The NFL is bringing the action on Thanksgiving day. We have three primetime football games to highlight on Thursday. The Buffalo Bills take on the Detroit Lions, followed by the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys, and then finally, the New England Patriots travel to the Minnesota Vikings for a nightcap.
We’re breaking down the latest 2023 Super Bowl odds in the aftermath of Week 11 and heading into Thanksgiving day. Let’s dive into our Thanksgiving-centric Super Bowl odds analysis and see how these six teams stack up in the playoff race.
NFL Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 12
We’re here to make sure you’re locking in the best payoffs for all of your NFL betting picks. Each franchise has a varying record, but as you can see below, they don’t all offer the same betting odds. Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook are my go-to, thanks to their favorable odds and betting options.
For example, a $100 bet on the team with the best Super Bowl odds — Buffalo at +300 — would pay a $300 profit if they manage to win Super Bowl LVII. Let’s take a look at the latest 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds and break down the teams whose odds present the best value.
Buffalo Bills (+450)
Starting the season as the favorite to win the 2023 Super Bowl, it’s safe to say the Bills have to be slightly disappointed they haven’t been quite as dominant as they had planned. Much of this has to do with injuries. Being 7-3 and tied for first place in the AFC East is a good position, even if there are worrisome trends over the last month.
The biggest storyline for the Bills as the regular season winds down is the performance and health of quarterback Josh Allen. Allen is an unquestioned star, but he’s burdened himself with being the entire offense far too often. As Allen has dealt with an elbow injury over the last two games, the offense has bogged down in key moments.
This team has struggled to win in close games throughout Allen’s tenure with the franchise, almost becoming like an NBA team too reliant on its main star to create in waning moments. Allen’s penchant for risky throws has also too often resulted in turnovers. It’s possible Allen tweaks his game and his elbow heals over the next seven weeks but, that’s an unknown that has directly affected these odds.
Playing Detroit on Thanksgiving should be a win. Buffalo won fairly comfortably against Cleveland despite the 31-23 final one-score margin. This has been a rough patch during a long regular season, but we can’t overlook the talent on this roster and why they were a favorite early on.
Now is a good time to bet on Buffalo to win the Super Bowl if you believe in Allen’s health.
Dallas Cowboys (+900)
The Cowboys are one of the most interesting teams in the NFL. They clearly lost impactful talent last offseason, and their quarterback play since getting Dak Prescott back from injury has been worrisome. However, at 7-3 and coming off an incredible 40-3 win against the Vikings, Dallas is undoubtedly one of the major forces in the NFC.
Dallas’ running game and defense are elite, giving this team more of an identity than expected despite losing Amari Cooper and Randy Gregory. The emergence of Tony Pollard as a capable star has allowed this offense to be much more balanced. If Prescott can be more consistent throughout the home stretch of the year, the Cowboys might be the most well-rounded team in the conference.
This week’s match (playing the Giants on Thanksgiving) is a favorable one since the Cowboys beat New York 23-16 in Week 3 without Prescott in the lineup. The Giants are a surprisingly competitive team, but they only have one speed and one way to win. Running Saquon Barkley into the teeth of this defensive front won’t be enough for a win.
I don’t think the Cowboys ultimately win the Super Bowl, but there is a pathway for them. Their upside is lower than most of their contending peers, but their floor is high. Considering their next four games are against the Giants, Colts, Texans, and Jaguars, this is likely the best price you’ll get for their Super Bowl odds.
Minnesota Vikings (+1800)
The Vikings were due for a letdown game after such a thrilling win in Buffalo in Week 10. However, losing to the Cowboys 40-3 at home was shocking. I had made the argument in last week’s Super Bowl odds piece that the Vikings were a good team by simply maximizing their stars in a way that allowed them to mitigate their weaker positional groups.
This included their pass defense, which is 31st in yards allowed. Now in back-to-back weeks, the Vikings have seen 300-yard passers have a field day against them. But they’ve also given up at least 137 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks.
The sky isn’t falling for the Vikings, but there are major weaknesses within this group. They have to win with consistent playmaking from their top-heavy offense and timely stops with their mediocre defense. Having Kirk Cousins at quarterback is always a concern because of his earned reputation for struggling in pressured situations.
We saw that Sunday with his 12-of-23, 105 yards, and seven-sack performance against Dallas. Though Cousins was far from the only one to blame for the offense’s befuddling disappearance, he will be the one who determines this team’s ceiling. Though we knew that at the start of the season, Minnesota’s pre-season Super Bowl odds have been cut in half from 36-to-1.
I wouldn’t bet on Minnesota to win the Super Bowl. They’re a terrific storyline for the regular season at 8-2, but they also seem like the high-seed who could lose in the first round of the playoffs.
New England Patriots (+7000)
I’m stunned the Patriots have better odds to win the Super Bowl than the Giants. It’s not that they’re the worst team, but the AFC East is loaded. And the Patriots have the least steady quarterback situation of any team playing on Thanksgiving. Last week, Mac Jones completed 23-of-27 passes for 246 yards but also took six sacks and failed to push the Patriots into scoring position after the first quarter.
At 6-4, sure, the Patriots could help the AFC East become the first division to have four teams in the playoffs. New England’s defense has been spectacular, ranking second in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed. No team has given up fewer first downs.
But the offense has been dreadful. Despite boasting the best offensive starting field position in the league, they’re 25th in yards and 20th in points. Jones still has more interceptions (seven) than passing touchdowns (four). That can’t continue.
Playing Minnesota off their worst loss of the season might be difficult for the Patriots, and the weather will be increasingly cold. The Vikings’ run defense has been good enough to be confident against a talented but declining Patriots’ backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson has particularly seen a decrease in efficiency, becoming more of a receiving threat than an effective rusher.
New York Giants (+8000)
What’s happened in New York this season has been nothing short of truly impressive. I don’t know what they’d have done without a great season from Barkley, but he’s parlaying his contract season into a massive payday. Daboll’s strategy of being run-heavy and relying on Wink Martindale’s defense to grind out close games has worked as well as anyone could’ve hoped.
That all said, have no chance of winning the Super Bowl despite their 7-3 record. There are too many weaknesses in personnel on both sides of the ball.
The offense has minimal proven playmaking ability outside of Barkley. Second-round rookie Wan’Dale Robinson was easily providing the most promise, but he tore his ACL in Week 11. The defense has either solid long-term building blocks or forgettable stopgap talent who will be churned over the next two offseasons. This wasn’t supposed to be a competitive team considering their limitations in acquiring new personnel last free agency.
The Giants are a fun team, so enjoy them while you can. They have the inner track for an NFC Wild Card bid but appear unlikely to be able to win even one playoff game as long as Daniel Jones is under center and the other weaknesses exist.
Detroit Lions (+25000)
The Lions, who just beat the Giants by two scores, have the worst Super Bowl odds of any team playing on Thanksgiving. At 4-6, they’re the worst team, but they’ve won three straight games. We were having real conversations as to whether the lovable Dan Campbell would be fired if their 1-6 start continued to pile up losses.
This is a fun team that we just have to enjoy. Seeing first-round rookie Jameson Williams back on the practice field is a great sign that he’ll take the field sooner than later. There’s a lot of entertaining young talent in Detroit, and the team features one of the most impressively physical ground games in the NFL.
They’re a long way from the Super Bowl, but they can give the Bills a hard time in Week 12.