Week 9 of the NFL‘s action was at risk of being a boring week. Of course, things didn’t go chalk, and we saw some spectacular performances across the league. Running backs proved they matter as Ken Walker III and Joe Mixon pushed the Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl betting odds even higher.
We’re breaking down the latest 2023 Super Bowl odds in the aftermath of Week 9 and heading into Week 10. While the Seahawks and Bengals are rising, the Los Angeles Chargers and Rams are falling. Let’s dive in.
NFL Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 10
We’re here to make sure you’re locking in the best payoffs for all of your NFL betting picks. Each franchise has a varying record, but as you can see below, they don’t all offer the same betting odds. Our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook are my go-to, thanks to their favorable odds and betting options.
For example, a $100 bet on the team with the best Super Bowl odds — Buffalo at +300 — would pay a $300 profit if they manage to win Super Bowl LVII. Let’s take a look at the latest 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds and break down the teams whose odds present the best value.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1300)
With three wins in their last four games and all five in their last seven, the Bengals continue to trend upward. Now 5-4 and right behind the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, the Bengals should feel much better about their ability to get back to the playoffs entering their bye week. They need to thank Joe Mixon for their comfortable 42-21 win against the Panthers this week.
Mixon had a career week, producing 153 rushing yards and 58 receiving yards. Better yet, he added four rushing touchdowns and a receiving score. With 53.10 fantasy points, Mixon tied Shaun Alexander’s outburst in 2002 as the third-most fantasy points scored in one game. Mixon needed just 2.4 points to surpass Clinton Portis’ record, and he likely would’ve if he had played more than 65% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Despite that missed opportunity, the real story is how the Bengals finally didn’t have to rely on Joe Burrow to win. Mixon took the challenge and excelled, allowing Burrow to throw a season-low 28 times for 206 yards. For once, this offense had balance and the team didn’t have to sweat out a win.
Beating a struggling Carolina team doesn’t suddenly change who the Bengals are, but upcoming games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and New England are winnable. Getting to 10 wins will be the big milestone and will require beating one of Kansas City, Cleveland with Deshaun Watson, Buffalo, or Baltimore.
Mixon’s MVP performance in Week 9 was his most efficient game as a rusher and second-best as a receiver. I wouldn’t expect it to happen again, seeing as he hadn’t broken the 100-yard mark on the ground since Week 11 of 2021 and had 100 or more total yards only once in Week 1. The Bengals’ revamped offensive line simply hasn’t made a big difference.
But I like the Bengals’ odds to be an ascending AFC presence. This win confirms that feeling, and this is likely the last time you’ll be able to get them at such value.
Seattle Seahawks (+3500)
I can’t believe we’re talking about Geno Smith as an MVP candidate at this point in the season, but my 2013 NFL Draft takes sure are looking better now than they were six months ago. I’m kidding, but Smith’s emergence as someone who the Seahawks will need to franchise tag or extend after this season is an amazing development.
This coaching staff had no idea he’d be this good, either, considering they waited to trade Russell Wilson until this season and had Geno in competition with Drew Lock in the preseason. Geno has responded with a league-leading completion rate of 73.1%, 15 touchdowns to only four interceptions, and a solid 7.8 yards per average attempt. It’s a low-volume attack but extremely efficient.
The Seahawks set him up for success with a fantastic class of rookies to elevate this roster. Running back Ken Walker III is running away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, producing seven touchdowns over the last five games. Rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas have been spectacular, and cornerback Tariq Woolen is establishing himself as a long-term starter.
In Seattle’s four straight wins, this team is showing great offensive balance and rapid defensive improvement. They rank fourth in points scored and 11th in yards produced. But their defense was a trainwreck in the first five weeks, and that has quickly changed.
I wish this team could’ve added a stud pass rusher at the trade deadline but also understand why they wouldn’t have paid the draft pick price for Brian Burns or Bradley Chubb. This team is legitimately good in an open NFC. I don’t think they’re any worse than the 8-1 Vikings and are only clearly behind the Eagles.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)
There’s no question that Justin Herbert is a good NFL quarterback. However, despite the gaudy numbers he’s posted throughout his first two-plus seasons, I have a hard time mentioning him amongst the NFL’s elite passers. I think his big arm and great athleticism have covered up his tendency to dump the ball off and struggle to consistently create chunk plays.
This isn’t the best timing for this criticism, as Herbert is making do without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup. He’s played several games with an XFL-worthy rotation of wide receivers. But he also needed 43 pass attempts to score 20 points and produce 245 passing yards against the NFL’s worst secondary.
Herbert’s inability to punch the ball into the end zone wasn’t an issue in 2021 when the Chargers ranked fourth in offensive scoring rate, but they’ve dropped to 13th this season. This unit’s struggles rushing the ball are certainly not on Herbert. There’s just something off when a supposedly top-five quarterback is converting third downs at the 13th-highest rate and seemingly doesn’t give his playmakers an accurate pass on conversion opportunities.
All might be solved with the return of his star receivers, whenever that is. In the meantime, with San Francisco and Kansas City looming over the next two weeks, Herbert has to be the man in charge. Like I’ve preached with Tua Tagovailoa in prior years, Herbert deserves some grace because so much is on his shoulders.
All eyes will be on the third-year passer as the pressure of the playoffs builds over the remaining nine games on their schedule.
Los Angeles Rams (+5000)
It’s not fair to say the Rams are a bad team. They simply have a disaster of an offense being held back by a horrible offensive line and a quarterback who has clearly regressed. At 3-5 after a last-second loss to the Buccaneers and continuing to fall behind the Seahawks and 49ers, the Rams are almost out of the playoff race.
Matthew Stafford’s play has been shockingly poor, but it has gone back to the end of last year’s regular season. In his last 11 regular season games, Stafford has more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (14), a 6.87 yards per attempt, and an 83 passer rating. Thankfully Stafford produced two good playoff games against the Buccaneers and 49ers last year, or else the Rams would’ve been regretting their trade for him for years to come.
With the perspective of how Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers have played this year, it’s probably not surprising Stafford has suffered such a setback. The older quarterbacks are struggling as defenses have forced them to play against more two-high zone looks. The offensive lines of several of these teams have also been bad, making things harder for quarterbacks who have proven they need effective ground games.
There’s not much the Rams can do to fix a line they’ve ignored investing in for far too long until the offseason. At best, they can revamp the unit and hope for internal improvement, and try again next year. With rumors Sean McVay prefers to retire with the core of Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Jalen Ramsey, there’s a limited timeframe for this iteration of this team.
Stafford can be cut after 2023 with $18.5 million of dead cap from 2024 through 2026, but that is looking more attractive as the weeks go by.