When the Carolina Panthers take the field in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, there will be no love lost between the teams.
The last time the two teams met in Week 3, the Panthers frustrated the Falcons’ offense into two turnovers, forcing starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the bench in the fourth quarter, and kept them off the scoreboard for the entire day, resulting in a 30-0 shutout.
Week 11 brings an opportunity for Atlanta to try to avenge that embarrassing loss. However, it also presents Carolina with a meaningful opportunity to prove that they’re a better team than they were in the Week 10 home loss against the bottom-dwelling New Orleans Saints.
Panthers’ Dave Canales vs Falcons’ Jeff Ulbrich
The Carolina Panthers’ offense fell into even hotter water after the Week 10 failure amplified the pass game deficiencies that have existed for most of the season. In Monday’s press conference, Panthers’ head coach and offensive play-caller Dave Canales pointed out a takeaway from the home loss, saying to reporters:
“Pretty simple when they’re playing single high and everyone is at the line of scrimmage. We got to make the most of those opportunities when we have them so that we are a balanced offense.”
Through ten weeks, the Falcons and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich lead the NFL in the rate of defensive silos with the middle of the field closed (63.8%), and play man coverage at the eleventh-highest rate (36.5%) in the league. Cover 1 is the most deployed coverage shell for Atlanta (33.4%), which is the fourth-highest clip deployed by all teams.
While the execution on the field is obviously up to the players, Canales and this offense have had a week to not only look themselves in the mirror following their disappointing performance in Week 10, but also to implement schematic answers to combat the identified problems.
Panthers’ Bryce Young vs Panthers’ Bryce Young
It’s not a typo. I believe a critical component for the Carolina Panthers’ Week 11 outlook is an intrapersonal matchup with quarterback Bryce Young.
Not in the sense that Young doesn’t have self-confidence, necessarily. However, Bryce Young will have to trust his playmakers to make plays when the defense affords them opportunities for explosive plays. It’s directly correlated to the first matchup we just discussed, but this part is the execution of it.
If Dave Canales makes the necessary adjustments and incorporates the skill positions into advantageous concepts, then it’s time for Bryce Young to let it rip in those moments.
As the season progresses, it has become increasingly evident that the departure of wide receiver Adam Thielen has taken its toll on the Panthers’ passing game.
Thielen’s veteran experience and application of that experience were evident in his tendency to find soft spots against zone coverage and present a target for Young, or to identify pressure and pivot to a sight adjustment to create a friendly outlet.
But Thielen also led the 2024 Panthers’ team in receiving yards (193), receptions (7), and touchdowns (4) on throws of 20+ yards. Three of those four touchdowns came in the final six weeks of the season, when Bryce Young and the pass game were most effective.
Thielen is no longer in Carolina, and it’s beyond time to act accordingly.
The Panthers’ offense should operate through the strength and success of Rico Dowdle and the running game. So you’re not asking Young to air it out all day. The offense simply needs Young to trust himself and his playmakers that they can take it when the shot is there.
Tershawn Wharton, Derrick Brown vs Falcons’ Interior Offensive Line
The Atlanta Falcons have already ruled out their starting left guard, Matthew Bergeron, for the matchup on Sunday. The starter on the right side, Pro Bowl guard Chris Lindstrom, is listed as questionable, though he is expected to play.
Obviously critical to the Falcons’ run game, the interior of the offensive line is also incredibly important in trying to thwart inside pressure on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Moving Penix Jr. off his spot in the pocket and forcing him to move his feet and eyes is precisely how teams should aim to attack the second-year pass thrower.
Under pressure this season, Penix Jr. has completed 25-71 attempts (35.2%) in contrast to his throwing accuracy without pressure, where he’s completed 128-189 (67.7%) attempts.
Rookie OLB Nic Scourton will look to continue his progression, and Carolina should recall the impact that safety Tre’von Moehrig had in Week 3, bringing heat off the edge and down the middle. But Wharton and Brown have favorable matchups to exploit.
Wharton, who boasts the tenth-highest 83.2 PFSN DTi score of all qualified players, enters the game having generated eight pressures over the last two weeks. Brown has had Lindstrom’s number every time they meet as if they’re going steady.