The NFL Draft always delivers a few surprises — and that’s largely because every team evaluates prospects differently, based on what they value most in a player. When you widen the comparison to include the consensus board, those differences become even more noticeable.
One NFL scout is predicting a first round that could look very different from what most people expect — including the possibility of one quarterback shocking everyone by being selected much earlier than anticipated.
‘Reaches’ Expected in Round 1
Every year in the NFL Draft, at least one major surprise tends to shake up the first round. Last year, six quarterbacks were taken within the first 12 picks — with the most unexpected move being Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons, just weeks after the team had signed Kirk Cousins to a massive deal.
Moves like that happen because there’s no way to truly know what teams are prioritizing internally — let alone how they view each individual prospect.
ESPN recently published a feature compiling insights from three Draft analysts — Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, and Field Yates — to highlight what’s heating up in the final days before the NFL Draft.
One major takeaway? This year’s first round is shaping up to be highly unpredictable. According to Matt Miller, a high-level scout told him to “expect the unexpected” on Day 1.
“This first round is going to be wild,” he explained, referring that the lack of consensus among scouts regarding which prospects are truly “first-round talents” is a big reason for the unpredictability.
This year’s class may not be loaded with blue-chip prospects at the top, but it’s widely viewed as one that could produce a high number of solid starters throughout all seven rounds of the Draft.
One interesting detail is that not a single first-round pick has been traded so far, which could set the stage for even more surprises, with teams potentially trading up to land their favorite targets.
Some reaches are to be expected — especially in a class where the talent gap between players ranked in the top 20 and those in the top 50 isn’t all that significant. In those cases, teams may prefer to lock in the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round rookie contract, even if it means drafting a player earlier than projected.
Jaxson Dart Picked Before Shedeur Sanders?
One prediction that would definitely shock everyone on draft night is the possibility of Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart being selected before Shedeur Sanders. Once projected as a potential top-three pick, Sanders’ draft stock has dropped — and this scenario no longer feels that far-fetched.
The same scout who spoke about potential first-round surprises mentioned that some teams might actually prefer Jaxson Dart due to his athletic traits — including mobility, arm strength, and overall developmental upside.
While Shedeur Sanders is viewed as the safer prospect, showing stronger field vision and a better understanding of coverages, some teams believe his production ceiling may be limited — making it a risky move to spend a high pick on him.
If that scenario plays out, we could see a run on Sanders begin, with teams in the latter half of the first round potentially looking to trade up in order to secure the Colorado star.