Are you searching for an ideal Week 6 pick for your NFL survivor pool? Winging it usually doesn’t get the job done. So, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Here’s my favorite Week 6 pick (with context).
Play It Safe or Bold?
When picking a team, we need to consider short- and long-term strategies and ramifications. For starters, I’m guessing many of your competitors are already out of the running. It’s been a strange season, even by NFL standards.
Last week, for example, four road underdogs prevailed, bringing the season total to 19, or an average of 4.8 per week. Many of these upsets were “major” by betting-line standards, like the Texans in Week 5 (seven-point underdogs), Jaguars in Week 3 (6.5-point underdogs), and Jets in Week 2 (6.5-point underdogs).
So if most of your opponents have played it fairly safe, it might not have been safe enough. And if there are only a handful of you remaining, this might be a good time to play it even safer, if that’s possible.
Because I like to go bold when the group is still sizable. Pick up a couple of under-the-radar wins, clearing the way for safer picks later in the season, when most remaining opponents don’t have the same good options available.
Bet Against Struggling “Bad” Teams?
Also, I like to bet against teams that aren’t playoff contenders, and which are struggling. In other words, we shouldn’t be surprised as they pile up losses.
Some of you might have a similar strategy. Last year, picking whichever team played the Jaguars worked out pretty well. Finding the 2022 version is the key, and honestly, I thought I had the Texans pegged. But their surprising road win last week reminded me that even this strategy isn’t perfect.
Still, there are other struggling franchises this season. Some are unlikely to win more than a handful of contests. So we can seize on these favorable odds, as long as the matchup makes sense.
Bet on Struggling “Good” Teams?
Betting on a supposedly “good” team that’s struggling carries risks. But sometimes, those risks are warranted. If the struggles are based on injuries, and if those injured players are due back, then the answer seems simple enough.
Yet, looking ahead to a team like the 1-4 Raiders after their bye week, with Davante Adams facing a possible suspension, how much can we trust them to rebound? What is that locker room like? Do they still believe they’re good enough to make the playoffs?
That last question is essential for me. I like betting on struggling teams that are still good bets to reach the postseason. We’re wagering that they’ll right the ship and that talent and good coaching will prevail in the end.
Rams vs. Panthers
My recommendation this week hits a lot of these factors. As strange as it sounds, if the 2-3 Rams lose, their playoff hopes might be dashed. Their upcoming schedule is brutal, including the 49ers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Saints, and Chiefs. I could go on, but you get the idea.
The opposing Panthers are a mess. They’re in the midst of a coaching change, and their preseason No. 4 QB is poised to start.
Yes, P.J. Walker will bring his career 2-8 TD-INT mark into a road matchup against last season’s Super Bowl champs. Can Christian McCaffrey continue to carry this franchise? Unlikely, given how LA has been pretty tough against the run, and they know exactly what’s coming.
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds 2023
Since the Rams don’t have a more favorable game on the docket the rest of this season, it’s either pick them now or ignore them the rest of the way. Picking them now gives us more flexibility later in the year.
Matthew Stafford has indeed played objectively terrible in large spurts, while the running game hasn’t been established. But Carolina presents a unique get-right opportunity for a struggling “good” team.
Yes, the Rams are still good. They have arguably the best receiver in the game and some elite defensive playmakers. And their backs are against the wall. For a perennial last-place franchise, this wouldn’t mean much. For the defending champs, we should anticipate a rebound.