North, Jackson has averaged 62.9 yards. And in his games against Cincy, he averaged 11.3 attempts and 75.7 yards (third-most vs. teams with multiple matchups). I favor the higher on Jackson’s 61.5-rushing-yard projection on Underdog Pick’em.
Mark Andrews Higher Than 65.5 Receiving Yards
No one should really be surprised Mark Andrews struggled last week. Buffalo is legit. They shut down Andrews and hyper-focused on him after Baltimore lost Rashod Bateman in the second half with a foot injury. That same injury will keep him out of Week 5, leaving Andrews the unquestioned No. 1 target for Jackson.
If not for Mahomes to Kelce, Jackson to Andrews is the top QB/TE duo in the league. In the three previous weeks, Andrews averaged 7.3 receptions on 10.3 targets for 81.7 yards and a score in each contest. When he last faced the Bengals in Week 16 of 2021, Andrews had 125 yards and a TD on eight receptions.
The Bengals are 12th in DVOA vs. TEs, but there are levels to this, and few can match the stress Andrews places on a defense. I’ll be taking Andrews to have higher than 65.5 receiving yards with this SNF Underdog Pick’em.
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J.K. Dobbins Higher Than 0.5 Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Welcome back, Mr. Dobbins. After missing all of last year and the first two games of 2022, J.K. Dobbins wasted no time converting drives into points. While his efficiency was sub-standard (3.15 ypc), Dobbins scored twice against a strong Buffalo defense.
What is surprising is that, despite missing two weeks, Dobbins is already inside the top 20 in red-zone carries (7) and is 13th in carries inside the five (3), which is when scoring expectations skyrocket. If/when Baltimore gets in close, they are giving Dobbins opportunities to convert.
I am staying away from him from a yardage standpoint — I try to avoid post-ACL players until they look like their former selves. I prefer the Jackson and Andrews options more, but Dobbins has a great chance to go higher on his 0.5 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns.
Joe Mixon Higher Than 3.5 Receptions
For as tough as Baltimore can be, they are vulnerable at times against RBs leaking out. They like to run exotic blitzes, and RBs as dump-offs can be useful, especially if the offensive line has struggled. While they’re 16th in DVOA vs. receiving RBs, the 54.8 yards per game surrendered is third-most through four weeks.
Joe Mixon is having an okay year, but that’s as far as it goes. He’s crossed 60 yards just once and is averaging 2.7 yards a clip behind an offensive line that ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. So, if you can’t run, you get the ball into your playmakers’ hands in a different way. That’s been the air this year — through four weeks, Mixon is averaging six targets and 4.3 targets a game this year.
Mixon gashed the Ravens last year with 65 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. The safest exposure for him in this matchup looks like taking a shot on his receptions projection.
Tee Higgins Higher Than 5.0 Receptions
If there has been one good thing about this year, it’s watching the collective football world begin to put the proper respect on Tee Higgins’ name. Coming into the year, Higgins was within 0.2 of CeeDee Lamb in per-game averages on targets, receptions, yards, efficiency, and even fantasy points.
All and all, he’s been is elite. Over the last three weeks, Higgins has averaged 6.0 receptions on 8.7 targets for 96 yards. He’s also got a pretty good track record against the Ravens, too.
Higgins has 23 receptions in his three games on 36 targets for 318 yards and two touchdowns. A good chunk came in their Week 16 matchup last year, with 194 yards and two scores on 12 receptions. It’s worth noting both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey were out that game, but they haven’t been all that good against WRs this year, anyway.
With Baltimore likely to try to keep the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands by chewing the clock, watch for Cincy to get aggressive. It’s the Bengals’ M.O., sitting in the top 10 in attempts per game. There’s no point trying to get fancy and looking outside of the top pass catchers for Cincinnati. Expect another busy night for Higgins as he clears the 5.0-reception Underdog Pick’em projection.
Ja’Marr Chase Higher Than 71.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been an up-and-down season for Ja’Marr Chase after setting the world on fire in his rookie year. Volume is not the issue, averaging 10.3 targets a game. It’s that defenses adjust and say, “no, you aren’t going to get free shots downfield.”
Teams are shading their safety in two-high looks to Chase’s side, which has subsequently aided Higgins with more one-on-one looks without a bracket over the top.
That’s not to say Chase has been completely taken out of games. The guy is still averaging over 73 yards and six receptions a game. He had 81 yards last week despite Xavien Howard giving him all he could handle.
If Cincinnati can get anything going on the ground, all it will take is Baltimore getting overly aggressive once and leaving Chase on an island. That’s a matchup Joe Burrow will exploit every single time. I’m taking Chase to go higher than his 71.5-receiving-yardage projection on Sunday Night Football.
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