The Denver Broncos and Kansas Chiefs play each other in Week 11. Ahead of that, ESPN’s Matt Bowen chimed in on the outcome. Spoiler alert: Don’t expect a shootout between Denver and Kansas City, according to Bowen — quite the opposite.
Matt Bowen on Broncos-Chiefs Game
He said, “This feels like an old-school matchup, featuring two of the top defenses in the league. Both Denver and Kansas City are allowing just over 17 points per game, while this Broncos unit leads the NFL with 46 sacks, and Denver is holding opposing offenses to a third-down conversion rate of 28.1%. Tough to find points here.”
Bowen may be on to something. In addition to both defenses allowing just over 17 points per game, the Broncos’ defense allows the third-fewest yards per game, and the Chiefs’ defense allows the sixth-fewest yards per game.
Specifically, the Broncos’ defense allows the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, and the Chiefs’ defense allows the seventh-fewest passing yards per game. So just run the ball? In addition, the Broncos’ defense allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the Chiefs’ defense allows the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game as well.
In a defensive game, the slight edge goes to the Broncos. Denver has 46 sacks and Kansas City has 20. The Broncos are No. 1 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, and the Chiefs are No. 9 as well.
Specifically, the X-Factor is going to be the Broncos’ defensive line vs. the Chiefs’ offensive line. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will mix and match, sending five or more pass rushers with zone defense because of the mismatch the Chiefs have with slot wide receiver Rashee Rice lining up against nickel cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos’ offense will rely on the run game. Hot take: RJ Harvey totals 100-plus scrimmage yards.
Elsewhere in the Broncos-Chiefs game, the result is paramount for both teams. A Broncos win in Week 11 puts the Chiefs’ odds to win the division at just 3%. And the Chiefs’ playoff odds would sit at 46.4%. If the Chiefs win in Week 11, meanwhile, Kansas City’s odds to win the division jump to 20%. And the Chiefs’ odds to make the playoffs jump to 72.1%.