NFL Rookie of the Year Candidates: Joe Burrow makes his case early

Several months ago, I wrote an article about Cincinnati Bengals rookie Joe Burrow’s performance through the first two games of the season. I used the Offensive Value Metric, a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to measure how important a player was to their offense, to evaluate his play. Naturally, the jury on Burrow was still out at that point, but at the time, I determined that he was playing at a level somewhere between “not bad” and “pretty decent.” However, since then, Burrow has improved quite a bit, and he has found himself in the NFL Rookie of the Year conversation, earning the accolade in some NFL midseason awards segments. As such, it’s time to take another look at Burrow’s OVM grades and see if he deserves all that acclaim.

Joe Burrow’s OVM grades have gone up significantly since the start of the season

While Burrow’s grades in his first two games were unspectacular, he has steadily improved as the season has progressed, which is why he is now being discussed in these NFL midseason awards segments. The chart below shows that shift. Burrow’s weekly grades are represented by the black dots, and the yellow line represents the season-long average OVM grade for quarterbacks.

Aside from a season-low grade of 14.8 against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, which was arguably his worst game of the season on multiple fronts, Burrow’s grades since Week 3 have been above the standard he set after the first two weeks, and well above the league average. That improvement has raised Burrow’s overall grade to 30.83, which currently ranks third in the NFL among all qualifying quarterbacks, not just rookies.

Even that doesn’t quite tell the full story, as one of the players ahead of him is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a significantly smaller sample size as he was benched for Burrow’s fellow rookie Tua Tagovailoa after Week 6. That means Burrow’s OVM grade ranks second among the current NFL starting quarterbacks. More importantly, he is ahead of his primary competition for NFL Rookie of the Year at his position, Justin Herbert, by more than two points. In short, Burrow is one of the most valuable quarterbacks to his team’s success in the NFL, and the most valuable rookie, which is a strong argument in favor of him taking home the award when the season is over.

Explaining Joe Burrow’s OVM grade

Given his high overall grade, it should be no surprise that the advanced metrics behind the OVM reflect very positively on Burrow. His 67% completion percentage, while unspectacular on the surface, is actually 5.7% higher than expected according to the NFL’s calculations, the second-highest differential in the NFL. The reason Burrow’s actual percentage is so low lies largely in how rarely his receivers have been open. 22.4% of Burrow’s pass attempts have been thrown into tight windows, more than every other quarterback aside from Mitchell Trubisky (interestingly, the Chicago Bears current starter, Nick Foles, is third on the list).

In other words, the circumstances Burrow has found himself in this season are more difficult than those faced by almost any other quarterback. As such, his completion percentage is far more impressive than it might seem, which gets to the core of why the OVM is giving Burrow such high grades. The metric values players who overperform given their circumstances, which is exactly what Burrow has done.

There are many other contenders for NFL Rookie of the Year in the midseason awards

Despite Joe Burrow’s success, he is far from guaranteed a victory in the race to become this season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. To start with, there are a not-insignificant number of wide receivers with higher average OVM grades than Burrow’s. The leader among them is Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings, with a grade of 37.29, the highest earned by any rookie so far. Luckily for Burrow, he has the distinct advantage of “not playing wide receiver” (as I mentioned in an earlier article about CeeDee Lamb, wide receivers almost never win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award). As such, I don’t think Burrow faces particularly serious competition on this front.

Another potential challenger is running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Historically, running backs perform very poorly on the OVM, but Edwards-Helaire is having a stellar rookie season as part of the prolific Kansas City Chiefs offense. That said, the talent surrounding him might actually hurt Edwards-Helaire’s chances because he is so clearly not the star in Kansas City, while Burrow is basically carrying his offense on his own.

Of course, Burrow’s primary competition for NFL Rookie of the Year, and the winner in many midseason awards segments, is Justin Herbert, whose impressive statistics are causing many to peg him as the current favorite. And were I an NFL betting man (and I definitely am not, please don’t take gambling advice from me), I would probably give Herbert the edge because box score statistics tend to factor very heavily in determining who wins the various NFL awards. However, if it was up to me, I would give the award to Burrow.

Yes, his box score statistics look worse, but the OVM data shows that Burrow has needed to overcome more challenges in order to succeed. One could very easily argue that, of the two quarterbacks, Burrow is the more valuable player to his team and is, therefore, more deserving of the award.

Of course, there is still plenty of season left. Perhaps Burrow’s overall statistics will improve, or perhaps Herbert’s OVM grade will increase. Or maybe a dark horse candidate, such as the aforementioned Tua, who had a stellar showing on Sunday, will emerge and steal the award out from under both of them. It’s impossible to say for certain at this point, but it’s going to be fun to watch the race play out no matter who wins in the end.

Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.