We continue to see the current NFL playoff picture shift with each passing week as teams jostle for position in those all-important spots. However, the current playoff picture only reveals so much at this point in the season.
So to help clarify the situation, our PFN NFL Playoff Predictor simulates the remaining games 10,000 times to produce playoff projections for all 32 teams. This data is refreshed after every game or following any major roster moves and injuries that could impact the playoff picture or the race for the No. 1 overall pick.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Dec. 20, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Houston Texans
5) Baltimore Ravens
6) Los Angeles Chargers
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4) Los Angeles Rams
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Washington Commanders
AFC North Playoff Picture
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Entering Week 16 weekend, the Steelers (10-4) hold a slight edge over the Ravens (9-5) in the AFC North standings. Will that hold? Let’s look at the projections.
Playoff Odds: Steelers (clinched), Ravens (97.4%)
Division Odds: Steelers (57%), Ravens (42.4%)
Win The AFC: Ravens (15%), Steelers (8.4%)
There are plenty of variations to consider here, but they all go out of the window should the Steelers complete the season sweep of the Ravens with a win on Saturday in Baltimore. Pittsburgh is currently a 6.5-point underdog (implied win odds: 29.9%, far lower than our 42.4%), and things get interesting if they lose.
Week 17-18 Schedules
- Steelers: vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals
- Ravens: at Texans, vs. Browns
Right now, we give Baltimore a 47.1% chance to win its final two games and Pittsburgh a 16.1% chance to do so. This is why our divisional odds are so tight despite the Steelers’ potential to wrap things up this weekend.
Pittsburgh remains the favorite. The Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals in their first meeting this season, while the Ravens fell to the Cleveland Browns, so we have on-the-field proof of how the Steelers can pick up ground even if they were to lose this week. However, they will move from a favorite to an underdog to win the division should Baltimore get the better of them on Saturday.
AFC Chase for the No. 1 Seed
The door opened briefly for the Bills (11-3) to potentially overtake the Chiefs (13-1) when Patrick Mahomes was injured in Week 16, but with the star quarterback fortunate to avoid a serious situation, the reigning champions are the heavy favorite to earn the first-round bye.
No. 1 Seed Odds: Chiefs (77.5%), Bills (19.5%)
This has been a two-horse race for the majority of the season, with Kansas City’s magic number now down to two (mix between Chiefs wins and Buffalo losses) to lock in the AFC’s top seed.
Left on the books for Kansas City’s regular season is a home game against the Texans (64.6% win expectancy) before consecutive road games in Pittsburgh (49.3%) and Denver (50.7%). Buffalo, meanwhile, will host the New England Patriots (93%) and New York Jets (84%) before another meeting with the Patriots (86.8%).
The Chiefs can secure the No. 1 seed as soon as this week, but it’s more likely that they will do so in Week 17.
NFC North Playoff Picture
Entering Week 16, the Lions (12-2) currently hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings (12-2).
Playoff Odds: Lions (clinched), Vikings (clinched)
Division Odds: Lions (56.6%), Vikings (35.9%)
Win The NFC: Lions (43.7%), Vikings (19.9%)
The best division in the NFL has a decent chance to come down to the final week of the season with the Vikings in Detroit trying to avenge a 31-29 Week 7 loss. Do we get there?
Prior to that showdown, the Lions play in Chicago (75.7% win expectancy) and San Francisco (67.3%), while the Vikings travel to Seattle (59%) before hosting Green Bay (52.1%).
As you can see, we favor these teams to win each of their next two games and set up a battle of 14-2 squads. Should Detroit win out, they not only earn the NFC North crown, they’d also earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed by way of holding the tiebreaker over the Eagles.
NFC South Playoff Picture
Entering this weekend, the Buccaneers (8-6) hold a one-game lead over the Atlanta Falcons (7-7), but with little to no room for error.
Playoff Odds: Buccaneers (82.5%), Falcons (26.7%)
Division Odds: Buccaneers (78.2%), Falcons (21%)
Win The NFC: Buccaneers (9.6%), Falcons (1.2%)
The Buccaneers are in a good spot despite not having the benefit of the tiebreaker (they lost both Falcons games earlier in the season). Nevertheless, we have them with a win expectancy north of 70% in all three games to close the regular season, giving them full control of their own destiny.
Atlanta doesn’t have a tough stretch to close (Giants, Commanders, and Panthers), but they can’t afford to give away any of those games. We only give them a 19.1% chance to win out, and even if they were to do that, they need a loss from Tampa Bay that is unlikely to come.
The Falcons are alive in the divisional race, but the cards are certainly stacked against them at this point.
NFC West Playoff Picture
As things stand, the Rams (8-6) currently hold the tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks (8-6), with the Arizona Cardinals (7-7) still very much in the mix.
Playoff Odds: Rams (59%), Seahawks (42.4%), Cardinals (22.6%), 49ers (6.2%)
Division Odds: Rams (47.4%), Seahawks (32.4%), Cardinals (17.1%), 49ers (3.2%)
Win The NFC: Rams (4.8%), Seahawks (2.5%), Cardinals (2.1%), 49ers (0.3%)
If you have four teams alive, do you truly have zero? Someone has to represent this division, and there’s a chance we see two teams from the NFC West in the postseason. Yet, at the moment, all four teams hold a sub-1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Despite a tie at the top of the standings, we give the Rams a fairly sizeable edge moving forward. We currently favor them for all of their remaining games (at Jets, vs. Cardinals, and vs. Seahawks), and if they take care of business, they win the division.
There is, of course, a chance that we get Week 18 drama with the Seahawks and Rams playing in Los Angeles, but Seattle would likely need to knock off the Vikings this week (41% win expectancy) and hold off a sporadic Bears team in Chicago next week (57.6%) to make that the case.
The Cardinals aren’t likely to chase down the two teams ahead of them in the standings or make the playoffs in any capacity. However, they are in Carolina this week (68.7% win expectancy) and could see their chances of earning a postseason invite spike should Seattle and/or Los Angeles suffer a setback.
The San Francisco 49ers are on this list as a courtesy. Not only are they operating from last place, their lone remaining home game this season comes against the Lions (32.7% win expectancy). They don’t have any layup games left (MIA, DET, ARI), nor do they have any room for error.
The NFC is almost assured to have a new representative in the Super Bowl this season.
NFC Wild Card Picture
While the seven playoff teams in the AFC are close to being locked in, there’s plenty of jockeying left to do in the NFC over the final three weeks of the regular season.
Odds To Make the Playoffs (among current non-division leaders)
1) Minnesota Vikings: Clinched
2) Green Bay Packers: 96.9%
3) Washington Commanders: 62.3%
4) Seattle Seahawks: 42.4%
5) Atlanta Falcons: 26.7%
6) Arizona Cardinals: 22.6%
There are obviously several moving pieces for the NFC’s final spot. Green Bay has a 79.8% chance to round out Week 16 with a win over the Saints and eliminate some of the drama in this playoff picture.
For the final Wild Card spot, the Commanders project as the favorite. Yes, they get the Eagles this week, but with the Falcons (61.8% win expectancy) and Dallas Cowboys (66%) following the tough divisional test, they should still control their own destiny.
This picture can essentially sort itself out if the Seahawks fall to the Vikings this week. Pull off that upset, though, and the NFC playoff machine will be getting a workout heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
NFC Chase for the No. 1 Seed
The race for the top seed in the NFC tightened last week, and we now have three teams (Lions, Vikings, and Eagles), all holding an identical 12-2 record.
No. 1 Seed Odds: Lions (39.7%), Eagles (33.5%), Vikings (23%)
As mentioned, the Lions are the team that controls their own destiny here. They hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles and meet the Vikings in Week 18 — win all three games, and they earn the first-round bye.
That said, Detroit can’t afford to have its Week 15 loss to Buffalo linger. Philadelphia is favored this week in Washington. If they can get past that game, they host the Cowboys (85.4% win expectancy) and the Giants (93%) for a strong chance to win out. This is a team that has won 10 straight games and is not subject to the goofy scheduling over the holiday week.
The top seed in the NFC is far from decided with just three weeks to go!
Odds To Win the Super Bowl
There is plenty of football to be played, but as of Week 16, here is where we are when it comes to the odds of winning the final game of the season.
1) Detroit Lions: 32.3%
2) Minnesota Vikings: 9.8%
3) Buffalo Bills: 8.6%
4) Philadelphia Eagles: 8.6%
5) Green Bay Packers: 7.1%
6) Baltimore Ravens: 7.1%
7) Kansas City Chiefs: 6.5%
8) Pittsburgh Steelers: 4.6%
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3.7%
10) Houston Texans: 3.4%
11) Washington Commanders: 2.5%
12) Denver Broncos: 2.2%
13) Los Angeles Chargers: 1.2%
