Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 13.
We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.
Bye Week Schedule
- Week 13: None!
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thursday)
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears last won in the United States in Week 5 (vs. Panthers) and this streak might not end any time soon (Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Lions, Seahawks, and Packers to end this regular season).
QB: Are the Bears protecting Caleb Williams? He hasn’t thrown an interception during this losing streak, but he also has seen the majority of his throws over that stretch travel no more than five yards downfield.
Offense: Chicago is averaging 2.1 points per drive at home and 1.1 on the road this season.
Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Bears have allowed just seven touchdowns on 17 red zone trips.
Fantasy: Roschon Johnson now has six one-yard touchdown runs this season, a number that leads the position.
Betting: The Bears are just 1-4 ATS in their past five games played on short rest.
Detroit Lions
Team: Three of Detroit’s next five games do not come on a Sunday (Thursdays in each of the next two weeks and a Monday Nighter in San Francisco to conclude Week 17).
QB: In Weeks 1-7, Jared Goff averaged 13 yards per blitzed pass attempt, a rate that has dropped to 5.2 since.
Offense: After running for three scores on Sunday against the Colts, Detroit now has 22 straight games with at least one rushing touchdown.
Defense: Opponents have picked up under 30% of their third down opportunities against the Lions in four of their past five games (last two weeks: five-of-22, 22.7%).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs was great last season and produced 7.7% over PPR expectations – he’s +40.1% through 12 weeks this season!
Betting: The Lions have covered six of their past eight games when playing on short rest.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday)
New York Giants
Team: The Giants averaged under a point per drive in Tommy DeVito’s season debut, something they did three times this season under Daniel Jones.
QB: Tommy DeVito threw 31 passes against the Buccaneers and totaled exactly one completion of 15+ air yards.
Offense: The Giants have had at least as many turnovers as offensive touchdowns five times this season (Weeks 1-4-6-8-12).
Defense: The Giants have allowed opponents to pick up at least 40% of third downs in four straight games (they had one such game this season prior).
Fantasy: New York was only able to get off five passes in the first half last week, leaving Malik Nabers without a target for the first 30 minutes.
Betting: The Giants are 12-4 ATS in their past 16 games played on short rest.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: The Cowboys already have a Thursday win under their belt this season. Can you name the only team in the NFL currently with two Thursday night wins this season? (the answer is posted in this section for the correct response)
QB: Cooper Rush completed 12-of-14 passes on first down against the Commanders and 12-of-18 passes otherwise.
Offense: The Cowboys have scored on under one-third of their drives in three straight games (Weeks 1-9: one such game).
Defense: Dallas has allowed 3+ offensive touchdowns in six straight games.
Fantasy: Five quarterbacks have at least 24 completions and 245 passing yards in each of their past two games: Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, and, of course, Cooper Rush.
Betting: The Cowboys have failed to cover six straight home games, and overs are 14-4 in the past 18 games they have played in Jerry’s World.
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (Thursday)
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami has allowed under 20 points in three straight games – since 2011, they’ve run such a streak up to four straight games just once (Weeks 9-13, 2021).
QB: Tua Tagovailoa’s average depth of throw in touchdowns in 2022 was 14.1 yards. Last season, that number was 13.2 yards. This season? 4.5 yards.
Offense: The Dolphins have averaged over 2.0 points per drive in five straight games (their peak this season prior to this run was 1.8).
Defense: Miami has not allowed a run of over 20 yards since Week 7 (five straight games).
Fantasy: Jaylen Waddle’s breakout (28.4 fantasy points after totaling 21.9 in his three games prior) was backed up by an uptick in usage-based expectations (16.5 expected points, Weeks 1-11: 8.0).
Betting: The Dolphins have covered five of their past six games on short rest.
Green Bay Packers
Team: Green Bay was 3-6 last season before winning six of eight games to close the regular season, a run that started with wins in Weeks 11-12, one of which was a road divisional victory. They’ve won in Weeks 11-12 this season, one of which was a road divisional game.
QB: Jordan Love misfired on six of seven deep passes in the win over the 49ers last week, the first time he has failed to complete multiple deep passes since Week 5 of last season (he was six-of-six on such passes in Week 11 against the Bears).
Offense: Did they figure something out? Green Bay scored a touchdown on all five red zone drives against San Francisco, which is nice growth for a team that scored a touchdown on just six-of-15 (40%) red zone trips over their three games prior.
Defense: The Packers allowed the 49ers to average just 0.5 yards per carry before contact on Sunday, a category in which they rank sixth best in the league this season.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs has cleared PPR fantasy expectations by 29% over his past five games (four games with 20+ points over that stretch).
Betting: Unders are 7-3-1 in Green Bay’s past 11 games played at Lambeau Field.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Friday)
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders pulled off the upset in Kansas City last year, but they entered that game after dropping 63 points on the Chargers the week prior. This year’s team enters play having scored 55 points over their past 11 quarters of action and is in the midst of a seven-game skid.
QB: Gardner Minshew posted a 4.9-yard average depth of throw in Sunday’s loss to the Broncos, the third time in four games his rate was under five yards.
Offense: The Raiders entered the red zone a season-high five times on Sunday against the Broncos – those drives netted just 16 points.
Defense: Vegas has allowed points on the majority of opponent drives in four straight games (last two weeks: 72.2%).
Fantasy: CeeDee Lamb (11.2), Malik Nabers (11.1), Garrett Wilson (10.1), and Ja’Marr Chase (9.9) – that’s your entire list of players averaging more targets per game since Week 3 than Jakobi Meyers (9.6).
Betting: The Raiders have seen eight of their past 11 games played on short rest go under the total.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Kansas City has won eight games by seven or fewer points this season, tying the most such wins this franchise has had in a single regular season since 2000. Over that stretch, only six times has a team won nine such games in a regular season:
- 2023 Steelers (lost in Wild Card)
- 2022 Vikings (lost in Wild Card)
- 2019 Seahawks (lost in Divisional Round)
- 2015 Broncos (won Super Bowl)
- 2012 Colts (lost in Wild Card)
- 2003 Panthers (lost in Super Bowl)
QB: Patrick Mahomes has completed all nine of his third-down passes over the past two weeks (last five games: 36-of-44, 81.8%).
Offense: The Chiefs scored a touchdown on three of eight drives against the Panthers, 37.5%, their highest rate in a game this season.
Defense: Against Carolina on Sunday, Kansas City allowed just 1.25 yards per carry after contact, a rate that was 25.1% better than anything this defense had produced through 11 weeks.
Fantasy: Is Patrick Mahomes here to save your fantasy season (if there is a season left to save)? The former MVP has thrown six touchdown passes on 70 attempts over his past two games after throwing six scores on 190 passes in the five games prior.
Betting: Unders are 7-1 in the Chiefs’ past eight games played on short rest.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Los Angeles embarks upon its third two-game road trip of the season. In the previous two trips, they’ve won the first game and lost the second one (Week 14: at Kansas City).
QB: There have been 50 instances this season in which a QB has thrown 3+ touchdown passes in a game — Justin Herbert’s name is not on that list.
Offense: In Weeks 8-12, Los Angeles has picked up just 32.8% of their third downs (Weeks 1-7: 42.5%).
Defense: The Chargers have allowed more than three points in only two first quarters this season, something that has allowed this team to function from a position of power (7-3-1 record in first quarters).
Fantasy: During Los Angeles’ first two drives on Monday night, JK Dobbins was involved in 11 of 24 plays (six carries and five targets).
Betting: The Chargers have seen under tickets cash in seven of their past eight games against the NFC.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Five of the Falcons’ six home games this season have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Atlanta’s recent struggles have been the result of Kirk Cousins not living up to expectations. In Weeks 10-11, he completed just 60.4% of his passes with zero scores and two interceptions when not blitzed (Weeks 8-9: 82.1% with six touchdowns and zero interceptions).
Offense: The Falcons scored 3.1 points per drive in Week 8 against the Bucs – in Week 9 their rate fell to 2.5, in Week 10 to 1.6, and in the Week 11 disaster against the Broncos, just 0.6.
Defense: Atlanta hasn’t forced a turnover in three straight games (they only had two such games through the first eight weeks this season).
Fantasy: Drake London has twice as many top-20 finishes this season (six) as last.
Betting: The Falcons have covered five games this season, four of which came by four or fewer points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are 8-3 and held a lead with one minute left in two of their three losses.
QB: The Russell Wilson “moon balls” get a lot of attention, and they are fun, but over 39% of his attempts in all five of his starts have traveled less than five yards downfield (season rate: 45%).
Offense: Scoreless in the first quarter on Thursday night, snapping a 22-quarter scoring streak (it took a missed field goal and a failed fourth down).
Defense: In the Thursday night snowstorm, the Steelers allowed a touchdown on 30% of drives (their worst mark of the season) and 2.4 points per drive (their second-worst mark).
Fantasy: Jaylen Warren played a season-high 56.7% of the snaps against the Browns and upped his season rate of percentage of carries, gaining 5+ yards to 34.7%.
Betting: The Steelers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 played on short rest (the past five have all gone over the closing total).
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: There have been an average of 67.3 points scored in Cincinnati’s past four home games (they’ve lost three of those contests).
QB: If you remove the weird Week 1 loss to the Patriots, Joe Burrow’s 17-game pace is 4,869 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, and seven interceptions (2011 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns, and six interceptions).
Offense: Cincinnati has scored on 32 of 33 red zone trips – that’s a 97% rate, putting them in position to challenge the Rams’ 98.2% rate from last season.
Defense: The Bengals are allowing 8.4 yards per pass and 12.9 yards per completion over their past four games, not intercepting a single pass in those 122 attempts.
Burrow to Chase… Brown for the touchdown!
📺: #LVvsCIN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/WF7nEBn8Kl— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Fantasy: Chase Brown has three straight top-10 finishes, a streak not amassed by Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, or De’Von Achane this season.
Betting: Six of the Bengals’ past seven games coming out of their bye have gone over the total.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Three straight Cardinal games have seen a team fail to score 10 points (last week: 16-6 loss to the Seahawks).
QB: Kyler Murray was pressured on 16 dropbacks by the Seahawks last week – he completed two-of-10 passes for 29 yards with an interception in those spots.
Offense: The Cardinals were held without a red zone touchdown on Sunday in Seattle, their first such game of the season (they had eight such scores in their three games prior).
Defense: Over their past three games, Arizona has allowed points on just 25% of drives (Weeks 1-8: 50.7%).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr. has finished just two weeks as a top-45 receiver since September.
Betting: Overs were 3-1 through four weeks in Cardinal games, but they are just 1-5-1 since.
Minnesota Vikings
Team: This is Minnesota’s first of three straight at home, following four of five games on the road.
QB: Over the past two weeks, Sam Darnold has turned 19 play-action passes into 306 yards, three scores, and zero interceptions.
Offense: Minnesota has averaged over 38 yards per drive in three of its past four games (it had not averaged even 34 yards per drive before).
Defense: The Vikings allowed the Bears to gain only 1.56 yards per carry after contact on Sunday (second-best showing by this defense of the season),
Fantasy: Jordan Addison scored in three of four November games, posting top-25 finishes at the position in all three of those instances.
Betting: Unders are 4-1 when the Vikings play at home this season.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Every Colt road game this season has been decided by one possession (most recent: Week 11’s 28-27 win in New York over the Jets).
QB: In Week 12, Anthony Richardson completed just 11-of-28 passes (39.3%) with zero touchdowns. He now has as many games this season with 25+ attempts and a sub-40% completion rate as the rest of the NFL (two),
Offense: Indianapolis was forced to punt on 60% of their drives on Sunday against the Lions, their highest rate this season.
Defense: The Colts are encouraging the checkdowns. In Week 11 against the Jets, their opponent’s aDOT was 4.3 yards and last week, the Lions posted a 5.7 aDOT against Indy (prior to this run, no opponent had a sub-6.5-yard aDOT against the Colts).
Fantasy: The return of Richardson under center has decimated Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency. In those two weeks, Taylor has produced 58.4% under expectations (36 touches for 95 yards and zero scores).
Betting: The Colts fell to Malik Willis’ Packers in Week 2, but they’ve covered four of five road games since then.
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are tied with the Panthers for most losses by 15+ points this season (five). New England had two such results all of last season.
QB: The ups and downs of a rookie QB. Drake Maye’s completion percentage marks for the month of November (ending with the most recent): 70.7%, 60%, 75%, and 59.5%.
Offense: After scoring on over 40% of their drives in consecutive games (at Bears and vs. Rams), New England managed points on just one-of-12 drives in Miami (8.3%).
Defense: The Patriots have allowed an opponent to post a 125+ passer rating twice this season, both times in the past two weeks (Rams and Dolphins).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t scored in three straight games and his production relative to expectations over that stretch is -41.1%. He now has five games this season with single-digit PPR points – three games with under five points to offset his three 20+ point games.
Betting: The Patriots are just 2-13-2 ATS over their past 17 at home.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
Seattle Seahawks
Team: After this week, the Seahawks play a playoff hopeful in three consecutive weeks (Cardinals, Packers, and Vikings).
QB: Geno Smith posted a quick pass rate of 64.5% on Sunday, his highest rate since Week 5.
Offense: Seattle pulled off a big win over the Cardinals on Sunday despite punting on half of their possessions, their highest rate of the season.
Defense: The Seahawks have intercepted a pass in five straight games, a run coming on the heels of five straight games without an interception.
Fantasy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of five receivers to score 19 PPR points in three straight games this season (others: A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers).
Betting: It’s been a weird run for the Seahawks – they are 1-4-4 ATS over their past nine games against the AFC.
New York Jets
Team: Aaron Rodgers didn’t lose more than three games in three seasons while with the Packers. If the Jets can’t upset the Seahawks or Dolphins over the next two weeks, the 2024 Jets will have a pair of four-game losing streaks in just over two months.
- TRIVIA ANSWER: The Jets are currently the only two with multiple Thursday wins this season.
QB: Rodgers has 20 pressured dropbacks over his past two games and has totaled 19 passing yards in those instances.
Offense: Baby steps? New York scored on 30% of their drives in Week 9, a rate that ticked up to 33.3% in Week 10 and 41.7% in the Week 11 loss to the Colts.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, New York allowed just 1.39 points per drive, a rate that has spiked to 2.66 since (91.4% increase).
Fantasy: Davante Adams has as many top-30 finishes with the Raiders as the Jets this season (one).
Betting: The Jets are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games coming off their bye.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Tennessee Titans
Team: Tennessee has 21 turnovers this season, their most through 11 games since 2015. They’ve forced just nine turnovers, their second-lowest mark at this point in the season during the 2000s.
QB: Will Levis opened last week at Houston with 11 straight completions (177 yards and a touchdown)
Offense: The Titans had multiple drives reach the red zone in each of their first nine games — they have had a total of two such drives over the past two weeks.
Defense: The Tennessee defense has shown glimpses of promise, but they are coughing up chunk plays at an alarming rate.
Yards Per Completion Allowed
- Week 8: 6.3
- Week 9: 7.1
- Week 10: 11.7
- Week 11: 12.3
- Week 12: 12.4
Fantasy: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored in six of seven games and is producing 50.6% over expectations this season. For reference, Troy Franklin, Greg Dortch, and Tyler Johnson are averaging more expected points than him this season.
Betting: The Titans have played four games against the NFC this season, all against the North – they failed to cover each of those contests.
Washington Commanders
Team: Eight of Washington’s 12 games this season have been decided by a single score, including each of their past five.
QB: Are the ribs bothering Jayden Daniels? Since getting banged up in Week 7, he’s completed just 31.6% of passes when under duress (Weeks 1-6: 57.1%).
Offense: The Rams have scored under 2.25 points per drive three times this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks (at Eagles and vs. Cowboys).
Defense: Washington has allowed at least 26 points in all three games during this losing streak — they allowed more than 15 points in just two of their six previous games.
Fantasy: Noah Brown has quietly seen at least six targets in four of five games, a run that all started with the Hail Mary catch against the Bears.
Betting: Overs have cashed in the Commanders’ past six games against the AFC.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans
Team: Houston’s last win against a starting quarterback that hasn’t either been benched at some point this season or started the season on the bench – Week 5 vs. Buffalo (they are 3-4 since with wins over Drake Maye, Anthony Richardson, and Cooper Rush).
QB: C.J. Stroud completed a season-high seven deep passes against the Titans on Sunday (it is worth noting that he has thrown a deep interception in three consecutive games).
Offense: Over their past six games, the Texans have had 26 red zone drives – they have just 11 touchdowns to show for those drives.
Defense: In a home game against the Titans last week, the Texans allowed a 118.4 passer rating, their second-worst showing of the season (Will Levis averaged 11.6 yards per pass attempt).
Fantasy: C.J. Stroud was QB7 twice in September (Weeks 1 and 4) – those are his only QB1 finishes this season.
Betting: The Texans have covered eight of their past nine road divisional games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: The Jaguars are 3-14 over their past 17 games, the worst mark in the NFL over that stretch (point differential: -131).
QB: Mac Jones has earned grades of D+ and D per our QB+ metric in his two starts this season (Weeks 10-11).
Offense: During this second four-game losing streak of the season, Jacksonville has converted just 11 of 40 third downs (27.5%).
Defense: In their Week 11 loss to the Lions, Jacksonville gave up 5.78 points per drive, the first team to allow over five points per drive since the 2021 Eagles (they did it in Weeks 4 and 18).
Fantasy: Is Brian Thomas Jr. on a Tee Higgins trajectory?
- Thomas’ First 11 NFL Games: 42 catches, 66.7% catch rate, 689 yards, 5 TDs
- Higgins’ First 11 NFL Games: 48 catches, 63.2% catch rate, 673 yards, 5 TDs
Betting: The Jaguars are currently 3-2 ATS at home, seeking their first winning ATS season at home since 2017.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams play three of their next four games on the road, with their lone home game during that stretch coming against the Buffalo Bills.
QB: Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his past five games (zero such efforts in his first six games of this season).
Offense: For the first time this season, Los Angeles has scored at least two points per drive in consecutive games.
Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Rams have allowed a first down on 50% of third down attempts (Weeks 1-9: 36%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua was ejected against the Seahawks for throwing a “punch”. If you extend his last four full games for a full season – 136 catches for 1,887 yards.
Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the Rams’ past nine road games.
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have one win this season against a team with a .500 record or better (wins: Panthers, Cowboys, Falcons, and Browns).
QB: Derek Carr is on a career pace in passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate.
Offense: The Saints picked up 50% of their third downs in the Week 10 win over the Browns, something that was nice to see after converting just 27.3% of their third down attempts in Weeks 8-10
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, New Orleans created pressure on 38.1% of opponent dropbacks (Weeks 6-12: 26.3%).
Fantasy: Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 65+ yard catch in consecutive games – the last player to do it in three straight was Tyreek Hill in 2018 with the Chiefs.
Betting: Pick a side and commit – seven of the Saints’ past nine home games have been decided by at least 12 points different than the spread implies.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Tampa Bay closed last regular season by winning five of six games, a run they might need to replicate this year to make the playoffs.
QB: Baker Mayfield completed five of six deep passes on Sunday against the Giants with Mike Evans back in the mix. He completed five-of-17 such attempts in the three games prior.
Offense: The Bucs have scored a touchdown on 12-of-15 red zone drives over their past four games (80%).
Defense: In Week 12 against the Giants, the Bucs allowed seven points on 10 drives (0.7 points per drive). In their four games prior, 3.1 points were allowed per drive.
Fantasy: Rookie running backs over the past decade to have multiple games with at least 40 rushing yards and six receptions: Alvin Kamara (five), Saquon Barkley (four), Najee Harris (three), James Robinson (two), Bijan Robinson (two), and Bucky Irving (two).
Betting: After six straight overs, consecutive Tampa Bay games have checked in under the closing total.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina has played three straight games decided by three or fewer points (their first eight games this season were all decided by double digits).
QB: Bryce Young averaged 7.5 yards per pass against Kansas City, his best showing in a start since Week 16 of last season (vs. Packers).
Offense: The Panthers averaged 44.6 yards per drive against the Chiefs, 23.9% better than in any other game this season.
Defense: Over their past three games, Carolina has allowed a touchdown on just five-of-12 (41.7%) of red zone trips (NFL average: 56.7%).
Fantasy: Until the usage changes, there’s no reason to hesitate in playing Chuba Hubbard – he’s cleared 18.5 expected fantasy points in three straight games, his second such streak of the season.
Betting: Over their past seven Week 13 games, the Panthers are 1-6 ATS with overs going 6-1.
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Now is the time – the Eagles were 10-1 through 11 games last season (9-2 this season) before stumbling to the finish line by losing five of six to round out the regular season.
QB: Jalen Hurts’ quick pass rate has increased in three consecutive weeks, and he’s posted a triple-digit passer rating in six of his past seven games.
Offense: The Eagles have scored a touchdown on 29.4% of their drives this season, the exact mark they had through 11 games last season.
Defense: Opponents are six-of-34 (17.6%) on third downs against Philadelphia over the past three weeks.
Fantasy: A.J. Brown has a deep reception in all eight of his games this season and an end zone look in six of those contests.
Betting: The Eagles have covered five of their past six games, this coming on the heels of a 1-3 ATS stretch.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Baltimore had a late bye last season (Week 13) and came out of it firing with four straight wins (+73 point differential). Their bye awaits them in Week 14 before the fate of their season is decided (Weeks 15-18: Giants — Steelers — Texans — Browns).
QB: Lamar Jackson has thrown a deep touchdown pass (15+ air yards) in four straight games, matching the second-longest streak of his career.
Offense: As explosive as the Ravens can be, they’ve been blanked in the first quarter five times this season, including each of their past three games.
Defense: There are 14 defenses this season allowing over 125 rushing yards per game this season — Baltimore hasn’t allowed a single team to do that.
Fantasy: Finally, a middling performance from Zay Flowers on Monday night. Prior to the win over the Chargers, his yardage total has been as hit-and-miss as any pass catcher in the NFL — in his previous nine games, he had four over 110 yards and five with under 40.
Betting: Overs are 11-4 in the Ravens’ past 15 games played on short rest.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (SNF)
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers have lost consecutive games on two separate occasions this season – the last time they did that was in 2020.
QB: Brandon Allen was fine when not pressured (75% complete), but was just two-of-nine when feeling the heat.
Offense: The 49ers averaged 2.31 points per drive in Weeks 1-11, a rate that dropped to 0.83 under Allen in Lambeau on Sunday.
Defense: San Francisco creates pressure on 36.3% of non-blitzed dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in the league through 12 weeks.
Fantasy: Is there a more difficult player to rank with confidence annually than Deebo Samuel Sr.?
- 2021: 37.6% production over expectation
- 2022: 13.7% production under expectations
- 2023: 35.2% production over expectations
- 2024: 10.2% production under expectations
Betting: Over tickets have come through in each of the 49ers’ past five primetime games.
Buffalo Bills
Team: A seventh straight win would match Buffalo’s longest single-season run of the 2000s (2022).
QB: Why is Josh Allen’s interception rate (1.5%) trending for a career-low? His quick pass rate sits at 67%, easily a career-high (2023: 58.4%).
Offense: The Bills have picked at least 50% of their third downs in four straight games (one such effort in their first seven games).
Defense: Buffalo is allowing opponents to convert 40.8% of third downs, its worst rate since 2012 (44%).
Defense: Patience. The Bills blitz at the third lowest rate, joining the Eagles and Ravens in the bottom-5 of that stat as teams with Super Bowl dreams.
Fantasy: James Cook has six RB1 finishes this season, thanks to having eight more rushing touchdowns on 100 fewer carries than a season ago.
Betting: Overs have cashed in six straight Buffalo home games.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (MNF)
Cleveland Browns
Team: Over the past month, the Browns are 2-2 with wins over the Ravens/Steelers and losses to the Chargers/Saints. Their point differential across those four games is -28.
QB: Even in the conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).
Offense: Cleveland picked up 53.3% of their third downs in the upset win over the Ravens in Week 8. That rate fell to 35.3% in Week 9, 23.1% in Week 11, and 10% in Week 12 (one-of-10).
Defense: In their first five games, the Browns allowed 6.2 net yards per pass attempt, a rate that has swelled to 8.3 since (up 33.9%).
Fantasy: The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).
Betting: The Browns have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 games played on extended rest. In 202, his boom/bust rate was 0% (he had the same number of 10+ yard runs as carries that were stopped for no gain).
Denver Broncos
Team: Could the Broncos post their first double-digit win season since 2015? They need to win three of five games to close the season. Based on lookahead lines, their average spread moving forward is +2.3 points.
QB: Bo Nix has completed 12-of-14 red zone passes (six touchdowns) over the past three weeks.
Offense: The Broncos allow pressure on just 30% of dropbacks, the sixth lowest in the NFL (they ranked 28th last season).
Defense: The Broncos were embarrassed in Baltimore, giving up 41 points during the Week 9 loss. They’ve allowed 41 points in the three weeks since.
Fantasy: Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions – no rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).
Betting: The Broncos have seen eight of their past 10 home games played at home in Week 13 or later.