Fresh off beating the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10 on “Thursday Night Football,” the Denver Broncos play the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. Denver is eyeing a critical win against the Chiefs, as a victory would drop the Chiefs’ odds to win the division to just 3%. Additionally, Kansas City’s playoff odds would also be 46.4%.
The Broncos, meanwhile, would have their odds jump to 71.7% to win the division. And the odds of making the playoffs would sit at 98.6%.
Broncos’ Offense vs. Chiefs’ Offense
This one is simple. In a passing league, offense beats defense. So, the Chiefs are No. 4 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score, while the Broncos are No. 14. The question becomes, can the Broncos keep up with the high-powered Chiefs’ offense?
That said, the Broncos’ defense held the Chiefs’ offense to under 17 in their first matchup in the 2024 season. So, it’ll come down to quarterback Bo Nix’s wide range of outcomes. Luckily for Broncos fans, he matches up well against the Chiefs.
Nix went 22-of-30 for a 73.3 completion percentage, 215 yards, two touchdowns, a 7.2 yards per attempt, and a 115.3 passer rating. The Chiefs played their backups in the second matchup against the Broncos.
The Broncos’ offense should be able to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense in Week 11.
Broncos’ Offense vs. Chiefs’ Defense
So, now we look at the Broncos’ offense vs. the Chiefs’ defense. The Chiefs’ defense ranks No. 10 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, while the aforementioned Broncos’ offense ranks No. 14. The slight edge goes to the former, but this is the first matchup of two between the teams. Football is about individual matchups. Despite the numbers, we give the edge to the Broncos based on their prior performance.
READ MORE: Are the Broncos Still a Top 10 Team After Uninspiring Week 10 Performance?
The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank No. 21 in pass rush win rate, while the Broncos rank No. 2 in pass block win rate. In addition, the Chiefs are dead last in run stop win rate, while the Broncos are No. 18 in run block win rate. The Broncos look poised for an upset.
Chiefs’ Offense vs. Broncos’ Defense
Likewise, the Chiefs are No. 4 in pass block win rate, while the Broncos are No. 5 in pass rush win rate. So, it’s strength on strength. Give the slight edge to the offense. The Chiefs, though, are No. 23 in run block win rate, while the Broncos are No. 6 in run stop win rate.
That means the Broncos can eliminate the Chiefs’ run game and dictate the pass. Running back Isiah Pacheco may be out in Week 11 as well. We’ll have a breakdown of the individual matchups, including how the Broncos win, how they lose, and a score prediction, later in the week.