The Minnesota Vikings built their 2025 season around the belief that J.J. McCarthy could grow into their long-term answer at quarterback. Through four starts, that plan remains rooted in hope instead of evidence, and a leading national analyst now says Minnesota’s quarterback future ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
Why The Athletic Places McCarthy in the League’s Most Uncertain QB Tier
In his annual quarterback-future audit for The Athletic, senior writer Mike Sando evaluated every team’s situation based on performance, contract structure, and long-term trajectory. McCarthy landed in one of the lowest tiers, grouped with passers whose early production raises immediate concerns about durability and performance.
Sando laid out the case bluntly. He noted that the Vikings “did not bring back Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones, who are both shining for winning teams elsewhere,” framing Minnesota’s decision to clear the runway for McCarthy as a gamble that has yet to pay off. Through five starts, McCarthy ranks 35th in PFSN’s QBi.
He added that McCarthy “ranks last among 40 qualifying quarterbacks in completion rate and passer rating and 39th in EPA per pass play,” placing the 10th overall pick near the bottom of every major efficiency metric.
The evaluation directly addresses the underlying issue facing Minnesota’s front office. After cycling through Kirk Cousins, Darnold, and Jones, the Vikings finally made the aggressive quarterback investment fans had wanted. But the early returns have left the organization in a difficult spot. McCarthy has shown moments of poise and accuracy, particularly on scripted drives, but the extended stretches of stalled possessions and turnovers have outweighed those flashes.
Even Sando acknowledged that the Vikings are trying to develop McCarthy under difficult conditions. Minnesota’s offensive line has been inconsistent, the running game has disappeared for long stretches, and Justin Jefferson has dealt with nagging injuries. Still, the Vikings are one of the only teams in the league without stability at quarterback for either the short or long term.
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At 4-5 and facing a pivotal NFC North matchup against the Bears on Sunday, Sando stops short of suggesting Minnesota should rethink its investment. However, he also made it clear where the Vikings stand compared to their peers in the 2024 quarterback class and the rest of the NFL. Teams like New England, Washington, and Chicago have already seen signs of growth from their young passers. Minnesota is still waiting for that moment.
Until McCarthy makes a decisive jump, national analysts will continue to view the Vikings’ quarterback plan as one of the least stable in the league.