The Denver Broncos are the most polarizing team in the NFL. Yes, Denver is 8-2 and the No. 2 seed in the AFC Conference. Also, yes, quarterback Bo Nix is the “weak spot” on the roster. We’re splitting hairs, but an upgrade at quarterback may be all Denver needs for a deep playoff run in January.
The question becomes whether Nix rises to the occasion before then. Or will head coach Sean Payton move on after two seasons if he doesn’t?
The Case for Keeping Bo Nix
Keeping Nix is the right roster construction move. If you move on, you’re starting over with a rookie QB or paying to acquire a vet with a high cap number. If it’s the latter, it’ll affect the allocation of the rest of the roster.
Part of the quartet of pass rushers on the defensive line, John Franklin-Meyers, 29, most likely walks in free agency if the Broncos move on from Nix — either way. The Broncos will have to reallocate money, or the timeline won’t align with a rookie QB.
With over $49 million in cap space in 2026, trading Nix creates roughly a $5.1 million dead money cap number. So, let’s say the Broncos trade Nix to the Arizona Cardinals as part of a deal for Kyler Murray. The Broncos then take on Murray’s roughly $35 million cap hit for 2026. The Broncos’ cap space dwindles to just under $9 million. Even with a Murray restructure, it’s an unexpected cost of around $15-$25 million. So, that’s $10-$20 million in savings on a restructure.
On the low end, though, it’s an extra $15 million in cost. Now, the debate becomes Nix on the third year of his rookie contract and an additional $15 million vs. Murray. That $15 million could go towards re-signing Franklin-Meyers and/or a wide receiver acquisition.
If it’s the latter only, that’s the only other upgrade on the roster: a wide receiver. It’s why the Broncos were in on Jaylen Waddle. The Broncos are No. 16 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score, so they’re on the doorstep of being elite.
If the Broncos draft another rookie, there’s the roughly $5 million dead money cap number for Nix, then at least a $3 million cap number for the rookie. But probably more since the Broncos likely have to move up from their first-round pick in the 20s. That said, now the Broncos are using additional draft pick resources to replace Nix. All said, there are too many moving parts in replacing Nix after two seasons.
The Broncos should keep the salary cap savings from a potential deal for Murray and the draft picks from a potential move up in the draft and invest in a wide receiver for Nix in Year 3. A competent quarterback on a rookie contract is the biggest competitive advantage in football.
There’s the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, the 2018 Los Angeles Rams, the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals, the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles, and the 2023 San Fransico 49ers. All of those teams went to the Super Bowl with a quarterback on a rookie contract.
There’s no telling if another quarterback on a rookie contract is competent until Year 2, so 2026 is a waste year with a stacked roster. Then Nix, plus the savings and kept draft picks, is better than acquiring a vet such as Murray.
The Case for Moving On From Nix
The Broncos are a win-now team at 8-2. While his touchdown percentage is the same, Nix’s completion percentage is down from 66.3% as a rookie to 60.9% in Year 2. This suggests Nix may not have the accuracy to cut it at the next level.
Colin Cowherd voiced his opinion on Friday.
He said, ” I wonder – because the roster, the O-line is set, the D-line is set, the pass rush, the receivers – would Sean Payton draft another quarterback. I’m dead serious. Bo Nix has regressed badly. His completion percentage is now toeing that back-up quarterback line.”
While Nix’s passing yards per game in Year 2 (212.6) are comparable to his rookie season (222.1), his passer rating is down from 93.3 to 85.7. Passer rating accounts for completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions on a per-attempt basis.
For reference, Nix is No. 28 in the league in completion percentage, while he is No. 27 in passer rating.
With seven games left in the regular season, the evaluation of Nix is still up in the air. The Broncos play the Chiefs in Week 11, though, so that will provide a lot of answers. Nix has consecutive sub-70 passer rating games heading into Week 11, but one of those was against the stout Houston Texans’ defense. We’ll know mostly everything about Nix by the end of Week 11.
Nix is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns, but his inconsistency is a problem. There are four three-plus touchdown games and three sub-70 passer rating games this season. Will the real Nix please stand up?
If Nix is just a quarterback with a wide range of outcomes every week, then it might be time to move on. Case in point: the Broncos were supposed to exploit the matchup vs. the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10 but didn’t.
For all of his perceived faults, though, Nix and the Broncos are 8-2, atop the AFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC Conference heading into Week 11. Even with a wide range of outcomes, it’s hard to argue against trading for a game-wrecking wide receiver heading into Year 3 of Nix and just having the quarterback spam his new No. 1 WR 10-plus targets a game.
Through 10 games, WR Troy Franklin leads the Broncos in targets with 73. He was a fourth-round pick. And No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton is second with 66 targets. No other pass-catcher has more than 45 targets (Evan Engram has 45). Franklin, meanwhile, leads the team in receptions with 42 for 425 yards and five touchdowns. Sutton has 41 receptions for 590 yards and four touchdowns.
So, this is a consolidated passing distribution that a wide receiver acquisition can come in and start to dominate in. Franklin is a volume-based target that’s not accruing yards, although he has a 12.4 average target distance.
If this is the ceiling for Nix, it’s worth acquiring a wide receiver who may be able to lift the ceiling marginally. A rising tide lifts all ships. Do you side with Cowherd?