Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season featured several intriguing matchups, including some divisional showdowns and must-win games for teams looking to improve their playoff odds.
Which teams improved their postseason chances with a win in Week 12? Let’s examine whose odds jumped the most in Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor this week.
Seattle Seahawks | +20.2%
Your newest first-place NFC West team is the one that was in last place just one week ago. That’s how tight this division race is and underscores the importance of intradivision games, as the Seattle Seahawks earned one of the most important wins on Sunday by downing the Arizona Cardinals. This win improved their chance of making the playoffs by 20.2%, as they now have a 36.1% shot at the postseason.
Seattle struggled on offense, but Mike Macdonald’s defensive personnel changes (including moving on from both starting inside linebackers) have paid off handsomely the last two weeks. After allowing an average of 29.7 PPG from Weeks 4-9 (fourth-worst in the NFL over that span), the Seahawks have allowed a total of 23 points in two games since returning from the bye.
COBY BRYANT PICK-6 IN SEATTLE!
📺: #AZvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/xVFRwEbk70— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
The Seahawks now have a 23.4% chance to win the NFC West after sitting in single digits for the last several weeks. They’ll see the Cardinals again in two weeks for another crucial matchup, this time in Glendale, Ariz.
It’s worth noting that the Cardinals would once again control the division if the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Philadelphia Eagles tonight on Sunday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers | +8.4%
The Green Bay Packers are 8-3, having won six of their last seven games. With their Week 12 win over the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay’s odds of making the playoffs jumped to 92.5% — an 8.4-percent improvement.
But can Green Bay still win the NFC North?
The Packers’ odds of winning the division are just 9.5% even after their Week 12 win.
Two of their three losses are to the teams ahead of them in the division standings. Green Bay lost at home to both the Minnesota Vikings (Week 4) and Detroit Lions (Week 9), putting it behind the eight ball in the division race.
PFN’s model gives Green Bay a 10.1% chance of winning its fifth Super Bowl in February.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6.8%
After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ blowout win over the New York Giants in Week 12, the Bucs now have a 52.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 47.7% chance of winning the division, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
For reference, the Atlanta Falcons only have a 47.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 44.4% chance to win the NFC South, per PFN’s simulator.
Since the Falcons hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs, Tampa Bay must finish with a better record than Atlanta. However, the Bucs have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, so PFN’s simulator believes Tampa Bay can beat out Atlanta.
The Bucs’ chances of making the playoffs are tied almost entirely to winning the NFC South. Without a division title, they probably won’t earn a postseason berth.
Miami Dolphins | +5.9%
The Miami Dolphins won their third consecutive game, defeating the New England Patriots 34-15 in Week 12.
While Miami only has a 0.4% chance of winning the AFC East, this victory improved its playoff odds by 5.9%. The Dolphins now have a 30.1% chance of making the postseason this year.
Tua Tagovailoa continued his strong play in Week 12, completing 29 of 40 passes for 317 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions against New England. This was Tua’s fourth career game with four or more passing touchdowns — his career-high was six scores against the Ravens in Week 2 of the 2022 season.
Jaylen Waddle had his best game of the season, catching eight passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. Jonnu Smith continued his strong play, finishing with nine catches for 87 yards and a score. De’Von Achane caught two touchdowns as well. Tyreek Hill finished with five catches for 48 yards.
Next up, the Dolphins will travel to Wisconsin to face the Packers on Thanksgiving. Can Miami improve its winning streak to four games?